PREDIX SMACKDOWN: EW chiefs spar over supporting actress race
It is a testament to the respect Entertainment Weekly gives to Dave Karger's prognostication prowess that it permits him to trump the consensus views of his colleagues. The result: the magazine's official Oscar predix in the current issue conflicts with the publication's in-house predix panel that weighs in at its website with, presumably, most current forecasts. (here).
On line four of EW's, four gurus go for Cate Blanchett in supporting (Jill Bernstein, Mark Harris, Sean Smith, Gary Susman) while only two back Tilda Swinton (Thom Geier, Dave Karger). (Click here)
What makes things all the more curiouser and curiouser is that Bernstein and Karger also vote in our Buzzmeter, in which Karger stuck with Swinton, but Bernstein picked Swinton when votes were logged five days ago. Hmmm... (To see our Buzzmeter, CLICK HERE, then click on any link for "Individual Panelist's Rankings.")
And those views certainly don't reflect the percentage odds given in the magazine to the supporting gals: Swinton (28%), Amy Ryan (25%), Cate Blanchett (22%), Ruby Dee (20%) and Saoirse Ronan (5%).
To see EW's predix (from the print edition) in the other Oscar categories, click link below.
Original Screenplay: "Juno"
Adapted Screenplay: "No Country for Old Men"
Art Direction: "Sweeney Todd"
Cinematography: "There Will Be Blood"
Film Editing: "No Country for Old Men"
Music Score: "Atonement"
Song: "Falling Slowly" from "Once"
Documentary Feature: "No End in Sight"
Documentary Short: "Freeheld"
Foreign-Language Film: "The Counterfeiters"
Animated Feature: "Ratatouille"
Animated Short: "I Met the Walrus"
Live Action Short: "Tanghi Argentini"
Costumes: "Sweeney Todd"
Makeup: "La Vie en Rose"
Visual Effects: "Transformers"
Sound Mixing: "Transformers"
Sounding Editing: "Transformers"
More like...
Cate - 26%
Dee - 24%
Ryan - 16%
Tilda - 17%
Ronan - 17%
^^that's the real stats, with Cate in a very small lead, and Dee and her veteraness nipping at the her heels. The other three are probable winners, but not frontrunners, and all have about even footing. I can see Ronan winning because Atonement fans might want to give the film more than a Score win. Tilda has the whole "Michael Clayton has to win something" thing behind her, but why would the AMPAS reward the worst part of the film? Ryan and Virginia Madsen should become pen pals...
Ugh, what an amazing race!!!
Posted by: Starbucks10172 | February 17, 2008 at 08:32 PM
I don't know why Dave Karger has Ronan's chances at 5%. So he's basically saying that Ronan has the same chance of winning Supporting Actress with Blanchett winning Lead (they are both at 5%)...I don't buy that. Ronan has the underdog factor of a performance that people will love and put it at #1.
I think she has more pluses than Ryan, Dee and Blanchett which is why I think it will either go to Ronan or Swinton. Ronan's only negative is that she's 13 (or 14?). But her pluses (Which include working with Michelle Pfeiffer, Brenda Blethlyn, Keira Knightley, Mark Wahlbeg, Catherine Zeta Jones, Rachel Weisz, Susan Surandon and the WHOLE Peter Jackson "gang"--which means at this very moment, she's working on The Lovely Bones with all of Peter Jacksons Lord Of The Rings crew which are all past winners...)
I won't name all the voters that Blanchett has worked with becuase it won't work for her like that.
I just think that people need to give Ronan more credit than she deserves. 5% is too low. I would put it at like 17%.
Posted by: Mike B. | February 17, 2008 at 09:51 AM
Heh. Would be AWESOME if Saoirse Ronan pulls out the improbable win.
Posted by: Ryan | February 17, 2008 at 12:22 AM
No problem Tom!
Posted by: Evan | February 16, 2008 at 12:11 PM
Thanx for clarifying that, Evan.
Posted by: Tom O'Neil | February 16, 2008 at 12:05 PM
The print version has ONLY Dave Karger's predictions, while the online version has Karger and five other pundits. And since Swinton is Karger's online pick as well, that would explain it all. Unless I'm missing something.
Posted by: Evan | February 16, 2008 at 09:18 AM