SAG film predix smackdown: Rob L vs. Boomer
As regular Gold Derby readers know, our forums moderator Robert "Rob L" Licuria trounced colleague Chris "Boomer" Beachum at the recent Golden Globes and Emmys. Can Boomer rally? Read their predix and decide for yourself!
BEST ACTOR - FILM
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood" (ROB L, BOOMER)
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Emile Hirsch, "Into The Wild"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"
ROB L: In what I believe is a truly wonderful lineup this year, it seems that there is no stopping Daniel Day Lewis, who is expected to take this one easily on his way to his second Oscar for Best Actor. Clooney is still in with a shot, as we all know by now that Hollywood is ga-ga over George, and would love nothing more (apart from an end to the writers' strike) than to shower Clooney with awards so we can watch and listen to him talk about Hollywood politics and Barack Obama. Back on subject: Day-Lewis is the big white elephant in the room. How can voters ignore that performance? The other three deserving contenders don't really stand a chance, although I'd love for my personal fave Emile Hirsch to win this one.
BOOMER: This seems to be an easy call since Day-Lewis has been picking up a lot of steam with wins lately. The only other possible winner is Clooney, who hasn't been honored by the SAG voters before for his film work. The other three men should just be pleased with their nominations.
BEST ACTRESS - FILM
Julie Christie, "Away From Her" (ROB L, BOOMER)
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Ellen Page, "Juno"
ROB L: As a huge Cate fan, even I am astounded at how much attention her role in "Elizabeth: The Golden Turd" has received by awards groups. I presume that this is a filler nomination, as is Angelina Jolie's, who was great in "A Mighty Heart," by the way. This race is newcomer Page vs. foreign beauty Cotillard vs. vet Christie. I'm betting on Christie to continue her winning streak.
BOOMER: Once again, I'll strictly go with the lady with all of the trophies in recent weeks. Christie has never won a SAG Award before and has an incredibly fine acting career of over 40 years. She'll easily beat her competition here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - FILM
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men" (ROB L, BOOMER)
Hal Holbrook, "Into The Wild"
Tommy Lee Jones, "No Country For Old Men"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"
ROB L: If any of these five won, I'd be thrilled — all such wonderful performances, especially from my current personal fave Hal Holbrook. However, it seems that Javier Bardem is finally going to win some awards this year, for what I think is probably one of the best villainous performances for quite some time.
BOOMER: For prediction purposes, I'll certainly select Bardem, who gave one of the most memorable performances of the past decade. SAG voters have sometimes chosen long-time veteran actors in this category (Christopher Walken, Robert Duvall, Ed Harris, Albert Finney) that did not go on to win the Oscar that same year. For that reason, Holbrook does indeed have a decent chance to win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - FILM
Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There" (ROB L)
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Catherine Keener, "Into The Wild"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone" (BOOMER)
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"
ROB L: More excellent choices from the SAG voters — this is a real toss up between Cate Blanchett, who has been something of a frontrunner for some time now in the various supporting actress races of other awards groups. Tilda Swinton has made a good showing as well, and Amy Ryan came out of nowhere (in what I think is a somewhat overrated performance I might add, all due respect) to sweep most of the critics prizes. Ruby Dee's inclusion is fantastic — a beautiful, albeit brief performance that will hopefully garner a few more votes than what many of us expected. Catherine Keener is a SAG favorite, and might be a threat. In the end, I am going with my girl Cate to win for a most audacious performance.
BOOMER: This seems to be the only tough category among the film individual acting categories. Blanchett just won three years ago (although she could certainly win again). Many SAG voters might really identify with Ryan's story of being an actress with a wide assortment of small roles before hitting big. An upset win by Swinton could propel her into a "dark horse" win at the Oscars, though.
ENSEMBLE CAST - FILM
"3:10 to Yuma"
"American Gangster"
"Hairspray" (BOOMER)
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men" (ROB L)
ROB L: Again, I salute the SAG voters for voting for ensembles rather than what many see as a faux-best-picture category. Based on the best ensemble work, I'd give this award to "3:10 to Yuma" or "No Country for Old Men," and I have a feeling that "No Country for Old Men" is going to win this, which will be some consolation for the very puzzling snubbing by ALL awards groups of the superior performance by Josh Brolin. What does a guy have to do to get some attention? So good in "No Country" and "American Gangster"!
BOOMER: The snub of "Juno" in this category had to be the biggest surprise of awards season. I think it could have won this category if nominated (similar to recent wins by "Sideways" and "Little Miss Sunshine"). I don't think "3:10 to Yuma" or "American Gangster" can win, but the other three films are all in a dead heat. This category has not been a great indicator of the eventual Oscar winner, with only 5 out of 13 ensemble winners going on to win the Best Picture Award. Even though "No Country for Old Men" is the logical pick, I am going way out on a limb with the big surprise winner being "Hairspray."
STUNTS - FILM
"300"
"The Bourne Ultimatum" (ROB L)
"I Am Legend"
"The Kingdom"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" (BOOMER)
ROB L: Difficult to predict, I think that the most critically lauded film might win this race, which in my mind is otherwise quite competitive. The stunts in "Bourne" were amazing, so a win by that awesome film (which should be better represented in other categories).
BOOMER: I am really unsure of how to predict this category, but "POTC" has the largest number of stunt performers among the nominees and is a huge box office success.
