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Alec Baldwin, Steve Carell, Larry David and Lee Pace will be nommed for best comedy actor

July 16, 2008 |  9:22 am

Just as they did with the drama series lead-acting races, our Emmy prophets and forum moderators — Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) — tackled the comedy contenders too. Hampered by the slight handicap of knowing only eight of the top 10 funnymen, our intrepid pair plugged away and agree on the top two nominees: Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock") and Steve Carrell ("The Office") –- and think newcomer Lee Pace of "Pushing Daisies" is on track for a nod also. Beyond that, the field is rather muddy with a trio of semifinalists tying for third place on Boomer's list and fifth place with Rob.

Lee_pace_pushing_daisies_tony_shalh

However, both agree that "Everybody Loves Raymond" three-time supporting actor winner Brad Garrett is in last place and unlikely to score his first lead nod for "'Til Death." On the bubble are three-time winner Tony Shalhoub ("Monk") and three-time loser Larry David ("Curb Your Enthusiasm") while Charlie Sheen ("Two and a Half Men") and David Duchovny ("Californication") may be out of the running. Well, at least that's what Boomer and Rob say. I disagree. I expect to see Duchovny nominated.

To find the final five nominees, Boomer and Rob follow the actual voting process. First, they predict the order of the semifinalists as determined by the popular vote by the TV academy's actors' branch.

Here's how Boomer thinks the popular vote tallied — 1. Steve Carrell 2. Alec Baldwin 3. Larry David 4. Lee Pace 5. David Duchovny 6. Charlie Sheen 7. Tony Shalhoub 8. Brad Garrett

How Rob ranks the popular vote outcome — 1. Alec Baldwin 2. Steve Carrell 3. Tony Shalhoub 4. Charlie Sheen 5. Lee Pace 6. Larry David 7. David Duchovny 8. Brad Garrett

My opinion: Boomer has Larry David ranked too high and Charlie Sheen too low. Rob has Shalhoub ranked too high and Duchovny too low.

Here's how Boomer ranks the judges' views of the episodes — 1. Alec Baldwin 2. Steve Carrell 3. Charlie Sheen 4. Tony Shalhoub 5. Lee Pace 6. Larry David 7. David Duchovny 8. Brad Garrett

How Rob thinks the judges ranked episode entries — 1. Alec Baldwin 2. Lee Pace 3. Steve Carrell 4. David Duchovny 5. Larry David 6. Tony Shalhoub 7. Charlie Sheen 8. Brad Garrett

My opinion: 1. Alec Baldwin 2. Lee Pace 3. Steve Carell 4. Tony Shalhoub 5. David Duchovny 6. Charlie Sheen 7. Larry David 8. Brad Garrett

They combine these two results on a 50-50 basis, just like the accountants do, to determine the final ranking of the nominees. The lower the score the higher the chance of being nominated.

BEST COMEDY ACTOR: ROB'S PREDIX
(Top five = nominees)
1. Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" ("Rosemary's Baby") — 2 points
2. Steve Carrell, "The Office" ("Goodbye, Toby") — 5 points
3. Lee Pace, "Pushing Daisies" ("Pie-Lette") — 7 points
4. Tony Shalhoub, "Monk" ("Mr. Monk and the Naked Man") — 9 points
5. Larry David, "Curb Your Enthusiasm" ("The Bat Mitzvah") — 11 points
5. David Duchovny, "Californication" ("The Last Waltz") — 11 points
5. Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men" ("Is There a Mrs. Waffles?") — 11 points
8. Brad Garrett, "'Til Death" ("Swimming With Starks") — 16 points

Rob's commentary: This will be another close race. Despite not even knowing who the last two contenders are, I think that these will likely be the nominees, with Duchovny and Sheen close behind, should the tie result in more than five nominees. I have a good feeling about Pace being nominated in what many will see as a bit of a surprise. Maybe we should call this race off anyway, because it’s more of a Baldwin vs. Carrell showdown isn’t it?

BEST COMEDY ACTOR: BOOMER'S PREDIX
(Top five = nominees)
1. Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" ("Rosemary's Baby") — 3 points
1. Steve Carell, "The Office" ("Goodbye, Toby") — 3 points
3. Larry David, "Curb Your Enthusiasm" ("The Bat Mitzvah") — 9 points
3. Lee Pace, "Pushing Daisies" ("Pie-Lette") — 9 points
3. Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men" ("Is There a Mrs. Waffles?") — 9 points
6. Tony Shalhoub, "Monk" ("Mr. Monk and the Naked Man") — 11 points
7. David Duchovny, "Californication" ("The Last Waltz") — 12 points
8. Brad Garrett, "'Til Death" ("Swimming With Starks") — 16 points

Photos credits: ABC, USA Network


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