Mythbuster: SAG ensemble win does not forecast Oscar's best pic
This morning the SAG category for best film ensemble acting turned out to be a shockeroo. There's a widespread belief that the category is a 
great predictor of what will win best picture at the Oscars. However, only one of the films widely presumed to be a current frontrunner made the race — "No Country for Old Men." Missing were "Atonement," "Sweeney Todd," "There Will Be Blood," "Michael Clayton" and "Juno." Instead, the other four contenders turned out to be "3:10 to Yuma," "American Gangster," "Hairspray" and "Into the Wild" — all best-picture possibilities, yes, but not the odds-on-fave.
What gives? One possibility is that Oscarologists are wrong about this year. Another is that the ensemble prize really isn't an Oscar best-pic crystal ball. I tend to believe the latter. After all, only 5 of the past 12 SAG ensemble winners claimed the top Oscar. The fact that "Crash" was one of them has fueled the crystal-ball myth since that victory turned out to be a hint that a movie virtually shut out at the Golden Globes was on its way to Oscar glory. Last year's SAG winner, "Little Miss Sunshine," got bumped off by "The Departed." Three years ago "Sideways" beat Oscar champ "Million Dollar Baby" and Globes victor "The Aviator."
"Into the Wild" probably got a boost today from the actors because it was directed and co-written by one of their peers: Sean Penn. The snub of "Juno" may be explained away by the secret snobbism of SAG members who claim to respect television as an art form as much as film, but they really, look down on boob-tube players. The cast of "Juno" is comprised chiefly of TV actors: Jennifer Garner ("Alias"), Allison Janney ("The West Wing"), J.K. Simmons ("The Closer"), Rainn Wilson ("The Office") and Jason Bateman and Michael Cera ("Arrested Development").
J K Simmons has done many more movies than TV. I would hardly call him a "tv actor".
Posted by: Tom | December 28, 2007 at 03:36 PM
You're right, Tom, but for the reason Violet & Dominique gave: The SAG is for Best ENSEMBLE (cast), not Best Picture (producer); they're for two different things. Many amateur Oscar watchers miss this, but the pros don't. This is why the SAGs are a great predictor of the acting Oscars (3 out of 4 last year is pretty much normal), but not Best Picture or Director.
Posted by: RBBrittain | December 23, 2007 at 04:42 PM
I agree with Pablo, Violet, and Dominique. Look at last year's "Little Miss Sunshine" winning the SAG Ensemble Award while "The Departed" won the Best Picture Oscar, another example of the distinct difference in and focus of the two top awards.
Posted by: Michael Lewis | December 22, 2007 at 03:56 AM
"Braveheart" was not nominated in any category at the SAG, and it did not only win 5 Academy Awards, but also it was rewarded in the Best Picture and Best Director races. "Atonement" and "Sweeney Todd" do still have a lot of possiblities. "No Country for Old Men" could be this year "Apollo 13", and "Into the Wild" may play a similar role to that of "Sense and Sensiblity."
Posted by: Pablo Serrano Herrero | December 21, 2007 at 11:51 PM
Thank you! I've been saying this for years; the SAG ensemble award is NOT a Best Picture equivalent. The award genuinely favors ensembles. I wasn't at all surprised that Crash won over Brokeback because Crash had so many actors given about-equal screen time, while Brokeback had an overwhelming focus on the two leads. It's not that the other performances in BBM weren't good, but it wasn't a showcase for an ensemble, which is neither a good nor bad thing. Same with Gosford Park beating Beautiful Mind for ensemble cast; Gosford Park had something like 15 principle characters, but BM was focused on Crowe and Connelly. (Did anyone think GP would beat BM for Best Picture after that victory? Of course not.) Also worth noting that Best Pic winner The English Patient lost ensemble to The Birdcage, which wasn't even nominated for Best Picture.
Posted by: Violet | December 21, 2007 at 06:23 AM
SAG hands out an award for "Best Performance" by an Ensemble Cast and NOT a Best Picture award per say. I agree with you, the dubious Crash win over Brokeback Mountain two years ago should not be taken too seriously and should not be seen as a precedent that is to be emulated. God forbid, no! Let's hope that such a ridiculous blunder will not be repeated.
I thought that "Into the Wild" was excellent! Surely one of my very favorite films of the year. Sean Penn, BRAVO!
Posted by: Dominique | December 20, 2007 at 08:12 PM
Tom, did the screeners of "Sweeney Todd" and "Atonement" not arrive in time? Did they not send them out?Were they late?
Also, the Academy is notoriously Anglo-philic and SAG just by these results ousted the two big Brit Flicks. Watch for the Academy to change that up.
And a lot of people consider "Juno" a Canadian film, which is where it was shot and Ellen Page is Canadian
Posted by: Stephen Holt | December 20, 2007 at 06:13 PM
Thanks for the insightful comments.
I loved that Ryan Gosling and Viggo Mortensen were recognized for their difficult assignments. But I was a bit surprised that James McEvoy was ignored.
One thing really bothers me. I saw pics of the real Marianne Pearl. Angelino Jolie looks nothing like her.
Posted by: AlM | December 20, 2007 at 06:01 PM
Tx, Jack. Of course you're right. Fixed.
Posted by: Tom O'Neil | December 20, 2007 at 04:48 PM
"Cera," not "Sera"
Posted by: Jack Sparrow | December 20, 2007 at 02:53 PM