i agree with your analysis of every film nommed for BP, and i think it will come down to two films, all due to timing, and political atmosphere: LMS, because it is a bright, sun-shiney kind of film in bleak times; and Babel. Bush has lost control of both the house and the senate (phew!), and i believe that many savvy and better informed citizens feel they've been lied to and deceived in favour of profit and personal gain for Bush and his friends. It's a wide open field and a guess, and although i preferred both THE DEPARTED and LFIJ from striclty a "crafted" perspective, i enjoyed LMS more. But having said that, i believe that Babel will take home the big prize, and Director and BP will split once again. either way, go marty!!!

Since the SAG awards, I have this feeling that "Little Miss Sunshine" will upset. It's exactly where "Crash" was last year....a movie released earlier in the year that everyone is still talking about and is gaining momentum. I think another thing that helps Oscar winners is the presence of "the great scene," a sequence that stands out that everyone talks about. "Crash" had the sequence with the little girl and the gun and "Little Miss Sunshine" has a couple: the motel scene with Grandpa and Olive, as well as the final dancing scene with the whole family which everyone loves.

Scorsese will probably still win the DGA, and I can see him finally getting the Oscar this time. Unlike "Gangs of New York," "The Departed" doesn't seem to have a loud group of detractors jeering it from the sidelines. And you would hope they wouldn't feel they had to give Clint Eastwood ANOTHER Oscar so soon. I don't think it matters that "Sunshine" did not receive a Best Director nomination, the Oscars have been getting farther and farther away from lining up the winners for Picture and Director than they used to. As for the editing, I don't even understand that. I can't imagine why that matters at all.

I've been "handicapping" the Oscars for a few decades and have a rather good record at it, but I am completely lost as to what film will win best picture. Any of the five films that have one at least one award by the time the Best Picture is given out, will be a contender. I also don't know if I really care as much as I used to. Last year's stunning and monumental upset of the best picture of the year (Brokeback Mountain) by the inferior (though not bad) Crash may have disillusioned me forever about the importance of these awards. Brokeback will hold historical interest in years to come; Crash is just another movie. Sure, the Oscars have financial importance, but for the first time in my life I have to sorta side with the naysayers and wonder what significance these things have in terms of quality. There have been less deserving winning pictures and performances than Crash, but to go against what was nearly universally considered to be the best picture of the year last year was such a slap in the face of what was "right", I do not know if I will ever think of these awards in the same way again. I know the theories of why Crash won (the actors branch, Brokeback peaked too soon, etc.), but I just cannot help shake the idea that the Oscars are so tired of recently being predictable due to all of the endless awards given out before them, that they just go against the grain simply to be different. Simply to stand out in the crowd. Simply to be unpredictable, otherwise they have the chance of slowly becoming an after the fact event. If this should be true, the sad part of that is, like last year, they don't choose the best picture simply to have their voice heard. Of course, none of what I have just written pertains to this year's nominees for picture, but it does apply to the most predictable four acting categories I can ever remember, so I suspect that there will be one or two upsets such as perhaps O'Toole for actor and/or Haley for supporting actor. Getting back to best picture I can find reasons for all of them to lose and no real reason for any of them to win, but obviously one has to. Take your pick because as I said at the beginning of this, I am lost. Okay, okay....if you were to put a gun to my head to name one of them I'd say The Departed, but would have little faith that I might be correct. But I don't really care all that much for the reasons I mentioned earlier and also because I don't much care about these five films and I care the very least about Little Miss Sunshine, which is so highly overrated and full of annoying characters. That probably means one should run to the windows to bet on it. And finally, of all the nominees, the one I want to win the most and will truly hold my breath when the category comes up is a sure loser and that is Paul Greengrass for best director for the utterly brilliant piece of filmmaking called United 93, which may hold a place in history as the best film that most people not only didn't want to see, but also refused to see. Just think! If it were nominated for best picture, as it should've been, I would have had the opportunity to be disappointed again this year, though not even remotely as surprised, so in some perverted way, I guess I should be happy the film I thought was the best of 2006 was not even nominated. No United 93, no Children of Men, no Little Children, no Dreamgirls, no Pan's Labyrinth. Again, I don't have a clue who will win the Oscar for best picture this year, but I do know that it will not be the best picture released last year.

I'm actually excited about one race this year! It should be a dogfight to the end. I am thinking that Little Miss Sunshine when all is said and done will prevail. Unbelievably so...

I don't think anybody should count out Letters. As they have showed us through the years, AMPAS is a whole organic different association that anything else in the industry, and they vote with their HEART. The one that should be left out I think is The Queen. It's got nothing for it besides the raves. I don't think The Departed has that much of a chance, given how violent it is and that it doesn't have an important message, which leads us to the 3 horse race: Babel vs. LMS vs. Letters.

BABEL has the worldwide thing going on for it, has great performances and eventhough I didn't like it that much, seems like the whole industry really likes it, as shown with its great track record among all the guilds and its 7 nominations in the general field as well as the techs. And there's also the fact that it doesn't look like it will win in any of its other 6 races. BP seems perfect to reward the collective work from everyone involved.
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE is the one truly loved by everyone, with the PGA win as well as the SAG win. As I said, I don't think the voters go and look for database concerning how many times a movie without editing or directing nods has won. They just vote for what they like in each category. LMS has a great message, great box office and the "little film that could" extra push. And it's a comedy, which helps if they are thinking about how much they love dramas and never reward comedy. And if they are not thinking that way, then:
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA is the choice. It's said to be the greatest of the 5, it's got the master Clint who has the achievment of being that old and have directed 2 movies with a very respectable vision all along the way. It's moving, its perfectly done and has the director nominated, as well as the screenplay. I think it stands a great chance, even with a vote split among the five nominees.

I still haven't made my mind yet but my prediction will definately be one of those.

Last year was one of the darkest, most depressing Best Picture lineups in history. In the end, Oscar voted for the one with the most sugar-coated ending (yes, "Crash", despite being "indie", had a very Hollywood ending.)

This year, "The Departed" is "Munich." "Letters from Iwo Jima" is "Munich" via "Good Night and Good Luck." "The Queen" is "Capote." "Babel" is "Crash." But "Little Miss Sunshine" is the only film you walk away from, generally smiling like you just drank Jim Jones' Kool-Aid.

Seriously, watch all 5 films. Your reaction to Little Miss will be: "It wasn't perfect, but goddamn it, I can't help but smile." Plus, its recurring theme of winning is endearing.

My reasoning is questionable, and off the wall, but the message is clear. The Academy voted for the one ray of hope last year, and this year, I predict they will do the same.

PLUS: The days of Picture/Director being a required matchup have disappeared. 2000, 2002, and 2005 all had switches. Voters are much more open to a Picture/Director split. The Departed's victory will be Directing.

I think that it's a contest between babel, little miss sunshine, and marty's departed.

Best director Marty, then it's a toss-up for best picture.

The Queen. I feel Babel is too much like Crash and not a big enough hit. Letters is foreign and not a big enough hit, although M$B wasn't either when it was nominated yet still had 4 times (i think) as much box office as Letters does.

In terms of your pre-award analysis based on the "usual" indicators, AMPAS has painted itself into a corner in some respects--if they choose "Babel," which won the Golden Globe, it proves that what happened to "Brokeback" last year was a statistical anomaly the likes of which the Oscars have never seen, since the Oscar usually picks one of the Best Picture Globe winners, or, at the very least, a nominee.

Similarly, if "LMS" DOESN'T take the top prize, all that hoo-ha in the media last year about the importance of the SAG award as a prognosticator goes out the window.

Thirdly, if any film OTHER than "Babel" or "The Departed" wins, all that bull last year about the Editing nomination being SO important to win is also shown up as a lie, since none of the other three nominated pictures are up for Best Editing.

I think that to have this kind of close race is great, specially considering that the acting categories seem to be done.
Personally I don't think The Queen or LFIW have any chance of winning.
My pick is The Departed. It will obviously take the DGA.
Besides, I don't really think The Departed is 'about nothing' or completely deprived of a message. I think that you can find a lot of meaning and depth in it without stretching it. I, for example, see it as metaphor of the society in which we live in, a society in which absolute truth doesn’t exist and everything is relative, and everyone is simultaneously a victim and a culprit; and what this does to trust and how it makes everyone a suspect… but well, maybe that’s just me.