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PREDICTIONS: Who'll win SAG and DGA

January 25, 2008 |  6:43 pm

Below: forecasts in the film categories. To see TV predix — CLICK HERE! Also check out the predix of our dueling forum moderators, Robert "Rob L" Licuria and Chris "Boomer" BeachumCLICK HERE! Their TV predix: HERE.

BEST DIRECTOR - DGA
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
X - Joel and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Sean Penn, "Into the Wild"
Julian Schnabel, "Diving Bell and the Butterfly"

Sometimes DGA members swoon too much over celebs, as I note HERE, which means Sean Penn could pull off an upset. And what Anderson pulls off in "Blood" may strike them as a bigger, grander achievement cinematically, but everybody knows: This is the Coen Brothers' Year.


Sag_predixSCREEN ACTORS GUILD

BEST ACTOR - FILM
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
X - Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Emile Hirsch, "Into The Wild"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

George Clooney holds a SAG I.O.U. — they snubbed him the year he won for "Syriana," preferring shlubby Paul Giamatti, who they probably viewed as more of an actors' actor. That proves that voters don't fall for the matinee dash of celebrityhood, so Clooney is in big trouble again with his guild peers this year. He's up against The Ultimate Actor's Actor — a guy who famously goes to ridiculous lengths to immerse himself in his roles. Daniel Day-Lewis won several years ago for "Gangs of New York," (Adrien Brody beat him at the Oscars), so he should have an easy time of it again.

CLICK HERE to Read MORE!

BEST ACTRESS - FILM
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
X - Julie Christie, "Away From Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Julie Christie will probably win. Not only does SAG often prefer veterans, but she's the only nominee in this lineup whose studio campaigned aggressively with DVDs. Lionsgate sent out screeners of "Away from Her" to all 100,000 guild members, but did they watch it? Many Hollywooders won't, or else turn it off midway through, because they can't handle the Alzheimer's ick. However, Alzheimer's is obviously a physical disability, a factor that often helps actors to win awards, of course.

However, Christie still needs to be leery of Page. If "Juno" is really this year's "Little Miss Sunshine" — and it is — then voters will be looking for some place to reward it. The snobs on the nominating committee (just 2,100 voters) didn't put it in the ensemble category — which "Sunshine" won last year — probably because it features too many TV actors instead of silver-screen stars. The mass electorate may not hold that against the film and, meantime, may be be eager to officially anoint this year's breakout new star, too. That crowning moment is what all actors secretly happens to them someday.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - FILM
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
X - Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Hal Holbrook, "Into The Wild"
Tommy Lee Jones, "No Country For Old Men"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

All the gushing and carrying on over "No Country for Old Men" has mostly to do with Javier's hypnotically evil turn. Voters won't have the nerve to turn their backs on this sneak serial killer, but they'll be tempted to hail veteran Holbrook. But only tempted.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - FILM
X - Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Catherine Keener, "Into The Wild"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Anyone but Keener can win. Blanchett's Golden Globe win proves that the Amy Ryan Mania was mostly among film critics. I think this race is a close one pitting Blanchett vs. Dee vs. Swinton. Personally, I'm rooting for Dee, but I have a hunch that Blanchett's Cool Factor is too high and that fellow actors really dig how she dared to take on the gender-bender challenge of doing Dylan.


ENSEMBLE CAST - FILM
"3:10 to Yuma"
"American Gangster"
X - "Hairspray"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"

The movie that wins here is usually one that emphasizes a true group acting experience, so forget "Into the Wild" and "American Gangster." Probably nix "Yuma," too. "Hairspray" fits this description best, so I'm betting on it even though it has a silly sensibility that may turn off SAG snobs. "No Country" is right behind. Close behind. With the oxygen tank and a bad haircut. Watch out!

STUNTS - FILM
"300"
X - "The Bourne Ultimatum"
"I Am Legend"
"The Kingdom"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"

Hard to predict since this new category has no history, but "Bourne" and "Pirates" are probably the most acrobatic films. There's more tumbling and swashbuckling going on in "Pirates," but it's a muddle of a movie. "Bourne" is a smarter, slicker flick, a sophisticated ballet.


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Comments

Would anyone care to comment on these organizations odd habit of putting Cate Blanchett in the supporting category? This is an A list 'star.' When you are the point of focus of a segment of a film, like I'm Not There, who exactly are you 'supporting?' Yourself? Even in The Aviator she was ostensibly the female lead in quite a long film, from which she only disappeared for about an hour and then blazed back with another galvanizing scene. Same with Notes On A Scandal. Clearly a co-leading role. I've nothing against Cate Blanchett, have been watching her since Oscar and Lucinda, and almost every appearance is an occasion. I just believe the supporting category should be the venue to give a leg up to someone on the rise, ie. Amy Ryan making a splash; performers who are part of the fabric of a film, as are Tilda Swinton and Ruby Dee and Hal Holbrook this year. Just a thought. The supporting categories see alot of A listers slumming for awards, and often winning. Clooney, Nicholson to name some obvious culprits. I know, I know, it's the studios, the agents, the contracts. Just seems an injustice and something that doesn't raise much ink anymore.

I agree with all of your predix here. But the contention that Clooney was "snubbed" for "Syriana" is something that I can't agree with. That was an incredibly weak year, to be sure, but Clooney's We-Love-Your-Politics-And-Your-Speeches-And-We-Want-To-Award-You-Somewhere-But-Not-For-Director win ranks as one of Oscar's worst acting awards of all time.

I would love to see Paul Thomas Anderson pull off the DGA, but I don't see it either. I agree Tom, it looks to be the Coens year.

Sorry to confuse you, Rob. Definitely Javier. I've cleaned text up a bit to clear up any other potential confusion

I'm confused, Tom - are you predicting Javier Bardem or Hal Holbrook to win? You've placed your X next to Holbrook's name, but you say voters "won't have the nerve" not to honor Bardem. Which is it?


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