'No Country' is a surprising pick for the National Board of Review

Wow, I'm gobsmacked by the National Board of Review picking "No Country for Old Men" as best picture! Most award gurus believe that that's the movie we'll see cited on Sunday when the Los Angeles Film Critics Association votes and/or on Monday when the New York Film Critics Circle trumpets its choices. (CLICK HERE to read the L.A. Times report on NBR results and HERE to see the full list of winners.)

Normally, the board shuns the critics' picks. The last time they all agreed was in 1997 for "L.A. Confidential." But they do have a good track record picking films that get nominated for best picture at the Oscars. Over the past 10 years, they named eight: : "Letters from Iwo Jima," "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Finding Neverland," "Mystic River," "The Hours," "Moulin Rouge!" "Quills," "American Beauty," "Gods and Monsters" and "L.A. Confidential." "America Beauty" won the top Oscar, of course. "Quills" and "Gods and Monsters" weren't nominated in the top race. "Quills" was snubbed altogether and "Gods and Monsters" ended up with the screenplay Oscar.

NBR's awards are influenced in part by the hundreds of members who must attend X number of screenings per month or else they can't vote. But their input just figures into a small percentage of the final decisions, which are really left to members of the Exceptional Photoplay Committee. Years ago I knew quite a few of them. Most struck me as nice and earnest chaps, but clumsy, even misfit wannabe Oscar Wildes most likely to go for highbrow stuff like "The Hours" over the macho fare preferred by film critics.

But there's been a big shakeup on the committee in recent years. A new politburo has taken charge and I haven't met them. Now it seems like they're aiming for more credibility by aping the taste of film critics, which they aren't, of course. The group is comprised of lawyers, teachers, PR reps and one journalist who I know vaguely.