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And the Emmy nominees for best supporting drama actor will be: William Shatner, Ted Danson, Blair Underwood, Michael Emerson and . . . ?

July 12, 2008 |  2:12 pm

Below is the breakdown of the Emmy slugfest for best supporting drama actor, according to our forum moderators and special Emmy seers Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net — read Hollywood Reporter's profile of Rob).

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Remember: Rob and Boomer mirror the actual voting process when making their predix. First, they calculate the order of the top 11 semifinalists as determined by the popular vote by the TV academy's actors' branch. Then they predict how the panel judges scored the sample episode entries. They combine these two results on a 50-50 basis, just like the accountants do, to determine the final ranking of the nominees.

For example, Rob thinks Ted Danson will come in first in the popular vote and fourth in the scores judging sample episode submissions. Add those numbers together: five. That's excellent. Lowest scores rank highest.

How Rob ranks the popular vote outcome — 1.) Ted Danson  2.) William Shatner  3.) Michael Emerson 4.) John Slattery 5.) Blair Underwood 6.) Zeljko Ivanek 7.) Naveen Andrews 8.) Christian Clemenson 9.) T.R. Knight 10.) Jake Weber 11.) Bruce Dern

Here's how Boomer thinks the pop vote went down — 1.) Ted Danson 2.) William Shatner 3.) T.R. Knight 4.) Michael Emerson 5.) John Slattery  6.) Blair Underwood 7.) Naveen Andrews 8.) Zeljko Ivanek 9.) Christian Clemenson 10.) Bruce Dern 11.) Jake Weber

My opinion:  Rob and Boomer both rank Emerson too high. Rob ranks Knight too low.

How Rob thinks the judges ranked episode entries — 1.) Blair Underwood 2.) Michael Emerson 3.) Zeljko Ivanek 4.) Ted Danson 5.) John Slattery 6.) William Shatner 7.) Naveen Andrews 8.) Christian Clemenson 9.) Jake Weber 10.) T.R. Knight 11.) Bruce Dern

Here's how Boomer ranks the judges' views of the episodes — 1.) Michael Emerson 2.) Blair Underwood 3.) Ted Danson 4.) Zeljko Ivanek 5.) John Slattery 6.) Christian Clemenson 7.) Naveen Andrews 8.) William Shatner 9.) Jake Weber 10.) Knight 11.) Bruce Dern

My opinion:  Rob and Boomer rank Shatner's eppy too low.

Please note: We list the episode titles viewed by judges.

BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTOR: ROB'S PREDIX
(Top 5 = nominees)
1.) Ted Danson, "Damages" ("Jesus, Mary & Joe Cocker") — 5 points
1.) Michael Emerson, "Lost" ("The Shape of Things to Come") — 5 points
3.)  Blair Underwood, "In Treatment" ("Alex: Week 6") — 6 points
4.)  William Shatner, "Boston Legal" ("Mad About You") — 8 points
5.)  John Slattery, "Mad Men" ("Long Weekend") — 9 points
5.)  Zeljko Ivanek, "Damages" ("I Hate These People") — 9 points
7.)  Naveen Andrews, "Lost" ("The Economist") — 14 points
8.)  Christian Clemenson, "Boston Legal" ("Roe vs. Wade, The Musical") — 16 points
=9.) T.R. Knight, "Grey's Anatomy" ("Freedom") — 19 points
=9.) Jake Weber, "Medium" ("Wicked Game, Part 1") — 19 points
11.)  Bruce Dern, "Big Love" ("Good Guys & Bad Guys") — 22 points

BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTOR: BOOMER'S PREDIX
(Top 5 = nominees)
1.)  Ted Danson, "Damages" ("Jesus, Mary & Joe Cocker") — 4 points
2.)  Michael Emerson, "Lost" ("The Shape of Things to Come") — 5 points
3.)  Blair Underwood, "In Treatment" ("Alex: Week 6") — 8 points
4.)  William Shatner, "Boston Legal" ("Mad About You") — 10 points
5.)  John Slattery, "Mad Men" ("Long Weekend") — 10 points
6.)  Zeljko Ivanek, "Damages" ("I Hate These People") — 12 points
7.)  T.R. Knight, "Grey's Anatomy" ("Freedom") — 13 points
8.)  Naveen Andrews, "Lost" ("The Economist") — 14 points
9.)  Christian Clemenson, "Boston Legal" ("Roe vs. Wade, The Musical") — 15 points
10.)  Jake Weber, "Medium" ("Wicked Game, Part 1") — 19 points
11.)  Bruce Dern, "Big Love" ("Good Guys & Bad Guys") — 21 points

Rob's commentary: I am usually loath to "predict" 6 nominees (even though many a time we end up with 6 nominees), but by my scoring, I came up with a tie for fifth place, and this category often sees ties, so who knows. Danson will get in on the strength of a strong popular vote. Although his performance in his chosen episode is quite good, it will not have blown the socks off the panel voters, so stronger episode submissions like those of Underwood, Emerson and Ivanek will see them through. Slattery is a probable contender, as is the perennial favorite Shatner. Perhaps only Naveen Andrews might sneak in if the panel voters loved his episode more than I am giving them credit for above.

(Photos: ABC, FX, HBO, AMC)

 


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