Sasha Stone of AwardsDaily.com challenges me on a key Oscar point with some mischievous thoughts you must read. Maybe they are even insights. Perhaps she's even right.

When Reuters reporter Bob Tourtellotte called me the other day for some Oscar noodling over the possibility of upsets Sunday night, I started off this topic with some mischief myself. All of us pundits are leery of "Juno," of course. As everyone says, it's this year's "Little Miss Sunshine" and let's remember how that shone last year. Its star Alan Arkin managed to bump off Golden Globe and SAG champ Eddie Murphy ("Dreamgirls") in the supporting race because it's a movie you can't help but love. Strong affection for a film like "Chariots of Fire" is probably how it managed to pull ahead of "Reds" in the best picture race of 1981.

"Sometimes the Hollywood honchos vote with their heart just to remind us they have one," I told Bob.

"I disagree with Tom on the heart thing," Sasha says. "Sure, maybe sometimes they do — but that assumes they're unable to think while their heart is racing. Or perhaps the blood is going to some other organ at the same time. Gee, I wonder which one? Anyway, it is the vote to be contrary that often gets Oscar into trouble, which is what will happen this year." READ MORE

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