On the other hand, it's not unusual for Academy members to vote their hopes over their fears — or don't you remember "Rocky's" feel-good triumph over darker 1976 front-runners "All the President's Men" and "Network"? "Juno," though just as indie-scruffy as "Little Miss Sunshine," is now riding waves of good will and killer business that could very well extend, if not magnify through February. The writers' strike has put exactly no one in a happy frame of mind and the key question is whether Hollywood wants something that matches its depressed mood or provides a tonic for it.

At least for the moment, I'm not thinking tonic here . . .

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
X - Joel & Ethan Coen, "No Country For Old Men"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Jason Reitman, "Juno"
Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"

In a loony, volatile year like this one, anything is possible, especially here. "Juno" is more a writers' triumph than a directorial achievement, so Reitman's not a factor unless the aforementioned waves assume near tsunami levels. That Schnabel's film has made this list and the DGA's suggests how much people really love what he's done, even if it's a foreign-language film. Somehow, though, I can easily see the Coens getting what was denied them (or at least Joel) about a decade ago with "Fargo."

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
X - Julie Christie, "Away From Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

The buzz swirling around this category has focused on Page somehow benefiting from the good will poured upon "Juno" and vaulting past this high-powered phalanx of competitors. Page is very funny and wicked bright. But let's calm down, shall we? Look again at those other names . . . . If the category were "supporting actress," history would be more on Page's side. But here?

Cotillard's been making the rounds with heroic verve. If voters haven't gotten around to seeing her as Piaf, they may get around to doing so on their DVDs and then start building small fires on her behalf. That still sounds like a big "if."

This leaves Christie, who's not a happy camper among Hollywood smoothies — and the feeling, one guesses, is mutual. But she's a still-luminous-looking-after-all-these-years woman who has willfully distorted herself for a higher purpose. Even the cutest, freshest hotshot hasn't a chance against such accomplished daring; the kind that the Academy frequently rewards.

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
X - Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Johnny Depp, "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
Tommy Lee Jones, "In the Valley of Elah"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

This would have been a lot easier to handicap if "Sweeney Todd" had collected more nominations. The Academy would like nothing better than a chance to reward Depp for all he's done for the business. But though Depp definitely showed up to play, his movie may have let him down. Jones' movie wasn't all that strong a performer either, yet he got some of the best reviews of his career — which is saying a lot. And "D-Day" should never be counted out, even (or especially) when he's playing a crazy sonofabitch. He gets a tentative nod, though my crystal ball's a little too cloudy here to be totally sure.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement"
X - Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

In essence, it's a two-woman race pitting Blanchett's dazzling impersonation of Dylan the Sixties Super-Brat against Ryan's explosive depiction of a desperately bewildered screw-up. Both are brilliant and altogether persuasive and, if it comes down to anything with Academy voters, it's which one hasn't won before now.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
X - Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook, "Into The Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

People really admire Bardem's evocation of cold-blooded evil. On the other hand, people really love Hal Holbrook. Sentiment rarely enters into this category, where voters are more inclined to reward the performance more emphatically than the performer. Then again, Holbrook's really good in this movie. Something could flip here.

BEST ORGINAL SCREENPLAY
X - "Juno"
"Lars and the Real Girl"
"Michael Clayton"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"

How ironic to note that, in the middle of an emotionally bruising and protracted writers' strike, we're staring at the strongest field for screenwriting in many a year. Any one of these is a legitimate winner, but, as a classmate of Juno McGuff's might say, "Um . . . duuh?"

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"Atonement"
"Away From Her"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
X - "No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

An equally rich field of worthy nominees — and here, too, one leans towards the movie with more momentum.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
"Persepolis"
X - "Ratatouille"
"Surf's Up"

Disney-Pixar is always a safe bet, especially when the movie's as good as this one.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
"Die Falscher" (Austria)
"Beaufort" (Israel)
"Mongol" (Kazakhstan)
X - "Katyn" (Poland)
"12" (Russia)

Here I have nothing to go on besides Andrzei Wadja's good name. That may be enough, but I need to see a couple more of these before I'm sure.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
"No End in Sight"
"Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience"
"Sicko"
"Taxi to the Dark Side"
X - "War Dance"

Both Iraq fatigue and Michael Moore fatigue may cause four very fine candidates to slip off the tree while the voters go for the feel-good prospect.

ORIGINAL SONG
"Raise it Up" from "August Rush"
"Happy Wedding Song" from "Enchanted"
"So Close" from "Enchanted"
"That's How You Know" from "Enchanted"
X - "Falling Slowly" from "Once"

Of the "Enchanted" trio, "That's How You Know" is the wittiest. But why do I think there may be a canceling-out effect ultimately favoring the Little Irish Musical That Could?