It's that time of year when those borderline new TV dramedies must declare themselves for the drama or comedy races at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, which suggests how they'll also compete at the Golden Globes and Emmys.

One cliffhanger is "Californication," which I suspect Showtime would define as a comedy since that's how it defines the similarly quirky "Weeds," but that's just a guess.

When I asked Richard Licata, VP of communications, he said, "We did enter 'Californication' into SAG as a comedy series because it’s funny. David Duchovny has miraculously done a 180 degrees turn from his most famous dramatic TV role — Fox Maulder in 'The X Files' — and created a, complex, new character with a wicked sense of humor. And although Hank Moody’s a flawed man dealing with difficult issues he responds to the people in his world — ex-girlfriend, daughter, best friend, lovers — and his feelings of regret, outrage and longing, with great humor. As San Francisco Chronicle TV critic Tim Goodman wrote today in his column: '"Californication" is both bitterly and flippantly funny, a wonderful combination.'"

Universal Pictures is pushing Steven Zaillian's screenplay for "American Gangster" in the Oscar race for original screenplays instead of adapted, reports Kris Tapley at Variety.com.

"Conventional wisdom had it that the script was based on Mark Jacobson's New York Magazine article 'The Return of Superfly,' which recounted the life and times of Frank Lucas (portrayed by Denzel Washington in the film)," he adds. "The fact is there is actually no major mention of Detective Richie Roberts (Russell Crowe's cleaner-than-thou cop) in the article and that the screenplay was 'not based on the article at all,' according to somone close to the campaign."

CLICK HERE to find out who it was!

Well, at least Sony Pictures Classics has a healthy sense of humor about their Israeli pic getting shut out of the foreign-language film race because there's too much English spoken in it. Check out the "except" part of this "For Your Consideration" ad.

I'm not surprised at all that "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" snagged an amazing $36,750 per screen in two locations this weekend. I checked out one of them on Friday night at 5 p.m. in Manhattan. The Lincoln Plaza Cinema was jam-packed. In that trendy neighborhood, right across Broadway from Lincoln Center, you'd expect that kind of stampede to a Sidney Lumet movie starring Philip Seymour Hoffman, Ethan Hawke and Albert Finney (OK, OK, and Marisa Tomei, too) that garnered great early reviews and was in such strictly limited release.

But what does that tell us about how it'll do at the Oscars, huh?

Sure, it's cheered by film critics, but so was "Children of Men" last year and look how that did in the derby!

The kudos cliffhanger looming over Lumet's pic, as I see it: does "Devil" = "The Departed" (violent thriller forgiven for being bloody because of its A List cast and overdue, legendary director) or "Mulholland Drive" (beloved because its director is beloved — David Lynch got nommed for best director at the Oscars, but his movie didn't make the lineup for best picture)?

Graphic thrillers like "Devil" don't usually do well in the derby. Sure, "The Departed" won last year, but that was a fluke and it had a sly sense of absurdity. Through all the bang-bang-bang and broken bones and preposterous plot twists, viewers got the sense that Scorsese was winking at them from behind his camera and academy members winked right back.

"Devil" doesn't do that. It's serious, it's taut and it's gritty, not stylized like "Departed" and it's screenplay isn't distinguished enough to get nominated like "Departed" did, I'm guessing. That's a major drawback. As much as some of my fellow Oscar gurus love "Devil," a few of them don't think it looks like a derby horse to them. But that's what so many pundits said early last year about "Departed." Why do we suddenly believe them this year?

That's why I went to the Lincoln Plaza Cinema last Friday and sat in the front row, so I could be the last one out of the theater and eavesdrop on what the audience said as they exited.

Obviously, they were impressed, but shaken by the pic. I asked a few people if they thought it could win Oscars and they all said the same thing: sure, Lumet, Hoffman and Hawke. But what about best picture? They hesitated, not knowing what to say.

Assuming this film does well at the b.o. in coming weeks, it's clearly going to be a serious kudos contender. And it's going to do well in theaters because it's an art-house flick that's also an event film and a date movie — all of those things.

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Lots of new Oscar blogs are popping up all over the web these days (with no weed killer on the market strong enough to solve the problem), but one deserves special note: "Red Carpet District" by Kristopher Tapley at Variety.com. (CLICK HERE)

Unlike the academy's statuette, it's solid gold. Kris knows his stuff and his recent appointment in this job proves that there are real happy endings in Hollywood. Because Kris deserves this gig. He isn't one more ego-bloated film critic who thinks he knows the Oscars because he writes about Martin Scorsese and Ang Lee. (To my mind, giving us one more of those would be like hiring your TV repairman to write an episode of "The Sopranos" because, well, he works in TV, right?)

Kris studies the Oscars as a science and has been writing about them since he was a college student in the Carolinas. I asked Sasha Stone of AwardsDaily.com, the old Oscarwatch.com, to tell us his story, since it was at her site where he emerged with some prominence, first as a poster, then as a writer, then he launched his own site, then wrote for MovieCityNews.com, then launched another site of his own — InContention.com, still going strong — then landed this prized gig at Variety.

"Kris and I met years ago when he was a teenager and a frequent visitor of Oscarwatch," Sasha says. "He then launched OscarCentral, his own prediction site which really took off when he got an interview with 'Gosford Park' writer Julian Fellowes and they became 'friends.' From there, he did well but at some point wanted to be part of my site and dump his own. So he wrote for me for a while doing interviews and predictions."

After graduating from college, he moved to Los Angeles where he picked up freelance gigs, writing for Variety's award supplements and even occasional film pieces for the New York Times.

"One thing about him is he's always been really smart for his age," Sasha adds. "He is bright and funny and comes off online as a lot more cocky than he actually is. I think he's got a bright future."

Uh-oh. Do you think Sasha wanted me to quote that last "cocky" part of her email?

Congratulations, Kris! And congrats, too, to Variety, for hiring a real winner among award pundits.

More awards keep piling up for "Juno." Over the past few days it won the top prize at the Rome film festival plus the audience award at the Austin, Texas, film fest. Last week, it reaped screenwriter's and actress' kudos at the Hollywood Film Festival.

Looks like "Juno" may be that little gem that gets nominated for best picture at the Oscars. It fits all of the usual criteria. It'll probably nab top bids for acting (Ellen Page) and screenplay(Diablo Cody). It's hip, hilarious and it — stop presses — makes even crusty Hollywooders cry. Who knew they even had a heart?

Ah, the Oscars the might have been! To learn the answer, CLICK HERE!

Hey, New York Magazine, check your sources! The Gotham mag is spreading further the false rumor that Helena Bonham Carter will go supporting for "Sweeney Todd" (see here). Dreamworks insists she'll go lead, which is the corresponding category that Angela Lansbury won when the show swept the Tony Awards in 1979. Of course, that doesn't always mean anything, as we learned last year when Jennifer Hudson won best supporting actress in "Dreamgirls." Her stage predecessor, Jennifer Holliday, won the lead Tony in 1982. Hudson was really the lead in the film version, of course, but she didn't want to try and usurp "The Queen" star Helen Mirren.

Those New York "Vulture" guys aren't proving very reliable as Oscar reporters in general. Recently they spread the false rumor that Universal has spent "millions" to do last-minute reshoots to save a faltering "Charlie Wilson's War." Studio reps and other sources close to the film insist that no reshoots were done at all.

Come to think of it, considering Oscar history, Helena Bonham Carter might be better off pulling that sneaky ole trick successfully employed by other crafy divas: drop to supporting where lead roles — just because of sheer size — have a better chance to win. Carter is old academy news. She was nominated for best actress in 1997 for "Wings of the Dove," losing to Helen Hunt ("As Good As It Gets"), who is one of many dames who claimed that category upon her first nomination.

Oscar voters, remember, love ingénues. These are just some of the gals who won best actress their first time up: Charlize Theron, Reese Witherspoon, Halle Berry, Gwyneth Paltrow, Hilary Swank, Marlee Matlin, Sally Field, Louise Fletcher, Glenda Jackson, Julie Christie, Sophia Loren, Joanne Woodward, Anna Magnani, Shirley Booth, Judy Holliday, Bette Davis (after a failed write-in campaign for "Of Human Bondage" — that doesn't count as a nomination), Luise Rainer and Katharine Hepburn.