SubscribeJeremy Piven of 'Entourage' leads supporting actor Emmy race — again
For the featured funny men, our Emmy gurus Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria predict four of the five nominees from last year returning to the race –- two-time champ Jeremy Piven ("Entourage") and two-time nominee Jon Cryer ("Two and a Half Men") as well as Neil Patrick Harris ("How I Met Your Mother") and Rainn Wilson ("The Office"). Bumping Piven's "Entourage" co-star Kevin Dillon from the fifth slot will be Wilson's "Office" nemesis John Krasinski.
Our Emmy prophets also foresee finishing out of the running two "30 Rock" supporting players -- Jack McBrayer and Tracy Morgan -- as well as Justin Kirk of "Weeds" and TV vet Fred Willard.
To find the final five nominees, Rob and Boomer follow the actual voting process. First, they predict the order of the semifinalists as determined by the popular vote by the TV academy's actors' branch.
Here's how Boomer thinks the popular vote tallied — 1.) Rainn Wilson 2.) Neil Patrick Harris 3.) Jeremy Piven 4.) John Krasinski 5.) Jon Cryer 6.) Jack McBrayer 7.) Kevin Dillon 8.) Tracy Morgan 9.) Justin Kirk 10.) Fred Willard
How Rob ranks the popular vote outcome — 1.) Jeremy Piven 2.) John Krasinski 3.) Rainn Wilson 4.) Jon Cryer 5.) Neil Patrick Harris 6.) Tracy Morgan 7.) Jack McBrayer 8.) Justin Kirk 9.) Kevin Dillon 10.) Fred Willard
Then they predict how the panel judges scored the sample episode entries.
Here's how Boomer ranks the judges' views of the episodes — 1.) Jeremy Piven 2.) John Krasinski 3.) Neil Patrick Harris 4.) Rainn Wilson 5.) Jon Cryer 6.) Jack McBrayer 7.) Justin Kirk 8.) Tracy Morgan 9.) Kevin Dillon 10.) Fred Willard
How Rob thinks the judges ranked episode entries — 1.) Jeremy Piven 2.) Neil Patrick Harris 3.) Rainn Wilson 4.) John Krasinski 5.) Jon Cryer 6.) Fred Willard 7.) Kevin Dillon 8.) Tracy Morgan 9.) Justin Kirk 10.) Jack McBrayer
They combine these two results on a 50-50 basis, just like the accountants do, to determine the final ranking of the nominees. The lower the score the higher the chance of being nominated.
BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR: BOOMER'S PREDIX
(Top five = nominees)
1.) Jeremy Piven, "Entourage" ("The Day ...") — 4 points
2.) Neil Patrick Harris, "How I Met Your Mother" ("The Goat") — 5 points
2.) Rainn Wilson, "The Office" ("Money") — 5 points
4.) John Krasinski, "The Office" ("Branch Wars") — 6 points
5.) Jon Cryer, "Two & a Half Men" ("Meander to Your Dander") — 10 points
6.) Jack McBrayer, "30 Rock" ("Episode 210") — 12 points
7.) Kevin Dillon, "Entourage" ("The Dream Team") — 16 points
7.) Justin Kirk, "Weeds" ("Bill Sussman") — 16 points
7.) Tracy Morgan, "30 Rock" ("Secrets & Lies") — 16 points
10.) Fred Willard, "Back to You" ("Cradle to Grave") — 20 points
BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR: ROB'S PREDIX
(Top five = nominees)
1.) Jeremy Piven, "Entourage" ("The Day ...") — 2 points
2.) John Krasinski, "The Office" ("Branch Wars") — 6 points
2.) Rainn Wilson, "The Office" ("Money") — 6 points
4.) Neil Patrick Harris, "How I Met Your Mother" ("The Goat") — 7 points
5.) Jon Cryer, "Two & a Half Men" ("Meander to Your Dander") — 9 points
6.) Tracy Morgan, "30 Rock" ("Secrets & Lies") — 14 points
7.) Kevin Dillon, "Entourage" ("The Dream Team") — 16 points
7.) Fred Willard, "Back to You" ("Cradle to Grave") — 16 points
9.) Justin Kirk, "Weeds" ("Bill Sussman") — 17 points
9.) Jack McBrayer, "30 Rock" ("Episode 210") — 17 points
Rob's commentary: The top five seem pretty secure to me, with Piven almost unstoppable on the back of a really excellent episode submission. We should finally see Krasinski make a belated appearance in this category because of his episode submission as well. I wouldn’t count out Morgan and especially Willard, who, while on a little-seen show with almost zero Academy support, his performance will elicit some hearty laughs at the panels. Kirk and McBrayer would have been more formidable candidates had they chosen better episodes.
(Photo: ATAS)
