So . . . will Critics' Choice winners repeat at the Oscars?
Last year the Critics Choice Award was the only major showbiz kudo to foreshadow the big win of "The Departed" at the Oscars. It also did pretty well in other categories, getting best actor, actress and supporting actress correct, too. Arguably, if broadcast critics knew Eddie Murphy as well, ahem, as Hollywood honchos do, they might not have embraced him so eagerly with their supporting-actor prize.
The Critics Choice Award has the reputation of being a nifty Oscar forecaster, but the reality is something else. Over the past 10 years, it got only 6 best pictures right. Some top acting winners like Denzel Washington ("Training Day") and Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball") weren't even nominated.
But this year it might have another good year. It seemed to go with most Oscar frontrunners. Seven BFCA champs matched the frontrunners in eight of The Envelope's Buzzmeter categories: best picture ("No Country"), director (Coens), actor (Daniel Day-Lewis), supporting actor (Javier Bardem) and supporting actress (Amy Ryan ). Only in the actress race did they diverge: our pundits pick Marion Cotillard, BFCA opted for Julie Chrisite. Of course, Diablo Cody will win the Oscar for original screenplay just as she picked up the scripter's prize tonight for "Juno."
What will be different on Oscar night?
I don't think Julie Christie will repeat, for starters, and I'm not yet convinced that "No Country" will go all way in the top contest. Yes, it can, but when you talk to academy members, you hear lots of guffawing and hesitation about it. Oscar's best-picture race is really wide open. Javier is a lock in supporting actor, but Daniel Day-Lewis better watch out for George Clooney and even Johnny Depp ahead. Paul Thomas Anderson is coming on strong in the directors' race . . . In short, while Critics' Choice went with the frontrunners, I wouldn't bet on so many frontrunners in as crazy a year as this one.
How does one become a "frontrunner"? Anyone can be a "frontrunner"
inside a small circle of friends. And even the pols can get it totally wrong -- just ask New Hampshire.
Posted by: Amos | January 09, 2008 at 04:30 AM
just wondering if tom still thinks sweeney todd will win best pic!!
Posted by: Shane | January 08, 2008 at 01:14 PM
DGA NOMINEES:
JS-Diving Bell
JEC- No Country
PTA- There Will be Blood
TG- Micheal Clayton
SP- Into the Wild
Posted by: Wayne | January 08, 2008 at 10:59 AM
is it me or tom o'neill desperatly want NO COUNTRY to win. It seems that he doesn't admit BLOOD chances.
Posted by: daniel | January 08, 2008 at 08:33 AM
Tristan, Not to be clichéed, but remember 2004? Paul Giamatti, Imelda Staunton, Virginia Madsen and Thomas Hayden Church won close to all of the Critics' awards in sight: none of them won an Oscar. A Julie Christie win is realistic, but let's face it, until the point that she wins the Golden Globe and SAG, she cannot be called a lock. Even then, with enough momentum, Marion or Ellen could take it.
Posted by: David Acacia | January 08, 2008 at 06:30 AM
Now let me get this straight. If last year's critics had known Eddie Murphy "personally", then they wouldn't have chosen him as Best Supporting Actor!!! What kind of sense does that make? I thought the winners, especially with critics, should be based on their performance, NOT their actions on the set. Whatever you think of Mr. Murphy, personally, his performance was much better than Alan Arkin--Oh, but we like Alan as a person, so that's why he got the award! Did I get it right?
Posted by: Larry | January 08, 2008 at 05:43 AM
Still hanging onto the glimmer of hope for Depp and Sweeney Todd, eh, Tom? It's looking more and more like Dreamgirls last year... or maybe that's Atonement :)
Either way, I'm giving up the ghost on it getting a BP nomination... there just isn't the kind of love a movie needs to get through with so many better movies.
Posted by: Edward Douglas | January 08, 2008 at 03:12 AM
And why do you NOT think Julie Christie will win Best Actress??? This seems ALL too similar to your belief that Felicity Huffman would win Best Actress 2 years ago. Julie Christie has won the most critics awards, in fact almost all of them, and now she has won this, and yet you are STILL not convinced she will win Best Actress. You get stuck on all these people that you WANT to win and then you try to convince with all your might they are in fact the frontrunner, when they're actually not.
Posted by: Tristan | January 07, 2008 at 10:20 PM