Do you believe Daniel Day-Lewis is ahead in the best-actor race because he gives the flashiest performance of 2007 as a man who becomes a monster when he strikes it rich in "There Will Be Blood"?

Reality check: Five years ago everybody, remember, said Day-Lewis was a lock to win for portraying ruthless street-gang leader Bill the Butcher in "Gangs of New York." Both are villainous roles. And just like the last time, he could end up being punished for the sins of his character.

Let's now take a look back at that race in 2002, since it may have parallels to heed today.

Adrien Brody ("The Pianist") ended up pulling off a jawdropper, probably because squeamish voters couldn't swallow all that blood Day-Lewis let loose with his meat cleaver. Much better to reward an actor who portrayed a heroic character like Brody's persecuted Jewish maestro, eh? But, come on, was that really the best performance or just one of those persecuted roles that cries out for a hug from Oscars' voters?

It's also possible that Brody caught a ride aboard the late-breaking surge for "The Pianist" in the best picture race. "Chicago" was obviously out front early, but on Oscar night there were ominous signs of a possible upset ahead. The movie that wins best picture usually takes the director and/or writing award. ""The Pianist" claimed both. When the last envelope was opened on Oscar night, the momentum behind "The Pianist" was so obvious that no Oscarologist would have been too surprised to see it declared the top champ.

Personally, I thought Jack Nicholson should've won best actor. Normally, I'm not a fan of his — I think Jack gets way too much credit for being a "genius" for just giving us a mischievous sneer with bugged-out eyes — but I was deeply moved by his subtle, brave turn in "About Schmidt." Jack's a superstar. Superstars are vain. They don't usually have the guts to take on a role that highlights how decrepit they're getting at that age.

Putting aside all sentimental concerns, the best perf of the year was probably given by Nicolas Cage who actually gave two performances in "Adaptation." He portrayed twins — one shy, one yahoo. Performing multiple personalities is often a lucky charm at all award shows.

Also nominated at the Oscars that year was Michael Caine, who was socko as a disillusioned British journalist in Vietnam in 1952 in "The Quiet American." He really had no shot of winning because he'd already received two Oscars in the supporting category. You don't get three or more Oscars unless you're Jack Nicholson or Katharine Hepburn. (Forget that whole Walter Brennan thing ever happening again. He couldn't pull off that triple-header today since thousands of extras don't vote anymore. Slavishly, they used to support their ole buddy Brennan because they considered him to be one of them — another working-stiff, low-rung actor.)

In 2002, here's who won the other leading best-actor awards: L.A. Film Critics Association (Day-Lewis and Nicholson tied), New York Film Critics Circle (Day-Lewis), National Society of Film Critics (Brody), Golden Globe (Nicholson), SAG (Day-Lewis) and Critics Choice (Day-Lewis and Nicholson tied again).

In retrospect, who do you think actually gave the best performance?