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Will Mariah Carey or Rihanna win the MTV VMA for best female video?

September 2, 2008 |  7:19 pm

Our two music kudos gurus are split over who'll win best female video at the MTV Video Music Awards on Sunday night. David "Guru" Schnelwar ranks Mariah Carey in top place. Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch ranks Mariah Carey last, opting instead of Rihanna as likely champ. David has Rihanna in second place.

1) Rihanna, "Take a Bow"
2) Britney Spears, "Piece of Me"
3) Katy Perry, "I Kissed a Girl"
4) Jordin Sparks, "No Air"
5) Mariah Carey, "Touch My Body"



You can immediately eliminate Mariah. Her buzz has faded and her follow-up singles have underperformed on the charts; she won't win. "American Idol" alums don't have a great track record at the VMAs, and Jordin Sparks' momentum didn't continue after the massive success of "No Air," so I think she's out, too.

Katy Perry is a dark horse. "I Kissed a Girl" is the No. 1 song of the summer; it spent seven consecutive weeks on top of the Hot 100 chart and is still in the Top 5. If Perry's follow-up single catches heat during voting, then I think she will win. If not, voters will reward Rihanna for her massive year. She's on her third No. 1 single from her album.

Britney could get this for sentimental value, but VMA voters have no problem splitting up their top prizes. Last year Rihanna won video of the year while Fergie nabbed this category.

1) Mariah Carey, "Touch My Body"
2) Rihanna, "Take a Bow"
3) Britney Spears, "Piece of Me"
4) Katy Perry, "I Kissed a Girl"
5) Jordin Sparks, "No Air"

This is a tight race. Mariah Carey and Britney Spears have never won a VMA.  Both artists are overdue. I think Mariah Carey is the front-runner.  Comical music videos usually win. Unless MTV decides to award Britney to make up for her career-suicide performance last year just for the headlines.

Rihanna had the most music videos released this year.  She may upset.  Fergie had the most music videos released last year and won this category last year.

I think Katy Perry is more likely to win best new artist in a video instead of this. I don't see Jordin Sparks winning.

Photos: (Island/Def Jam)