Good news, Joel & Ethan! DGA victory = (almost automatic) Oscar
As all Oscarologists know, what we've believed to be true during this derby season so far is now official: looks like best-pic pony "No Country for Old Men" and its helmers are now inevitably Oscar-bound.
Over the past 59 years, there's been an impressive 90 percent agreement rate between the guild's and academy's directoring awards and, of course, the movie that wins best director wins best picture about 90 percent of the time.
There have been six exceptions to matchups in the directing race:
1968 — Anthony Harvey, "The Lion in Winter" (DGA); Carol Reed, "Oliver!" (Oscar)
1972 — Francis Ford Coppola, "The Godfather" (DGA); Bob Fosse, "Cabaret" (Oscar)
1985 — Steven Spielberg, "The Color Purple" (DGA); Sydney Pollack, "Out of Africa" (Oscar)
1995 — Ron Howard, "Apollo 13" (DGA); Mel Gibson, "Braveheart" (Oscar)
2000 — Ang Lee, "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" (DGA); Steven Soderbergh, "Traffic" (Oscar)
2002 — Rob Marshall, "Chicago" (DGA); Roman Polanski, "The Pianist" (Oscar)
3 of the 6 exceptions have come in the past 12 years, so although this is still a strong precursor, automatic is way overstating things.
(And 5 of the last 12 best pictures were films not directed by DGA winners).
Also, this is the earliest the DGA has ever awarded, and the first time it was the first of the major guilds to do so - does that mean anything? Who knows?
With the Coens up for three other Oscars, this could also discount their "automatic" status this year.
Are they the favorites for best director? Sure, that's fair. But far from automatic.
Posted by: seanflynn | January 27, 2008 at 12:46 PM
Two caveats:
Recent history is always more relevant than the totality - of the last 12 DGA winners, 3 have not won the directing Oscar (25%), so it has fallen in its precursor value (though still high).
And five of the last 12 DGA winners have seen their films not win the Oscar best picture.
Also, for the first time, the DGA award is the first of the major guilds, and earlier than it has ever been. Not sure what if any impact this will have, but should be noted.
Anderson (because this is his likeliest Oscar, with the Coens up for three others) and to a lesser extent Schnabel are still competitive for the Oscar.
Posted by: seanflynn | January 27, 2008 at 12:15 PM