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Tilda Swinton will pull off an upset, Pete Hammond says

February 11, 2008 |  5:41 pm

That savvy Oscarologist Pete Hammond knows that the supporting actress slot is the little, unassuming category most Tilda1prone to stage big Oscar upsets (Marcia Gay Harden, Juliette Binoche, Marisa Tomei). This year he thinks it'll be Tilda Swinton, who just won the supporting-dames laurel at BAFTA yesterday.

In a separate video, Pete and I expose Oscar's deep, dark, dirty secret: Voters don't watch all of the DVD screeners. That probably contributed to "Brokeback Mountain's" upset (such notable academy members as Tony Curtis and past best-actor champ Ernest Borgnine proudly proclaimed that they refused to watch that gay cowboy movie) and others like "Transamerica." How could that phenom affect this year's awards outcome?



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Comments

Glad I'm not the only one who thinks Tilda will pull a "Marcia Gay Harden" this year. If not her, then definitely Ruby Dee. As much as I loved GONE BABY GONE (i.e. best film of 2007 imo), can't see Ryan winning. Nor do I see the Academy voters handing Blancett another Oscar so soon; it was only 3 years ago she won for THE AVIATOR.

Well Tilda Swinton is MC's best chance at an Oscar. Don't believe that Best Picture hoopla. The only film that can pull an upset is Juno, neither MC nor TWBB have made enough at the box office. And Atonement lacks the Best Director nomination.

Pete has made some smart surprising choices, so I wouldn't discount his predictions.

But why Tilda? I correctly predicted her for the BAFTAs (she's British), even though I never thought she'd really have a chance for an Oscar upset. Tilda is kind of a Hollywood outsider, even if she is in a film backed by a lot of important and well-respected, well-liked names. Amy Ryan lost the heat, but she won the lion's share of the critics' awards. Blanchett never seems to have gained the buzz within the industry that cinephiles have been feeling. Interesting take on Ruby Dee - her movie *has* been seen, but will that help her or hurt her? Seeing as how the SAG has in the past awarded older actresses who didn't go on to win Oscars (even if less liked than Dee), I'm inclined to throw out the SAG as a fluke. But what else? Has there ever been a year when all four major voting bodies disagreed on a winning acting performance? Can Amy Ryan really mount a comeback to the Oscar podium? It would sure be interesting and perhaps telling if [i]both[/i] Dee and Julie Christie lose.

Damn, though, tough call for Best Actress that he's not making any easier.


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