That's the big drama looming over TV's top award this weekend as Sunday's Emmycast looms.

Remember, this year AMC's "Mad Men" and FX's "Damages" became the first basic cable shows ever nominated for best series and, if one of them wins — which is not only possible, but predicted by the overwhelming number of our top Emmy gurus (CLICK HERE) — the victory will trigger a seismic quake in Hollywood's TV industry. A win as best drama by Showtime's "Dexter" would be earth-shattering too, since it joins "Mad Men" and "Damages" as the first non-HBO cable shows to reap a top series bid.

The Emmy has always been a broadcast-network-biased award. The TV academy represents the industry's establishment, which has been reluctant to acknowledge the boom in cable TV creativity appreciated by millions of tube viewers. Cable TV wasn't even permitted to compete at the Emmys till 1987, which necessitated the creation of the Cable ACE Awards in 1979. (They eventually folded in 1998.) But only HBO has prospered at the Emmys since then, which is largely due to the millions of dollars it spends, shrewdly, to woo voters. That's a good thing — it's encouraged other cable channels to get aggressive about campaigning too. But even so, only three times have HBO shows won best comedy or drama series: "Sex and the City" (2001) and "The Sopranos" (2004, 2007). The first time any cable show was nominated in one of those categories was 1993 ("The Larry Sanders Show").

To help illustrate this behind-the-tinsel drama for you, I've compiled this time line on how cable has fared. Read through it and you'll understand how high the stakes are on Sunday night.

1965 — Charles Dolan launches cable TV delivered via underground wire in Manhattan because the skyscrapers block regular TV waves. By 1972, it evolves into HBO with Time Warner as partner. Showtime is launched in 1976, CNN and Cinemax in 1980, MTV in 1981.

1979 — Cable ACE Awards launch after Emmys continue to refuse to recognize cable programming.

1985 — TV academy Board of Governors votes to permit cable TV shows to compete in the future, but not until 1987.

1986 — Fox Network launched.

1987 — Fox Network pays $4.5 million for a three-year deal to telecast the Emmys, seizing the rights away from ABC, CBS and NBC, which had been airing the awards ceremony on a rotating "wheel deal," paying the TV academy $875,000 per year in a license fee. While Fox is a broadcast network like the others, its emergence is a serious challenge to the entrenched TV establishment.

1987-88 — Cable TV's first year of Emmy eligibility. Cable receives 15 out of 337 nominations and ends up with two awards, both for HBO's "Dear America: Letters Home from Vietnam," which is voted best informational special.

1989 — Cable wins only four lowly awards. First big Emmy wins for Fox network ("The Tracey Ullman Show").

1990 — Cable wins 10 Emmys — 8 for HBO, including first top award for acting: Hume Cronyn, "Age Old Friends" (best actor in a miniseries, movie or special). Costar Vincent Gardenia wins supporting actor.

1990-1991 — Cable scores 40 of the year's 328 nominations, including 12 for HBO's "The Josephine Baker Story," which wins five, including best actress for Lynn Whitfield. It loses best miniseries/movie to NBC's "Separate But Equal." Two other cable wins are reaped (for a total of seven), including best supporting actor in a mini/movie for James Earl Jones in TNT's "Heat Wave." Disney Channel wins best music direction.

1992 — Disney Channel becomes the first pay cable network other than HBO (today Disney is a free basic-cable channel) to win a top Emmy: best drama series actor (Christopher Lloyd, "Road to Avonlea"). Disney Channel also wins best children's program ("Mark Twain and Me"). HBO also wins best variety special ("Cirque du Soleil II: A New Experience"). TNT wins best informational special ("MGM: When the Lion Roared").

1993 — HBO's "The Larry Sanders Show" becomes the first cable show ever nominated for best series (comedy), scoring eight nominations and losing them all. HBO ties ABC for 55 nominations. HBO wins 17, the most of any network (NBC comes in second place with 16), including best movie/mini (tie between HBO's "Stalin" and "Barbarians at the Gate") and actress (Holly Hunter, "The Positively True Adventures of the Alleged Texas Cheerleader-Murdering Mom"). All cable networks reap 76 bids — 21% of total. Lifetime scores first win (Mary Tyler Moore, best supporting actress in a movie/mini, "Stolen Babies"). After spending six years on the Fox network, the Emmys return to another broadcast channel (ABC).

1994 — All cable networks reap 63 noms — 18% of total. HBO drops to 34 noms, but wins best TV movie/mini ("And the Band Played On").

1995 — Cable shows win a record 20 Emmys. TNT's "Joseph" wins best mini. HBO continues its dominance of the award for best movie ("Indictment: The McMartin Trial"), which will continue in the future.

1996 — Cable programs claim 125 nominations (one third of total). Win 26.

1997 — HBO takes second-highest tally of noms (90) behind NBC (92). Cable shows win 28 Emmys compared to 51 for broadcast networks.