Sasha Stone at AwardsDaily.com seems to be worried about the same thing I am: how the directors' race can skew the whole derby this year. (CLICK HERE)

In her roundup overview she notes what I've been warning for eons: that the DGA awards may be screwy — more out of whack than usual with Oscar's best picture lineup.

Take, for example, Sidney Lumet. "He has come roaring back with a film that is every bit as good as his best films, if not better," Sasha notes, "It isn’t perfect, of course, and may not even be nominated for Best Pic, but Lumet will very likely be among the five DGA nominees."

I agree. In fact, I think Lumet will be irresistible to the 13,000 guild voters, who usually go for the big marquee names. Lumet has a good chance to be nommed by the 370 members of the academy's directors' branch, too, but he might be snubbed there because he's a New Yorker who helmed an indie produced by Manhattan's THINKfilm. (Guild members aren't all concentrated in Hollywood, so they're less likely to hold geography against Lumet.)

Back before 2004, when there was more time in between the unveiling of DGA and Oscar nom lists, the guild choices strongly influenced academy voters, but there will be little of that now. Oscar ballots must be returned four days after DGA noms are announced on Jan. 8.

Even if Lumet makes both directors' lists, I don't think "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" will be nominated for best picture at the Oscars. It's a superb thriller, but just not the kind of film that voters are likely to rank first or second on their ballots.

Another movie could be snubbed in the top Oscar race that gets nommed by DGA and the academy for best director, too: Sean Penn's "Into the Wild." But will it be nommed for best picture, too? The film itself may not have as much support as Penn does, but it does have many boosters.

There's an oft-repeated misconception that actors don't get nominated as directors as often at DGA as they do at the Oscars. But that's rubbish. In fact, the guild fawns over celebs all the time. Take a look at the thesps nommed by DGA since 1990. This list even includes a few stars snubbed by Oscar voters: Rob Reiner and Barbra Streisand.

* = winner

* Kevin Costner, "Dances with Wolves," 1990
Barbra Streisand, "The Prince of Tides," 1991
* Clint Eastwood, "Unforgiven," 1992
Rob Reiner, "A Few Good Men," 1992
Robert Redford, "Quiz Show," 1994
* Ron Howard, "Apollo 13," 1995
Mel Gibson, "Braveheart," 1995
Roberto Benigni, "Life Is Beautiful," 1998
* Ron Howard, "A Beautiful Mind," 2001
* Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby," 2004
George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck," 2005

Conversely, there are some films that might be nominated for best picture without a corresponding directors' bid at either the Oscars or guild.