OSCARS PODCAST: Pete Hammond and I reveal how to predict nominees
It's all about passion. That's what you'll hear Pete Hammond and me say — quite passionately, by the way — while dishing the peculiar voting system used by the Oscars to determine the final list of contenders. Whereas many guilds and other award groups use a weighted ballot that measures the partial support a voter gives to a film he or she ranks third, fourth or fifth in a category, the Oscars use a unique preferential ballot that largely disregards anything ranked below second place. It's an overly simplified statement, but you'll often hear Oscarologists like Pete and me harrumph, "Remember! Only number-one votes count!"
That's how longshots like "Little Miss Sunshine," "The Full Monty" and "Chocolat" got nommed for best picture — those are films that some voters felt deliriously about. And it doesn't take a large number of votes to get nominated, by the way. Just passionate votes, ones ranked first or second by one-sixth of academy members plus one. That's the actual formula used by accountants. It doesn't matter if nearly all 5,800 voters put "There Will Be Blood" on their best-picture ballot this year. If most of them rank it low, "Into the Wild" could bump it out with only 1,000 high-placed votes.
So how does that apply further to the current derby? Pete and I warn you to pay special attention to small dark horses like "Diving Bell and the Butterfly," "Juno" and "The Kite Runner" — plus biggies that strike a strong emotional chord like "Atonement" and "Sweeney Todd."
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But how do we know what movies sparkle passion in them?
Posted by: Gustavo H.R. | October 28, 2007 at 08:27 AM
I'm really enjoying these podcast Tom. Keep up the good work!
Posted by: Daniel | October 26, 2007 at 08:56 AM