A "bloodbath" at the box office this past weekend may have slain the Oscars hopes of some top contenders like "Things We Lost in the Fire" star Halle Berry, says Lou Lumenick of the New York Post. Since costar Benicio del Toro gave the more dynamic performance, he may still emerge from the ashes, but, "I'm not extremely optimistic," Lou says in our podcast chat. "Any time a studio sends out a DVD screener on opening day to awards voters, you get the impression they don't have a whole lot of confidence in it."

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"Gone, Baby, Gone" was also hurt at the b.o. this past weekend, Lou says: "They may have opened it a little too wide. It doesn't have much star power compared to other stuff out there."

Of the ponies still in the derby, he thinks "Atonement" is out front.

"It hits all of the right notes for the academy," he says. "It's similar to 'The English Patient,' although I think it's a better film. It even has a cameo by Anthony Minghella at the end. It's got strong performances, strong crafts across the board. It has literary cache. I could see that going all the way, although it's always dangerous to be the frontrunner in an Oscar race, as you know. Look at 'Brokeback Mountain,' which is the same studio. What it also has in common is a star — Keira Knightley — who tends to shoot her mouth off in interviews and I think we saw what happened with 'Brokeback Mountain' (when its) two male stars, particularly Heath Ledger, said a lot of very stupid things on the interview trail."