Sasha puts a gun to her head and predicts Oscars
Yikes. Sasha Stone is sure a gutsy Oscarologist. Over at AwardsDaily.com, she bravely takes a shot at forecasting the top race: "Gun to my head Best Picture predictions at this moment in time: 'Atonement,' 'Into the Wild,' 'There Will Be Blood,' 'Charlie Wilson’s War.' Fifth slot: 'The Kite Runner,' '3:10 to Yuma,' 'No Country for Old Men.'" READ MORE
Excuse me, Sasha: may I borrow your pistol? Tx, amigo. Now, pointing it at my feeble gray matter, I let loose with my own five predix for best picture: "Atonement," "Charlie Wilson's War," "Into the Wild," "Juno," "The Kite Runner," "Sweeney Todd" and "There Will Be Blood." Ooops, that's seven. Sorry!
Sasha, I see — in the comments section of your blog piece — that you're getting grief about your faith in "Charlie Wilson's War." Hold tight, comrade. I suspect you're right about that! Also about "Atonement." Maybe Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" too. The Studly-Actor-Turns-Director Phenom is huge, as we know (Mel Gibson's "Braveheart," Robert Redford's "Ordinary People," Clint Eastwood's "Unforgiven" and "Million Dollar Baby"). But, wait, Sean's doing little press. Yeah, some, sure, but begrudgingly. At the recent L.A. premiere, he trotted past 98.5% of the media along the red carpet, nose pointed high in the air. What in the world was more important in Sean's life than talking to the media about this movie he's spent years working on and now asks us to care about? Why did he invite the media to join him at his premiere if he had no intention of talking to them?
Sean Penn's arrogance may do him in. Remember: Last year Peter O'Toole could've had that best-actor trophy in the bag if only he'd worked the campaign trail. I don't understand at all the hesitation of those notoriously thirsty rascals Sean and Peter to make the rounds. Heck, at every turn in the campaign trail there's an open bar with hospitable tenders, right?
However, pardon me, Sasha — I don't buy the best-pic buzz for "No Country for Old Men." It's got a strong bid for Javier Bardem in supporting, yes, and definitely for screenplay, but the Top 5 Race? I just don't see it. Too violent, too scary and the finale just kinda peters out.
Either "Juno" or "The Kite Runner" will get in, thus taking care of the Heart-Tugger's Slot that "Little Miss Sunshine" held last year and "Babe" and "The Full Monty" owned in previous years.
I'm suddenly leery about "Sweeney Todd." Early on I was hopeful because that Broadway masterpiece swept the Tony Awards in 1979, including best musical. But Johnny Depp must pull off the vocals in order for it to sing at the Oscars. Why didn't Johnny show us his chops in the trailer? Even a hint of crooner abilitity? That's what everyone's waiting to hear. Why, instead, did Johnny talk the brief musical part featured there? Hmmmm. I'm leery about "Sweeney," yes, but, being an optimist, I'm keeping it in key consideration and I — the tireless fan of "Dreamgirls" and "Moulin Rouge!" — sure hope we see a musical in the best-pic race this year! Especially this one. "Sweeney" is a classic for the ages. It deserves a brilliant screen adaptation embraced by Oscar.
(Photo: Paramount Vantage)
Dreamgirls was not a debacle and that's all I'll say in its defense (I love how Tom mentions both Dreamgirls and Moulin Rouge, yet only Dreamgirls gets called out, hmmm?). I have another point. It seems to me this year is like a total guessing game. There are like 20 movies people are talking about. Which SERIOUSLY have what it takes to be nominated for Oscars. Atonement? Sweeney Todd? In the Valley of Elah? Michael Clayton? I haven't seen any so some perspective would be nice.
Posted by: junior | October 09, 2007 at 12:52 PM
The brief musical part that Johnny Depp performed in the Sweeney Todd trailer is part of Epiphany and it is usually performed that way, half-spoken, half-sung. This is not a song to showcase singing ability. As Sondheim himself has said, it should be acted on key.
The only real indication of his ability we have was the response to the "My Friends" clip that was shown in Venice. Everyone who commented on it, including Variety and The Guardian, were very complementary of him.
Posted by: eroz | October 09, 2007 at 08:45 AM
Oh jeez, you really had to squeeze in a mention of the great debacle that is Dreamgirls somewhere in your article right Tom?! Give it a rest.... same goes for your gushing love for Charlie Wilson's War! Just because almost everybody involved in it won Oscars doesn't mean the movie will ! I hope we can fast forward to the day when your heart would again be heartbroken just like when Dreamgirls missed on a BP nomination so that we can hear you again bitching on how the Academy got it wrong about Charlie Wilson's War. Puhleez. Julia + Tom H = condescending feel-good emotional crap! Julia over the Great Ellen Burstyn? Tom over Sir Tony and DDL and then Ol Blue Eyes? yah right!
Posted by: David | October 09, 2007 at 12:37 AM
First of all, don't blame O'Toole for not "campaigning" (Which he did, but was too late at the end...)...He's not very young and it takes a lot of energy to go from England to New York to Los Angeles and back, and that's why he wasn't present at the GG and SAG....
Posted by: Mike B. | October 08, 2007 at 10:30 PM