Split Emmy predix: Kyra or Minnie to win best drama actress?
Sure, it's nice to learn the Emmy predictions of top TV critics, but, personally speaking, I know who the real best experts are: our forum moderators Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria. They've not only tracked these kudos like brainy bloodhounds through the years, but they've actually viewed the same episodes submitted to judges by nominees as examples of their best work.
Boomer and Rob agree on a lot of races this year, but not lead actress in a drama series. Here — hooray! grab some popcorn and a ringside seat, kiddos — we have a pundit smackdown! Boomer's gal is Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer"), Rob's is Minnie Driver ("The Riches"). Yes, in his text below, he initially put Minnie and Kyra in a tie, but he adds now, way, "If I have to stick my neck out, then I'm going out on a huge limb and pick Minnie."
LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES: BOOMER'S PREDIX
PATRICIA ARQUETTE, "Medium" ("Be Kind, Rewind" -- 38:45 minutes / 18 scenes)
Arquette really feels comfortable in this role and provides a nice performance in an episode geared around a "Groundhog Day" dream-like situation. She wakes up over and over, each time with a new chance to salvage a murderous outcome at a restaurant (and even severe injury to herself). It is a solid job, but the only memorable moment for me was the third version of the kitchen scene when she loses control.
PERFORMANCE GRADE: 75/100
OTHER INTANGIBLES: 75/100
AVERAGE GRADE: 75/100
MINNIE DRIVER, "The Riches" ("Pilot" - 33:45 minutes / 18 scenes)
Driver nails the Southern accent (believe me, I live here where she supposedly was raised) and does a much better job with it than her co-star Eddie Izzard, whose accent was all over the place. Unfortunately, I just thought it was a above-average performance in an episode that fell mostly flat. She certainly has a chance in this category, but I don't really think it will happen.
PERFORMANCE GRADE: 80/100
OTHER INTANGIBLES: 70/100
AVERAGE GRADE: 75/100
EDIE FALCO, "The Sopranos" ("The Second Coming" - 13:45 minutes / 8 scenes)
The Emmy voters may want to give Falco one final award for her incredible character work over the last few years. If they do, it will be for far more than she is given to do in just over 13 minutes on this episode. The writers didn't do her justice at all this final season and should have offered her a great departing showcase somewhere along the way. She does have great scenes with Robert Iler and especially one final kitchen argument with James Gandolfini, but will it be enough?
PERFORMANCE GRADE: 80/100
OTHER INTANGIBLES: 80/100
AVERAGE GRADE: 80/100
SALLY FIELD, "Brothers & Sisters" ("Mistakes Were Made, Part 2" - 17:30 minutes / 11 scenes)
I've never really seen the show, so if I didn't follow the television industry, they could have billed Field as "Special Guest Star" and I wouldn't have known any difference. There are so many long stretches where she isn't even on screen. When she is, Field is effective as a concerned mother about her son going into the military (past and present). Somebody has to finish in last place, so even though she is a double Oscar winner and past Emmy winner, I think it will be her amongst these five other contenders.
PERFORMANCE GRADE: 65/100
OTHER INTANGIBLES: 75/100
AVERAGE GRADE: 70/100
MARISKA HARGITAY, "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit" ("Florida" - 40:45 minutes / 24 scenes)
Well, it is the typical big-scale showcase episode that the "SVU" producers like to throw Hargitay on occasion. I thought that this particular "case" was pretty poorly written and had some large loopholes in it. Hargitay was wonderful as usual and another win would not be a shock to me, but I thought all of her previous Emmy submissions were better.
PERFORMANCE GRADE: 75/100
OTHER INTANGIBLES: 85/100
AVERAGE GRADE: 80/100
KYRA SEDGWICK, "The Closer" ("Slippin'" - 42:30/18 scenes)
This was only my second time to ever see this show, and this episode was involving and mostly unpredictable. Sedgwick got some great interrogation scenes, an opportunity to comfort a patient in the hospital, some nice moments with her mother (guest star Frances Sternhagen) and a few other chances to shine. It is not great, but in a year with no real frontrunner and other nominations/ awards already on her shelf for this role, maybe it is just her time to take the Emmy home.
PERFORMANCE GRADE: 75/100
OTHER INTANGIBLES: 95/100
AVERAGE GRADE: 85/100
PREVIOUS 10 WINNERS IN THIS CATEGORY:
Mariska Hargitay
Patricia Arquette
Allison Janney
Edie Falco
Allison Janney
Edie Falco
Sela Ward
Edie Falco
Christine Lahti
Gillian Anderson
There is no real pattern in a category that has sometimes offered real surprises and other times gone with the logical favorite.
FINAL PREDICTIONS:
1. Kyra Sedgwick
2. Mariska Hargitay
3. Edie Falco
4. Minnie Driver
5. Patricia Arquette
6. Sally Field
Take all six of these ladies, put their names in a hat, and draw one out. You are just as likely to pick the winner here than I am. Any of these six ladies could win based on past success and the general likability of their episodes. Nobody blows you away, but nobody eliminates themselves from contention, either. With such an even field of candidates, I ultimately choose Sedgwick because it just simply feels like it is going to be her turn.
LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES: ROB L.'S PREDIX
Patricia Arquette, "Medium" ("Be Kind, Rewind")
I like Patricia Arquette. Always have. And "Medium" itself is a very entertaining show. But I just didn't buy this at all. I felt like it was a bit forced, very derivative, predictable and Arquette's actual performance merely satisfactory. Patricia had a much better submission last year when she was unceremoniously snubbed. Despite having the "screen time factor" on her side, I think she's sitting this one out.
Tape Score: 60/100
Other Score: 60/100
Average Score: 60/100
Minnie Driver, "The Riches" ("Pilot")
Minnie Driver really delivers in the pilot -- regardless of whether people may perceive Eddie Izzard as overshadowing her to an extent. I really enjoyed her character, her accent and her emotion. A wonderful actress in a wonderful role. She is right up there primed for the win in what I believe is the most competitive category of the night. Going against her is that the voters didn't really demonstrate much love for "The Riches" (or even the FX Network, for that matter).
Tape Score: 80/100
Other Score: 70/100
Average Score: 75/100
Edie Falco, "The Sopranos" ("The Second Coming")
Edie Falco is an Emmy God. We all know it. Carmela Soprano has become an iconic figure for TV moms and the depiction of women on TV in general. So, as a default, you always have to place her high on your list. Coupled with that is her fantastic, layered performance that she delivers in the relatively few scenes that she is in. However, this time, Falco doesn't have the screen time that she needs to propel her to the top of this list, and also hurting her is that her co-star Gandolfini completely and utterly overshadows her in this episode. I wouldn't say she's out of this race (and I don't understand some arguments I have read against her that suggest she does "nothing" in this episode), but I do recognize that it will be on sentiment alone that gets her the trophy if that is what eventuates on Emmy night.
Tape Score: 60/100
Other Score: 80/100
Average Score: 70/100
Sally Field, "Brothers & Sisters" ("Mistakes Were Made, Part 2")
Sally Field surely had better episodes than this to submit -- Calista Flockhart overshadows her (see a pattern here?), and her range goes from distraught to upset. Plus she's not in a hell of a lot of it. But, it IS Sally Field. And we all know how much Academies in general "really like her."
Tape Score: 50/100
Other Score: 70/100
Average Score: 60/100
Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit" ("Florida")
This is Hargitay doing her usual thing -- and doing it well. I tend to have a problem with the sometimes obvious and strained writing on this show (no disrespect) and I think that the material that Mariska is working with does not really hold up as well when viewing it with these other actresses. Still, screen time is high, and she has already proven her popularity with the voters (having been a recent winner).
Tape Score: 60/100
Other Score: 60/100
Average Score: 60/100
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" ("Slippin'")
I really enjoy Kyra Sedgwick in this show -- she shows what you can do with a procedural to really spice things up and make them more intriguing and entertaining. Kyra is a proven favorite, having won a Golden Globe and having been nominated before. I think she may be ready to go to the next level, and I feel like this year might be it. I admit, her episode submission could have been a bit stronger, but, all in all, I think it's time the voters rewarded her.
Tape Score: 70/100
Other Score: 80/100
Average Score: 75/100
Ranking
1 = Minnie Driver (75)
1 = Kyra Sedgwick (75)
3 - Edie Falco (70)
4 = Patricia Arquette (60)
4 = Sally Field (60)
4 = Mariska Hargitay (60)
(Photos: TNT / FX)
"Boomer and Rob agree on a lot of races this year, but not lead actress in a drama series"
Tom, did you even read the whole article? Rob has Kyra in equal first place, so he does agree with Boomer in that respect.
Posted by: parker | August 30, 2007 at 07:34 AM
I am weary of Sally Field "like me" jokes. If the Academy was overly fond, she would have had Oscar nominations for exemplary work in "Forrest Gump," "Steel Magnolias" and "Punchline."
Posted by: Dr. L | August 29, 2007 at 08:46 PM