If you've checked out our first Buzzmeter (CLICK HERE, then click on any link to "Individual Panelists' Rankings"), you'll see that I buck the pundit tide and boldly predict that "Sweeney Todd" will win the Oscar for best picture.
No, I haven't seen the film adaptation of the Stephen Sondheim Broadway classic yet, but I have now heard from enough viewers to feel confident that I'm making a shrewd, if recklessly early call. They're all deliriously passionate about it — in fact, they're as mad for it as Sweeney is for his revenge-wreaking razor — and so far it's the only film on the scene to inspire this kind of joy.
"Sweeney Todd" does that to people, even though they're actually rooting for a deranged chap to slash men's throats. It's a proven recipe for Oscar victory, tattling on Hollywood's sick dark side. Let's recall that the last musical to win best picture — "Chicago" — also asked viewers to cheer on characters to get away with murder.
But "Sweeney" does it much more deftly in an artistic way. Sondheim's musical score is a masterpiece. By comparison, "Chicago's" score is bad Britney Spears. Viewers can't help but get swept up in "Sweeney's" lush melodies and raging drama, as they're seduced into egging on his quest for vengeance against old Judge Turpin (Alan Rickman) who wrongly sent him to prison in order to steal his wife, then, after she reportedly dies upon swallowing poison, plans to wed and bed Sweeney's lovely young daughter.
I was in New York City in 1979 when "Sweeney Todd" first cast its mad spell on audiences. Broadway went berserk. Media and Manhattan's fancy folk couldn't stop talking about it. Beware: America's moviegoers are about to go through the same mania when they inevitably become smitten with its irresistible bloodlust, artistic brilliance and twisted love tales.
Being a fan of the Rialto production, I had misgivings about this screen adaptation at first. I heard that director Tim Burton cut out lots of its musical score and made it very Sweeney-centric. He significantly trimmed Mrs. Lovett's role — the goofy, love-struck baker who fills her meat pies with his victims because it "seems an awful waste," she sings. "I mean, with the price of meat / what it is/ when you get it / if you get it."
But now I hear that Burton didn't cut out, well, the real meat of her role. She still breaks audiences' hearts even while Sweeney continues to ignore her, which means Helena Bonham Carter is a serious contender for best actress at the Oscars. Her stage predecessor, Angela Lansbury, won the equivalent Tony. The show won eight in all, including best musical, director (Hal Prince), actor (Len Cariou). The only category it lost was lighting.
Thus — since Burton & Co. do not, apparently, screw things up —I think "Sweeney" is a good bet to sweep the Oscars next. Yes, there's the serious issue of Johnny Depp's "singing." He doesn't do it well, but I hear that he sells his feelings with such passionate bravado that he compensates adequately, much like tone-deaf Antonio Banderas managed to pull off — miraculously — in "Evita." When Depp gives up even trying to sing, I hear that he attempts a kind of sing-speak, which worked fine for Oscar- and Tony-winner Rex Harrison in best picture champ "My Fair Lady."
There is a spirited debate in the forums about possible honorees for the Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award at the upcoming Oscars - CLICK HERE
While the possibilities range from the sublime - Liv Ullmann for her work at UNICEF - to the ridiculous - Sally Kirkland and her advocacy against breast implants - there is no guarantee that the Academy will bestow the honor this year. Since establishing the award back in 1956 in memory of actor Jean Hersholt, founder of the Motion Picture Relief Fund, the Board of Governors has only voted to bestow it 32 times. While they were able to find an "individual in the motion picture industry whose humanitarian efforts have brought credit to the industry" 24 times in the first three decades of the award, only 8 have been given out in the last twenty years.
From 1992 to 1994, four famous faces were honored for their work on behalf of the little people - Elizabeth Taylor, Audrey Hepburn, Paul Newman, and Quincy Jones. Then the pool ran dry and it took till 2001 before another good soul, director Arthur Hiller, could be found. Last year, exec Sherry Lansing received the honor for, in the words of Academy president Sid Ganis, “not only her passionate work in support of fighting cancer but because the Board recognized and remembered the long list of charitable organizations and causes she has served, and her long history in serving them."
As per Rule 24, to make it to the podium to accept this honorary Oscar statuette, the do-gooder has to first get past other possible winners under discussion at an meeting of the Board and then get a 'yes' vote from two-thirds of the governors present. Can anyone in cold hard Hollywood warm the hearts of these industry vets this year? Stay tuned.
Our first Buzzmeter of the Oscar season shows the state of flux in the top six races — CLICK HERE. "Atonement" leads the pack for best picture (I have it second behind "Sweeney Todd") but there is strong support among our supersized panel of 30-plus pundits for "No Country for Old Men" as well. That dark comedy's directors, the Coen brothers, are the favorite of eight of my colleagues.
As for the acting categories, best actor is up for grabs but a consensus is building that Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose") and Julie Christie ("Away From Her") are frontrunners for best actress. The story is the same for supporting, with my choice, Javier Bardem ("No Country for Old Men"), just one of many actors in contention, while Cate Blanchett is the clear favorite for her gender-bending turn as Bob Dylan in "I'm Not There."
Let us know what you think of our rankings by joining in the discussion in the forums - CLICK HERE or click the "Comments" link below.
The Golden Globes just announced a new rule change that would've permitted "Letters from Iwo Jima" to compete in the top best picture race, as it did at the Oscars, instead of being relegated to best foreign-language film. This year "The Kite Runner" and "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" would've been able to make the cut, but, alas, they must stay put in the foreign slot because the rule change doesn't kick in till next.
Sasha Stone at AwardsDaily.com seems to be worried about the same thing I am: how the directors' race can skew the whole derby this year. (CLICK HERE)
In her roundup overview she notes what I've been warning for eons: that the DGA awards may be screwy — more out of whack than usual with Oscar's best picture lineup.
Take, for example, Sidney Lumet. "He has come roaring back with a film that is every bit as good as his best films, if not better," Sasha notes, "It isn’t perfect, of course, and may not even be nominated for Best Pic, but Lumet will very likely be among the five DGA nominees."
I agree. In fact, I think Lumet will be irresistible to the 13,000 guild voters, who usually go for the big marquee names. Lumet has a good chance to be nommed by the 370 members of the academy's directors' branch, too, but he might be snubbed there because he's a New Yorker who helmed an indie produced by Manhattan's THINKfilm. (Guild members aren't all concentrated in Hollywood, so they're less likely to hold geography against Lumet.)
Back before 2004, when there was more time in between the unveiling of DGA and Oscar nom lists, the guild choices strongly influenced academy voters, but there will be little of that now. Oscar ballots must be returned four days after DGA noms are announced on Jan. 8.
Even if Lumet makes both directors' lists, I don't think "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" will be nominated for best picture at the Oscars. It's a superb thriller, but just not the kind of film that voters are likely to rank first or second on their ballots.
Another movie could be snubbed in the top Oscar race that gets nommed by DGA and the academy for best director, too: Sean Penn's "Into the Wild." But will it be nommed for best picture, too? The film itself may not have as much support as Penn does, but it does have many boosters.
There's an oft-repeated misconception that actors don't get nominated as directors as often at DGA as they do at the Oscars. But that's rubbish. In fact, the guild fawns over celebs all the time. Take a look at the thesps nommed by DGA since 1990. This list even includes a few stars snubbed by Oscar voters: Rob Reiner and Barbra Streisand.
* = winner
* Kevin Costner, "Dances with Wolves," 1990 Barbra Streisand, "The Prince of Tides," 1991 * Clint Eastwood, "Unforgiven," 1992 Rob Reiner, "A Few Good Men," 1992 Robert Redford, "Quiz Show," 1994 * Ron Howard, "Apollo 13," 1995 Mel Gibson, "Braveheart," 1995 Roberto Benigni, "Life Is Beautiful," 1998 * Ron Howard, "A Beautiful Mind," 2001 * Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby," 2004 George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck," 2005
Conversely, there are some films that might be nominated for best picture without a corresponding directors' bid at either the Oscars or guild.
Widely suspected, but now confirmed: the alphabet network has decided to enter "Pushing Daisies" as a comedy series at the upcoming Screen Actors Guild Awards. Category declarations must be made now for the guild prize. Obviously, the decree will probably apply to the Golden Globes and Emmys, too. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association has a tough eligibility committee that may disagree, but that's not likely. "Daisies" pushes just enough comic buttons to qualify, methinks, even though it also has dark dramatic turns and it's an hour -long weekly show. That time length is a curious new trend. It used to be a fluke when we spotted one-hour comedy contenders like "Ally McBeal." Now we're seeing lots — including "Ugly Betty" and "Desperate Housewives."
Comingsoon.net premieres the "Charlie Wilson's War" poster. CLICK HERE Notice its emphasis on smart ironic humor over snooty Oscar pretentiousness. Good ploy.
This news just beamed in from the Andromeda Galaxy . . . .
We've always known that members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association are quirky, free-thinking characters. Now I hear that they're giving serious kudos consideration to a film with little Oscar buzz and one that doesn't quite fit their traditional tastes: "Across the Universe." Several spies tell me that lots of voters love it! Can't you just picture those golden agers Golden Globers swaying, grooving and snapping their fingers in screening rooms to "Hey, Jude" while watching a bowling alley ballet? Since the Golden Globes have those separate categories for musicals/ comedies, voters might actually put it in that best-picture lineup along with "Sweeney Todd" and "Hairspray."
Actually, HFPA members haven't seen "Sweeney" yet, nor another film that could do well in that race, "Enchanted." There are quite a few films they have yet to view, in fact, including "There Will Be Blood," "The Savages," "The Great Debaters," "Charlie Wilson's War," "The Bucket List" and "Golden Compass" — many of those qualifying in the drama lineup, of course.
"This year the age old “empty!” gripe is aimed at the Supporting Actress category," growls Nathaniel R at thefilmexperience.net. That's what most Oscar gurus are saying nowadays, but nay, nay, I say!
Still, it's fun to read Nathaniel's rant, particularly his breakdown of the five character types that usually triumph: Long-Suffering Wife (think Jennifer Connelly in "A Beautiful Mind" and Beatrice Straight in "Network"), Monstrous/ Martyr Mom (Brenda Fricker in "My Left Foot," Eileen Heckart in "Butterflies are Free"), The Mouth on Her (Dianne Wiest in "Bullets Over Broadway," Maggie Smith in "California Suite"), Little Miss Sunshine (Tatum O'Neal in "Paper Moon," Anna Paquin in "The Piano"), and More Than Just a Pretty Face (Kim Basinger in "L.A. Confidential," Angelina Jolie in "Girl, Interrupted").
I count more than a dozen candidates with a real shot for a nom (see below), many of them fitting the types cited above. By the way, on the pressing question of which "Atonement" gals get in, I don't buy the buzz that it's the middle one (Garai). I think we could see the young one (Ronan) and even the old one (Redgrave) even though the latter part is only a few minutes. They are the key transcending moments of the whole film.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS CONTENDERS Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There" Jennifer Connelly, "Reservation Road" Ruby Dee, "American Gangster" Olympia Dukakis, "Away from Her" Romola Garai, "Atonement" Jennifer Garner, "Juno" Catherine Keener, "Into the Wild" Nicole Kidman, "The Golden Compass" Jennifer Jason Leigh, "Margot at the Wedding" Leslie Mann, "Knocked Up" Kelly McDonald, "No Country for Old Men" Vanessa Redgrave, "Atonement" Julia Roberts, "Charlie Wilson's War" Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement" Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone" Emmanuelle Seigner, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" Meryl Streep, "Lions for Lambs" Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"
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