According to the posters in our forums, "Atonement" and "No Country for Old Men" are the favorites to be named best picture when the National Board of Review when it unveils winners on Wednesday. (CLICK HERE to see their predix.)

Hmmmm. I guess it's possible "Atonement" could prevail, but that's one of two frontrunners to win best picture at the Oscars (the other is "Sweeney Todd," you dummy) and NBR rarely goes for one of those. The winner tends to be one of those films that gets nominated for the top Oscar, but doesn't have a chance to win. Or the board likes to push its own ponies into the derby, which it does successfully sometimes ("Gods and Monsters"), but not others ("Quills").

Here's the list of the NBR's best-pic winners over the past 10 years: "Letters from Iwo Jima," "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Finding Neverland," "Mystic River," "The Hours," "Moulin Rouge!" "Quills," "American Beauty," "Gods and Monsters" and "L.A. Confidential."

Only one was the top Oscar winner, of course ("American Beauty"). Seven others were nominated for best pic by academy members. All of them have literary panache or else political relevance.

The one film that won't win is "No Country for Old Men." That's the critics' movie and NBR is not a critics' group despite widespread assumptions to the contrary. It's more like an Enlightened People's Choice Award that's bestowed by New York doctors, lawyers, teachers and other white-collar professionals who pay several hundred dollars per year to be part of the board's screening teams. Those members only get partial vote input, however, when awards are decided. Their input is mixed partially (in small part, truth be told) with the views of the Exceptional Photoplay Committee, whose less than 20 members really have the most clout. I've met many of them. They're an odd lot.

And, oh, yeah, they tend not to like mucho-macho pix, so that's another reason to nix "No Country." You can also rule out "American Gangster," "3:10 to Yuma" and "There Will Be Blood" for the same reason.

"Sweeney Todd" is possible because NBR does like musicals ("Moulin Rouge") and kinky pix ("Quills" bordered on sadistic porn). And since they really like George Clooney (they picked "Good Night, and Good Luck," remember), that means "Michael Clayton" could happen.

Below are the top candidates. Which one do YOU think will win?