That savvy Oscarologist Pete Hammond knows that the supporting actress slot is the little, unassuming category most prone to stage big Oscar upsets (Marcia Gay Harden, Juliette Binoche, Marisa Tomei). This year he thinks it'll be Tilda Swinton, who just won the supporting-dames laurel at BAFTA yesterday.
In a separate video, Pete and I expose Oscar's deep, dark, dirty secret: Voters don't watch all of the DVD screeners. That probably contributed to "Brokeback Mountain's" upset (such notable academy members as Tony Curtis and past best-actor champ Ernest Borgnine proudly proclaimed that they refused to watch that gay cowboy movie) and others like "Transamerica." How could that phenom affect this year's awards outcome?