"It ain't going to be so easy for Cate Blanchett to win the Oscar again, like she did the last time!" huffed a normally Oscar-savvy pal of mine. "Her competition in the supporting race is much more fierce now with Amy Ryan, Ruby Dee . . . "

"Wait a minute!" I howled. "Easy? Blanchett was no shoo-in three years ago!"

Let's take a look back at the 2004 derby and clear up this widely believed falsehood.

Virginia Madsen ("Sideways") had the early momentum after sweeping all of the biggie film critics' awards: New York Film Critics Circle, Los Angeles Film Critics Assn., National Society of Film Critics and Broadcast Film Critics Assn. Madsen even won the Indie Spirit.

Usually, that adds up to Oscar inevitability, but Natalie Portman ("Closer") pulled off a coup at the Golden Globes, thereby complicating the category.

Then Blanchett shook up everything by winning SAG. However, the guild award merely had a 50% prediction rate at the Oscars in the supporting slots at that point — and wasn't doing particularly well most recently, nailing only 3 out of 8 champs over the previous 4 years.

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Posters at this website are so obsessed with awards that they're not content with merely tracking Oscars, Golden Globes and other kudos bestowed by other folks. They must bestow their own, which they've done for many years dating back to when this site was GoldDerby.com, prior to being folded into the launch of TheEnvelope.com in November 2005.

So the tradition continues and today our poster unveiled their nominees for the best film work of the year. One nice, big surprise in the best picture list: "Sweeney Todd"! Hooray. Also included: Oscar nominees "Atonement," "Juno," "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood." Curiously, there are six nominees, which is one more than the Oscars (and one less than this year's Golden Globes), but that choice is not Oscar rival "Michael Clayton," but rather "Into the Wild."

"Atonement" leads with the most noms (11), followed by "No Country" and "Sweeney" (9). Shut out: "American Gangster" and "3:10 to Yuma." READ MORE!

"If the Oscars happen, the Academy may want to consider setting up a maternity ward on the red carpet, because it looks like this could be an Academy Awards baby boom," notes Marc Malkin of E! Online, citing the bulging bellies of double nominee Cate Blanchett and award presenters Nicole Kidman and Jessica Alba. "No word yet on whether Oscar winner Angelina Jolie, the source of much pregnancy speculation at the moment, will be hitting the Kodak Theatre for the big night, which is still scheduled for Feb. 24."

The Oscars have revealed more of what Plan B will be in case the writers' strike derails Plan A. As the Associated Press story notes, it "would include history, film clips and out-of-the-ordinary concepts for the awards show."  

I've said it before, but this bears repeating: What's the Big Rush, Sid Ganis and Gil Cates? You're the Oscars. You're the only awards group that produces its own telecast — you have leverage the Golden Globes and People's Choice Awards didn't. You can push the show back to April when it used to be held quite often. In fact, during the 30 years between 1960 and 1990, the Oscarcast was held in April 21 times! Putting it there one more time during a period of industry crisis wouldn't be so terrible.

The priority should be the ceremony going on as usual, with or without TV cameras. The academy needs to send the message that the Oscarfest exists chiefly as an annual gathering of the Hollywood family, so that the clan can acknowledge the best film work achieved by family members. The fact that TV cameras are present, permitting the rest of us to see what's going on, ought to be a secondary consideration. But if it's really so important to you — and with it the $30 million the academy earns as a result — then just delay the ceremony to April. The strike will probably be resolved by then. Instead, by pressing ahead with the possibility of airing a TV show that will not include the gathered clan, you're telling us that the Oscars are really, first and foremost, a TV show. Wow. I'm shocked — and saddened — to hear this.

With the news that "Crash" — Oscar's best-picture champ of 2005 — is being turned into a television series, now is a good time to take a look back at the TV track record of other Oscar contenders. Of the 23 such films that have gone from the big screen to the small one, only four have made for series that lasted more than one season. But even such a small rate of success won't stop producers from continuing to try and take a proven property and squeeze more life out of it. After all, as that curmudgeonly wag Fred Allen once remarked, "Imitation is the sincerest form of television."

"L.A. Confidential" (1997)

The 2003 HBO pilot featured Kiefer Sutherland in the Kevin Spacey role with lesser known actors Josh Hopkins and David Conrad filling in for Russell Crowe and Guy Pearce.

"Fargo" (1996)

The 1997 CBS pilot starred Edie Falco in Frances McDormand's Oscar-winning part of Marge Gunderson and was directed by Oscar-winner Kathy Bates.

"The Fugitive" (1993)

This serial drama went full circle from ABC's highest rated series of the mid-1960s (it won the 1966 Emmy) with David Janssen as the wrongfully accused man to a vehicle for Harrison Ford to a one-season wonder on CBS in 2000 with Tim Daly as the runner and Mykelti Williamson ("Forrest Gump") reprising Oscar-winner Tommy Lee Jones' role as the chaser.

"Driving Miss Daisy" (1989)

The 1992 CBS pilot of the best picture winner starred Joan Plowright and Emmy winner Robert ("Benson") Guillaume instead of Oscar winner Jessica Tandy and Morgan Freeman.

"Working Girl" (1988)

This short-lived 1990 NBC sitcom had Sandra Bullock stepping into the running shoes of the original working girl, Oscar nominee Melanie Griffith.

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Amy Winehouse may want to attend the Grammys on Feb. 10, but it doesn't look like she can go, go, go. She's too busy going to rehab, to which she'd earlier said, "No, no, no," of course.

"I'm not sure the Grammys are going to happen," her father told the London Mirror. "I don't want her to go — I think it might be a bit too soon for her. She's not well -- that's why she's in rehab. But she's doing OK. She is getting good treatment."

However, one of Winehouse's pals told the New York Post's Page Six: "Amy has been told she is going to appear at the Grammys in February and she agreed, but I was with Amy two days ago and if you had seen how bad she was you would agree the poor girl shouldn't be going anywhere, least of all to the States for an awards appearance.

To see the answer, click the "continue reading" line below these photo choices.

Sing out the good news, "Once" fans! Carpetbagger reports that the Oscars have OK'd the nomination of "Falling Slowly" for best song, after all. Good thing they got that out of the way right away since ballots get shipped out today. READ MORE.

Sure, Julie Christie has already won the Golden Globe and SAG Award, but keep a few pointers in mind. Globers often pick more mature actresses than Oscar voters: for example, Brenda Blethyn ("Secrets and Lies") and Judi Dench ("Mrs. Brown"), both of whom lost the Oscar. It's possible that Christie's win was part of that vote trend that may not translate to the Oscars where voters tend to prefer young, hip gals, even newbies (six of the past 10 winners were first-time nominees). At SAG, it's possible that Christie won because her film was the only one of the five in that race that had been sent via DVD to the full membership (100,000 plus). If so, then Ellen Page ("Juno") and Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose") are still in this race. What do YOU think?

"Sunday's telecast of the Screen Actors Guild Awards delivered its best ratings in major demos since it first appeared on cable in 1998," notes the Hollywood Reporter. "More than 6.1 million viewers watched the two-hour telecast on TNT and TBS, Nielsen Media Research said Tuesday. That's higher than last year, which had been the best ratings in the history of the SAG Awards." READ MORE.