BEST ACTRESS - TV DRAMA SERIES
Glenn Close, "Damages"
Edie Falco, "The Sopranos"
X - Sally Field, "Brothers & Sisters"
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace"
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"

Hmmm. They might want to give Edie Falco a buh-bye hug, too, but Megan Mullally didn't get one when Hayes did after "Will & Grace" skeedattled. Glenn Close will win the TV Critics Association Award next year for the same reason she just won the Golden Globe: those small groups of sophisticated voters have actually seen "Damages" and are wowed by a class act in top form. But keep in mind that all of SAG's 100,000 members are voting. When predicting winnahs, if not picking an HBO star, stick with ones appearing on broadcast TV channels like Sally Field, a double Oscar champ slumming it on TV. That impresses hell outta workaday actors in the guild and everybody really, really likes the performances she gives at award podiums. Surely, they'll want to see if SAG censors her like the Emmys did when Field launches into another Iraq attack.

BEST ACTOR - TV COMEDY SERIES
X - Alec Baldwin,"30 Rock"
Steve Carell, "The Office"
Ricky Gervais, "Extras"
Jeremy Piven, "Entourage"
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk"

Repeats are especially common in this category, so Baldwin will be back.

BEST ACTRESS - TV COMEDY SERIES
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?"
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty"
X - Tina Fey, "30 Rock"
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds"
Vanessa Williams, "Ugly Betty"

Applegate and Parker can't win because their series are little-seen. Voters — those hungry actors grateful for any morsel of work they can get — often like to pick supporting stars over lead ones as a way of insisting that there's no such thing as a small role. How nice if that benefitted Vanessa Williams, but actors probably dismiss her as an ex-beauty queen, notoriously defrocked. That leaves us with last year's champ Ferrera — who I just don't see as strong enough to pull off a double victory — and Tina Fey, who may be regarded less as actress than writer/producer. However, all ego-mad actors secretly want to run the whole show, so Fey it is.

BEST ENSEMBLE - TV DRAMA SERIES
"Boston Legal"
"The Closer"
X - "Grey's Anatomy"
"Mad Men"
"The Sopranos"

"Mad Men" is the hot new TV thing, but I don't think enough voters have seen it yet. This is probably a race between last year's champ "Grey's Anatomy" and 1999 ensemble winner "Sopranos." I think they'll stick by "Grey's" the same way they used to vote automatically every year (1995-98) for another medical show in this category, "E.R."

BEST ENSEMBLE - TV COMEDY SERIES
"30 Rock"
"Desperate Housewives"
"Entourage"
X - "The Office"
"Ugly Betty"

If "Ugly Betty" didn't win last year, it ain't gonna prevail now. "Housewives" and "Entourage" are old news. This battle: "30 Rock" vs. "The Office." Since I think they'll lean heavily toward "Rock" in the solo acting races, they'll repeat last year's "Office" win here.

BEST STUNTS - TV SERIES
X - "24"
"Heroes"
"Lost"
"Rome"
"The Unit"

The stars of "24" and "Heroes" go through the most circus gymnastics. I have a hunch there's higher viewer loyalty to long-running "24."

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I'm exempting myself from the TV movie/mini races because I'm not up on all the pix.