Javier Bardem's coin toss in "No Country for Old Men" is an apt metaphor for his Oscar race. It's win/lose, life/Oscar death for him vs. a single foe — this one Hal Holbrook ("Into the Wild").

Personally, I'm betting on Javier because I buy the theory that the movie that wins best picture usually claims an acting award too. Think Hilary Swank in "Million Dollar Baby," Russell Crowe in "Gladiator." The win can also pop up in supporting like Gene Hackman in "Unforgiven" — even when you don't expect it (Juliette Binoche, "The English Patient"). And, face it, Javier's creepy performance in "No Country" is what makes the movie so nifty. How could voters not reward it?

Well, that could happen if this category returns to form as the Veteran's Achievement Award, as it did last year with Alan Arkin prevailing for "Little Miss Sunshine," and James Coburn ("Affliction") and Martin Landau ("Ed Wood") before him. I've heard from a lot of actual Oscar voters that they're checking off Holbrook, so his chances are real and they are good.