Oscars' best-picture derby: Down to 6 ponies?
It's starting to look as if Oscar's best picture race has whittled down to six films. The five flicks nominated yesterday by the Producers Guild of America also happen to be the ones that have the most guild bids over all, as Kris Tapley points out at his updated 
roundup at his Red Carpet blog at Variety.com: "No Country for Old Men" (8), "There Will Be Blood" (7), "Michael Clayton" (6), "Diving Bell and the Butterly" (5) and "Juno" (4).
"Juno" wasn't nominated by the most trusty indicator, the directors guild, which has correctly forecasted the best-pic lineup 24 times out of its past 25 nominations. Its fifth honoree this year was "Into the Wild," which was shunned by PGA. All other four films reaped bids from both guilds.
Last year "Dreamgirls" got nommed by both DGA and PGA, but got bumped by "Letters from Iwo Jima" at the Oscars. In 2005, DGA lined up with Oscar's best-pic nominees, but PGA opted for "Walk the Line" over "Munich." Sometimes PGA takes sharp left turns like "The Incredibles" and "The Last Samurai" in recent years, and, in addition to "Dreamgirls," there's at least one more case in recent years where both guilds opted for one film that got snubbed by Oscar voters. That's what happened to "Almost Famous" in 2000. Instead, academy voters had a taste for "Chocolat," which was snubbed by both DGA and PGA. At least "Chocolat" got a WGA bid. Best-pic nominees "Letters from Iwo Jima" (2006), "In the Bedroom" (2001) and "Elizabeth" (1998) were shut out by all three guilds.
But now it looks like the odds heavily favor the above-named 6 for the top 5 Oscar slots and responsible Oscarologists must acknowledge that.
Later today, when The Envelope's new Buzzmeter predix are posted, you will not spot "Sweeney Todd" in any of my top five notches for best pic. Just in acting for Johnny Depp.
R.I.P, dear Sweeney. Put your razor away. You reaped your revenge on screen and history will hail Tim Burton's genius in future years, as many film critics ("Something close to a masterpiece," decreed the New York Times) and filmgoers appreciate it now ($41 million so far — $2 million more than "Michael Clayton"). Who knew that the cutthroat Hollywood crowd would turn away so squeamishly from a little cartoonish blood when they spill so much more of the real stuff down studio halls every day? You will have ultimate revenge again, my friend.
Just not at the Oscars and you are in good company. Other materworks snubbed for best picture: "The African Queen," "East of Eden," "Psycho," "Some Like It Hot," "A Star Is Born," "2001: A Space Odyssey" and "Whatever Happened to Baby Jane?" Oh, yes, and "Dreamgirls."
Good lord. Depp fatigue? How about Clooney fatigue and with far more reason. I still can't understand the support for Michael Clayton other than everybody wants to be George's friend.
Posted by: KIC | January 16, 2008 at 11:49 AM
Oh give the Dreamgirls thing a rest Tom. The film's reputation has hardly soared since last year. Indeed, the thing is, I would guess, correctly regarded as a compromised piece of fluff. Sweeney is a much much better picture, but the notion that Joe the Sound Guy would notice the blood and ignore the fact that he was watching a musical never seemed plausible. I am happy that, after a few baffling months, the pundits have recognised that There Will be Blood cannot feasibly be omitted from the shortlist. What on earth were they thinking?
Posted by: Thebaldprod | January 16, 2008 at 06:53 AM
I hate all this poo pooing on HBC for her role in Sweeney Todd. Mainly because I disagree with the notion that she sucked because she was a horrible singer. HBC gave us, easily, one of the best musical film performances of all time if not one of the greatest performances in any film ever. And I don't care who knows it!
Posted by: AJ | January 15, 2008 at 06:30 PM
dw, I must respectfully disagree with you, on all counts. Would Broadway-voiced leads, less blood and a longer running time truly have altered the film's award potential? I think not. The story, the music and the melodrama either speak to a person, or they do not. I am happy that we now have the taped stage production for you, and this film for me. I applaud Mr. Burton for following his own vision rather than slavishly recreating the stage production on film. As to Mr. Sondheim 'changing his tune', I would be sorely disappointed, and very surprised.
Posted by: KW | January 15, 2008 at 05:04 PM
A. The Best Pic being mominated by everyone in AMPAS, whether "Sweeney" (and for that matter, "Atonement") is out of the running or -- should a logjam among all the dark and/or sparsely viewed-screener films occur -- unexpectedly included, depends on how many Academy members cite what film as #1, #2 or (this year in particular) #3 for Best Pic on their ballot.
B. Word on "Sweeney" being a film that people will see in years to come and realize what it achieved. With all the acclaim for "Chicago," "Dreamgirls," even "Hairspray," those movies retain a hybrid aspect between stage origins and movie language, splitting the difference with varying degrees of success at fusing them. Whereas "Sweeney," love it or hate it, is a total reconception of the property into film. It's the most effectively cinematic stage-to-screen musical since "Cabaret," period.
Next Tuesday will tell only this year's Oscar race, but future decades will continue to tell to tale of "Sweeney Todd."
Posted by: dorothy | January 15, 2008 at 02:53 PM
As someone who was a big fon of the original Sweeney Todd, I wish Sweeney gets nominated. But, comparisons to the broadway musical have kept it out of top five. Lets face it, the truncated part of Helen Bonham Carter makes me sad and a little mad. I personally don't mind all that blood, but to many it seems gimmicky or a stunt and that's a big turn off (it's not about being squeamish). As good as this Sweeney is, I still think they let a great opportunity slip away. They sould have cast two broadway stars who could blow you away. These are some of the best lyrics and they should have been shocased better. Depp is good but he is not a great singer. Sweeney is such a powerful story with extremely well written lyrics that even a simple direction would have landed it in the top five if they had stayed loyal to the original. I bet Sondheim will change is tune if Sweeny doesn't get a BP nomination.
Posted by: dw | January 15, 2008 at 02:51 PM
Condolences, Tom. At least you're objective enough to admit it when your pony is out of the race. But There Will Be Blood is looking very strong indeed, so it's not all bad news for you!
From those six, I'm tempted to say No Country, Blood, Clayton and Diving Bell are locks, largely because I believe only three films (Leaving Las Vegas, Being John Malkovich and Almost Famous) have failed to be nominated after receiving DGA, PGA and WGA noms. (Am I right about that?) For the fifth slot, I'm betting Juno beats Into the Wild by a hair, on the strength of its likeability. I really can't see any outsiders clawing their way back in at this stage.
By the way, it's not entirely fair to say In the Bedroom was snubbed by the WGA - it was ineligible, under the guild's tricky rules.
Posted by: Rob | January 15, 2008 at 02:47 PM
This is MEANINGLESS, you might have noticed it won a Golden Globe as Best Picture, Musical/Comedy.....who are these clowns anyway? It will win more than it's share......of awards. Relax.
Posted by: John | January 15, 2008 at 02:03 PM
Sweeney will be very close and is very worthy of the nomination should it receive one.
I have a feeling 'Diving Bell' will end up with a BD nom and the noms will be like this:
No Country
There Will Be Blood
Juno
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
If anything misses out I say its Michael Clayton for Sweeney Todd.
Posted by: dannyboy | January 15, 2008 at 12:55 PM
Im sad Atonement has dropped off people's lists. I sort of dont understand why, maybe you can illuminate us on this. Usually a British Period piece with Oscar Pedigree (Kiera, Vanessa and technical awards) from a celebrated book (Booker nominated and considered a modern masterpiece) is a sure shot nominee.
Posted by: Usman | January 15, 2008 at 12:23 PM
Sweeney was by far my favorite this year, but it's not in my predix either. That doesn't mean we can't hope for a SHOCKING inclusion!
The real works of genius are never recognized in their time. It's in good company.
Posted by: shelly | January 15, 2008 at 12:14 PM
ALL of those films are too little seen to win! If you do the "final ten" per se the only films that can win BP (when looking at BO) are American Gangster and Juno with There Will Be Blood and Sweeney Todd still able to get the "$40 million requirement" and it's more like $50 these days. No Country could eek past the $50 million mark. But if what you have is the final line up...Juno wins.
Posted by: AJ | January 15, 2008 at 11:56 AM
As sad as it is, Sweeney will live on in memory :-D
Posted by: Seth | January 15, 2008 at 10:52 AM
I still wouldn't count Sweeney Todd out of the running for Oscars just yet. But maybe there's a Tim Burton backlash or Johnny Depp fatigue? After all Tim Burton has never gotten a lot or no kudos for past works from any guilds...so it makes me wonder if there's just no love for Mr. Burton. I think AMPAS will probably want to be less predictable and go with the following:
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Michael Clayton
Into the Wild
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Juno is too light-weight, puff piece and over-hyped...not worthy of Best Pic a la Litt Miss Sunshine (the worst Best Pic nominee ever)....
Posted by: Frankie R. | January 15, 2008 at 10:22 AM
Tom, Tom, when are you going to get off the "Dreamgirls is a masterpiece" boat. It wasn't a masterpiece, and if not for Jennifer Hudson, would have been nearly unwatchable IMHO.
Posted by: Tony | January 15, 2008 at 09:57 AM
I'm sad Sweeney seems to be out of the race? Along with Once, it's my favorite pic this year. Brilliant.
Posted by: k_obrien | January 15, 2008 at 09:38 AM