Can Oscar's biggest loser finally win?

Looks like our feuding, clashing pundits drove our Buzzmeter crazy. Results seem as mixed up as we all are over who'll win best sound mixing — a category that is, listen up, really important this year because it looks like the best chance in eons for Oscar's biggest loser, Kevin O'Connell ("Transformers"), to finally win after 19 losses.

Several of Gold Derby's readers have sent me e-mails about the composite results here that show "No Country for Old Men" in front, followed by "Bourne Ultimatum," then "Transformers." However, as you point out, "Transformers" actually has the most pundits predicting its victory (10), followed by 9 for "No Country" and 5 for "Bourne." Logic suggests that our computer software is telling us "Bourne" must have more higher-ranked support consistently over "Transformers," and perhaps that's true, but I can't see it when looking at the grid you'll find by clicking on any link for "Individual Panelist's Rankings." That means nothing, though. I'm dumb about those things.

The race is clearly between those three, which are all nominated for the Cinema Audio Society Awards this weekend, too, which I'll be covering live. O'Connell and his longtime work partner Greg P. Russell have never won that award either. Must be a conspiracy.

At this point, just about everybody in Hollywood is aware of the plot and probably would like to heap laurels upon poor O'Connell and Russell to remedy things, especially after last year when O'Connell's mom died in his arms on Oscar night while the winner, Michael Minkler ("Dreamgirls") bashed the loser backstage, telling reporters that he thinks it's time O'Connell took up another line of work. This year they're more motivated than ever to make things right just like they did for Oscar's previous biggest loser, poor Randy Newman after 15 defeats in 2001 by giving him the song award for "If I Didn't Have You" from "Monsters, Inc." But there's an inevitable plot complication in this movie award category. It's different from a music race. The names of nominees don't appear on the ballot — just the film titles. Do most voters know that O'Connell and Russell did "Transformers"? A lot, yes, but most, no. So it looks like they may have to do this without a mercy push.

Lucky for O'Connell and Russell they've got the LOUDEST movie this year, which often decides the winner. That's how simple minded voters can be when judging a sound award. Makes ya wanna SCREAM, right? Well, actually, "Bourne Ultimatum" was fairly loud, too, and it was a classier, better-reviewed movie that got great reviews (85 at Metacritic.com) compared with not-so for "Transformers" (61), but, hey, the latter made more money ($319 million compared to $227 million for "Bourne").

Past LOUD movies to win here include "King Kong," "Star Wars," "Terminator 2," "Jurassic Park," "Saving Private Ryan," "Matrix" and "Black Hawk Down." They all got fairly good reviews except for "Terminator 2" and "Jurassic Park" (buy, hey, the latter won best picture at the People's Choice Awards!).

There's no musical in the race this year. Those often win: "Dreamgirls," "Ray," "Chicago" and, depending on how you weigh it, "Amadeus."

Since "No Country for Old Men" doesn't fit any of those voter biases, you may wonder: why is any pundit betting on it? Well, over the last 27 years, the best-picture champ took this category 10 times: "Amadeus," "Out of Africa," "Platoon," "Last Emperor," "Dances with Wolves," "English Patient," "Titanic," "Gladiator," "Chicago" and "Lord of the Rings."

Only six times has the best-picture winner lost when it was nominated in this category over that same period. One of those times was for Kevin O'Connell's work on "Terms of Endearment," which lost to the sound team from "The Right Stuff" (1983).