Just like we saw at SAG, beware: the December releases will probably get skunked.
So forget late-comers "There Will Be Blood'," "Atonement" and "Juno." DGA loves actors-turned-directors even more so than the Oscars, so Sean Penn ("Into the Wild") is definitely in. However, the guild is traditionally cruel to art-house pix, so forget Julian Schnabel ("Diving Bell").
Or am I wrong? CLICK HERE to see predix from other pundits. Below is my forecast.
MY NO-GUTS-NO-GLORY PREDIX:
Tim Burton, "Sweeney Todd" *
Joel and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Sidney Lumet, "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
Sean Penn, "Into the Wild"
Ridley Scott, "American Gangster"
* NOTE: Amended at 6:40 p.m. PT, switching from David Cronenberg, "Eastern Promises"
Other contenders: Ben Affleck ("Gone Baby Gone"), Tony Gilroy ("Michael Clayton"), Paul Greengrass, ("The Bourne Ultimatum"), Ang Lee ("Lust, Caution"), James Mangold ("3:10 to Yuma"), Mike Nichols ("Charlie Wilson's War")
The key to predicting DGA is to remember these factors: the group is comprised of 13,000 members who primarily work in television, not feature films. About 8,000 live in the Los Angeles area — the rest are scattered across the U.S. They are not permitted to receive DVDs, so they must view films at industry screenings or their local Cineplex. Considering all that — plus the fact that DGA ballots were shipped the first week of December — how many members do you think have seen December release "Diving Bell and the Butterfly"? Also, keep this in mind: DGA uses a weighted ballot, not a preferential one. If you don't know the difference, you haven't been reading Gold Derby regularly. Shame, shame!