"The Little Mermaid" — the fourth Disney toon to go from screen to stage — opened on Broadway last week to some of the worst reviews of the season so far. After the commercial success of "Beauty and the Beast," which ran for 13 years, and the critical acclaim heaped on "The Lion King," Disney has struck out twice: first with "Tarzan" two years ago and now "Mermaid."

Hoping to recapture the magic that made "The Lion King" into a smash that won 6 Tonys in 1998, including best musical, and is still playing, the Disney machine hired another avant-garde creative team. However, the reviews make it clear that opera director Francesca Zambello is no Julie Taymor. After this critical drubbing, will this tuner turn into another "Tarzan?" That highflying show slid off the vine last summer after only a 14 month run.

The critical drubbing of "Mermaid" leaves the race for the Tonys wide open. The brickbats thrown at "Young Frankenstein" last fall seem like bouquets in comparison and the summer's surprise hit, "Xanadu," a cheeky spoof of the camp 1980s classic, is running strong. Still to come into town are two more movie adaptations: "Cry Baby," which hopes to follow on the success of "Hairspray," another John Waters film come to life, and "A Catered Affair," Tony champ Harvey Fierstein's low-key musical adaptation of the 1950s film about a Bronx cabbie and his family struggling to pay for their daughter's wedding. The spoiler could well be off Broadway sensation "In the Heights," a gritty look at life among the Latino community of Washington Heights. That show won a special Drama Desk award last season and this spring's transfer is being produced by the same team behind the Tony-winning best musicals "Rent" and "Avenue Q."