With a release date of Dec. 26, it may be coming out too late. That end-of-year launch pad used to be fine under the old Oscar calendar, back before the ceremony moved up from March to February and, with it, all of the guild awards. Many guild members are too lazy to attend advance screenings, which are often held too seldom in outlying cities like San Francisco where there are gabillions of voters. (Remember, most DGA members, for example, actually work in the TV biz.) They'll see a movie once they know that they have to, once sufficient buzz builds up for these smaller pix, but that may be too late. That's how "Cold Mountain" famously got snubbed. DGA members missed advance screenings of the Christmas release and, once it was ignored by them, it was doomed. Next it failed to be nommed for best pic at the Oscars, a shame really, because that pic was a gem. Unfortunately, it's remembered quite differently today and I think I know why.

Lastly, film critics won't admit it, but many of them don't catch up with pix till they have to, too, especially the smaller art-house fare. Many members of film-critics' groups that bestow awards work for publications like Us Weekly, which only bother to cover Adam Sandler and Julia Roberts pix, usually in 45-word snippets. Those critics don't admit that they skip seeing the smaller pix, but they do. They'll catch up with them later once buzz builds, but they're not fully aware in early December when award voting occurs.