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Our gutsy prognosticator 'Boomer' predicts the SAG noms

December 16, 2007 | 10:09 pm

As readers of Gold Derby and posters in The Envelope's message boards know, our forums moderator Chris "Boomer" Beachum is an astute Sag prognosticator. So I asked him to peer into his crystal ball to size up the nominations to be unveiled this Thursday morning by the Screen Actors Guild. Below — what Boomer sees:

FILM ENSEMBLE
Sure Bets — "Juno," "No Country for Old Men," "Sweeney Todd"
Probables — "American Gangster," "Atonement," "Michael Clayton
Possibles — "Charlie Wilson's War," "Hairspray," "There Will Be Blood"
Long Shots — "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead," "Eastern Promises," "Gone Baby Gone," "Into the Wild"

FILM LEAD ACTOR
Sure Bets — George Clooney ("Michael Clayton"), Daniel Day—Lewis ("There Will Be Blood"), Johnny Depp ("Sweeney Todd ")
Probables — James McAvoy ("Atonement") Denzel Washington ("American Gangster")
Possibles — Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl"), Tom Hanks ("Charlie Wilson's War"), Emile Hirsch ("Into the Wild")
Long Shots — John Cusack, ("Grace Is Gone"), Philip Seymour Hoffman ("The Savages"), Tommy Lee Jones ("In the Valley of Elah"), Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises")

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FILM LEAD ACTRESS
Sure Bets — Julie Christie ("Away From Her"), Ellen Page ("Juno")
Probables — Amy Adams ("Enchanted"), Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose"), Keira Knightley ("Atonement"), Angelina Jolie ("A Mighty Heart")
Possibles — Cate Blanchett ("Elizabeth: The Golden Age"), Helena Bonham Carter ("Sweeney Todd"), Laura Linney ("The Savages")
Long Shots — Nikki Blonsky ("Hairspray"), Jodie Foster ("The Brave One")

FILM SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sure Bets — Casey Affleck ("Assassination of Jesse James"), Javier Bardem ("No Country for Old Men"), Tom Wilkinson ("Michael Clayton")
Probables — Hal Holbrook ("Into the Wild"), John Travolta ("Hairspray")
Possibles — Russell Crowe ("American Gangster"), Albert Finney ("Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"), Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Charlie Wilson's War")
Long Shots — Philip Bosco ("The Savages"), Paul Dano ("There Will Be Blood"), Tommy Lee Jones ("No Country for Old Men"), Max von Sydow ("Diving Bell & the Butterfly")

FILM SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sure Bets — Cate Blanchett ("I'm Not There"), Amy Ryan ("Gone Baby Gone"), Tilda Swinton ("Michael Clayton")
Probables — Saoirse Ronan ("Atonement"), Marisa Tomei ("Before the Devil Knows You're Dead")
Possibles — Ruby Dee ("American Gangster"), Catherine Keener ("Into the Wild"), Vanessa Redgrave ("Atonement")
Long Shots — Olympia Dukakis ("Away from Her"), Kelly MacDonald ("No Country for Old Men"), Julia Roberts ("Charlie Wilson's War")

TV COMEDY ENSEMBLE
Sure Bets — "Desperate Housewives," "The Office," "Ugly Betty"
Probables — "Entourage," "30 Rock"
Possibles — "Curb Your Enthusiasm," "Pushing Daisies," "Weeds"
Long Shots — "Californication," "My Name Is Earl," "Scrubs," "Two and a Half Men"

TV COMEDY ACTOR
Sure Bets — Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock"), Steve Carell ("The Office"), Jeremy Piven ("Entourage")
Probables — Lee Pace ("Pushing Daisies"), Tony Shalhoub ("Monk"), Rainn Wilson ("The Office")
Possibles — Larry David ("Curb Your Enthusiasm"), David Duchovny ("Californication"), Neil Patrick Harris ("How I Met Your Mother"), Charlie Sheen ("Two and a Half Men")
Long Shots — Zach Braff ("Scrubs"), Kevin Dillon ("Entourage"), Ricky Gervais ("Extras"), Kelsey Grammer ("Back to You")

TV COMEDY ACTRESS
Sure Bets — America Ferrera ("Ugly Betty"), Mary—Louise Parker ("Weeds"), Jaime Pressly ("My Name Is Earl")
Probables — Tina Fey ("30 Rock"), Felicity Huffman ("Desperate Housewives"), Julia Louis—Dreyfuss ("New Adventures of Old Christine"),
Possibles — Christina Applegate ("Samantha Who?"), Marcia Cross ("Desperate Housewives"), Elizabeth Perkins ("Weeds")
Long Shots — Anna Friel ("Pushing Daisies"), Patricia Heaton ("Back to You"), Vanessa Williams ("Ugly Betty")

TV DRAMA ENSEMBLE
Sure Bets — Grey's Anatomy, The Sopranos
Probables — Boston Legal, Brothers & Sisters, Heroes, House
Possibles — Big Love, Dexter, Lost, Mad Men
Long Shots — The Closer, Damages, The Riches, The Tudors, 24

TV DRAMA ACTOR
Sure Bets — James Gandolfini ("The Sopranos"), Michael C. Hall ("Dexter"), Hugh Laurie ("House")
Probables — Ted Danson ("Damages"), James Spader ("Boston Legal"), William Shatner ("Boston Legal")
Possibles — Michael Imperioli ("The Sopranos"), Eddie Izzard ("The Riches"), Bill Paxton ("Big Love"), Kiefer Sutherland ("24")
Long Shots — Patrick Dempsey ("Grey's Anatomy"), Jon Hamm ("Mad Men"), T.R. Knight ("Grey's Anatomy"), Jonathan Rhys—Meyers ("The Tudors")

TV DRAMA ACTRESS
Sure Bets — Glenn Close ("Damages"), Edie Falco ("The Sopranos"), Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer")
Probables — Minnie Driver ("The Riches"), Sally Field ("Brothers & Sisters"), Holly Hunter ("Saving Grace")
Possibles — Katherine Heigl ("Grey's Anatomy"), Sandra Oh ("Grey's Anatomy"), Chandra Wilson ("Grey's Anatomy")
Long Shots — Patricia Arquette ("Medium"), Calista Flockhart ("Brothers & Sisters"), Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order: SVU")

TV MOVIE/MINISERIES ACTOR
Sure Bets — Adam Beach ("Bury My Heart At Wounded Knee"), Jim Broadbent ("Longford")
Probables — Michael Keaton ("The Company"), Kevin Kline ("As You Like It"), Oliver Platt ("The Bronx is Burning")
Possibles — Jason Isaacs ("The State Within"), Alfred Molina ("The Company"), Andy Serkis ("Longford")
Long Shots — Joe Mantegna ("The Starter Wife"), August Schellenberg ("Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee"), John Turturro ("The Bronx is Burning")

TV MOVIE/MINISERIES ACTRESS
Sure Bets — Queen Latifah ("Life Support"), Debra Messing ("The Starter Wife"), Samantha Morton ("Longford")
Probables — Judy Davis ("The Starter Wife"), Bryce Dallas Howard ("As You Like It"), Anna Paquin ("Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee")
Possibles — Gena Rowlands ("What If God Were the Sun?"), Sissy Spacek ("Pictures of Hollis Woods"), Ruth Wilson ("Jane Eyre")
Long Shots — Ellen Burstyn ("For One More Day"), Sharon Gless ("The State Within"), Alfre Woodard ("Pictures of Hollis Woods")


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Comments

How could you not even suggest Friday Night Lights as a long shot for best drama? Or Kyle Chandler and Connie Britton in the actor/actress categories? Just because it regrettably isn't getting the ratings it deserves doesn't mean it shouldn't get the artistic honors it REALLY deserves!

Marion Cotillard will win the SAG. Probable nod? You must be kidding.

Marion Cotillard a probable nomination? That's craziness; it WILL happen.

Why isn't Marion Cotillard a sure bet?



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