SubscribeHugh Laurie, Michael C. Hall and Jon Hamm will land in the Emmy Top 10, our experts predict
To forecast the upcoming prime-time Emmys, I've recruited two topnotch journos who cover those kudos regularly (Marc Berman of MediaWeek and Ray Richmond of the Hollywood Reporter) plus our two Emmy-savvy forum moderators (Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L." Licuria). Before 
we take a shot at who we think will be the likely nominees, we must project which contenders will be the top 10 finalists after a popular vote of members of the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences. After those 10 are determined, the final 5 in many top races will be determined by judges weighing sample episodes submitted as examples of the finalists' best work from the past TV season. Below, predix in three categories. More to come.
CHRIS 'BOOMER' BEACHUM on best comedy series: Of last year's top 10, the only show no longer on the air is "Extras." I also think "Scrubs" will not make this year's cut. That opens up two slots, so the return of "Curb Your Enthusiasm" is a guarantee. Newcomer "Pushing Daisies" is a virtual lock for a nomination, based on its critical raves and solid ratings. I believe "Californication" and "Back to You" will just miss making the list.
ROBERT 'ROB L' LICURIA on best comedy series: I think that apart from Jaime Pressly and its freshman writing/directing wins, "My Name Is Earl" has failed to make much traction at the Emmys and it is in real danger of falling off the list. At this stage, I think Showtime will do extraordinarily well in the Comedy Series race and get 2 slots. If the Emmys go for non-HBO cable shows this year more than ever, "Californication" could sneak in. Apart from that, the only other new show that I think is pretty safe as a top 10 contender is "Pushing Daisies." I think the eventual top 5, subject to episode selection (etc.) will mirror last year but for "Curb Your Enthusiasm," which should make its inevitable return.
Michael c Hall's performance in Season 2 of DEXTER was nothing short of brilliant! He is definitely the finest and most versatile actor working in TV today. Hugh Laurie can't compete with him on any level and it will be an absolute disgrace if Hall is ignored again this year!
Posted by: cbrand | May 14, 2008 at 04:10 PM
Thanks to the strike, I've gotten to see Michael Hall in "Dexter." I like the show, and I LOVE the premise. Wish there really were a few Dexters out there. But I just think -- seriously? People equate his performance with Hugh Laurie's? Not just versus Hall, but Laurie's performance is just head & shoulders above any other actor out there. Even if you leave aside (which you shouldn't) all the extra stuff he has to do, the limp, all his physical abilities, the difficult accent -- and he should still win hands down. He has an extraordinary ability to convey so many subtleties of emotion that most actors would kill for.
Posted by: NLP | May 13, 2008 at 04:11 PM
good catch, demon hog. Fixed. TX
Posted by: Tom O'Neil | May 12, 2008 at 08:02 PM
Above, it says that Matthew Fox of Lost was not a top ten finalist last year, when he actually was.
Posted by: thedemonhog | May 12, 2008 at 07:31 PM
I am not saying its a shoo-in, but I think The Wire is going to have a better shot of at least cracking the top 10 this time. It got MAJOR media attention at the end of its time on television with everyone pretty much saying it was the greatest thing on TV ever and it was much more prominent than usual. Many more people started watching it on DVD, and it was so ubiquitous that even if people don't watch it they are probably going to want to give it a chance/be afraid to look dumb by not liking it. I am not saying that it is likely to get nominated and I have no fantasies of it actually winning, but I do think it has a shot of getting into the top 10.
Also, say what you will about how densely plotted and hard to follow it is, but that is more within each season than season to season. In many ways a new season of The Wire is less daunting (so long as you start from the first episode of the season) than picking up a show like Lost 4 seasons in on the end of a cliffhanger episode with constant references to mythology all the way back to the first season. The Wire is much more self-contained within each season. Each season is like picking up a new book in a series of novels. Yes, there are characters and plotlines that extend over both, but you could start The Wire at any season and get a pretty good handle on what is going on. Once the season gets underway there is no hope of starting in the middle, but if HBO gives the first four episodes of The Wire as its submission, they would not have too many problems.
Finally, I just can't see a top 10 Drama list without at least ONE HBO show. I think The Wire has a better chance than Big Love because it was more recent, had much more media coverage, and was essentially declared by critical consensus to be one of the greatest, if not the greatest, television shows of our time. I am not sure that I completely agree with that assessment, but I think it would be foolish to count The Wire out in favor of something like The Closer, The Tudors, or Friday Night Lights (which suffers from the same problems re: getting a nomination as The Wire, except its less popular, not quite as good, and has been off the air since before the writers strike).
Posted by: chasgoose | May 12, 2008 at 02:25 PM