The Envelope's first Oscars predictions of the 2008 derby
The Envelope's Buzzmeter is currently being overhauled and redesigned, so let's start featuring Oscars predictions here at Gold Derby.
Below we pooled the views of seven pundits: Anthony Breznican (USA Today), Edward Douglas (Comingsoon.net), Scott Feinberg (AndTheWinnerIs, The Feinberg Files at The Envelope), Pete Hammond (The Envelope), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby, The Envelope), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com).
The result: proof of how wide open the top races are. There is no consensus over a single nomination except a best actor nom for Mickey Rourke in "The Wrestler." The biggest majorities in the best picture race: six of our seven Oscar seers pick "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," five opt for "Frost/Nixon" and "Revolutionary Road." Only two chaps pooled six pundits in the best actor slugfest: Sean Penn ("Milk") and Frank Langella ("Frost/Nixon").
Only two gals get six votes for best actress: Kate Winslet ("Revolutionary Road") and Angelina Jolie ("Changeling"). Five contenders muster only a single vote: Kate Beckinsale ("Nothing but the Truth"), Cate Blanchett ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"), Sally Hawkins ("Happy-Go-Lucky"), Keira Knightley ("The Duchess") and Melissa Leo ("Frozen River"). In the best actor derby, there's only single-vote support, surprisingly, for Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Doubt"), Benicio del Toro ("Che"), Josh Brolin ("W.") and Robert Downey Jr. ("The Soloist").
| BEST PICTURE | Anthony Breznican | Edward Douglas | Scott Feinberg | Pete Hammond | Dave Karger | Tom O'Neil | Jeffrey Wells |
| 'Australia' | X | X | |||||
| 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button' | X | X | X | X | X | X | |
| 'Changeling' | X | X | |||||
| 'Dark Knight' | X | X | |||||
| 'Doubt' | X | X | X | ||||
| 'Frost/Nixon' | X | X | X | X | X | ||
| 'Gran Torino' | X | ||||||
| 'Milk' | X | X | X | X | |||
| 'Revolutionary Road' | X | X | X | X | X | ||
| 'Slumdog Millionaire' | X | X | |||||
| 'W.' | X | ||||||
| 'The Wrestler' | X | X |
| BEST ACTOR | Anthony Breznican | Edward Douglas | Scott Feinberg | Pete Hammond | Dave Karger | Tom O'Neil | Jeffrey Wells |
| Josh Brolin, 'W.' | X | ||||||
| Benicio del Toro, 'Che' | X | ||||||
| Leo DiCaprio, 'Revolutionary Road' | X | X | X | X | |||
| Robert Downey Jr., 'The Soloist' | X | ||||||
| Philip Seymour Hoffman, 'Doubt' | X | ||||||
| Richard Jenkins, 'The Visitor' | X | X | X | X | |||
| Frank Langella, 'Frost/Nixon' | X | X | X | X | X | X | |
| Sean Penn, 'Milk' | X | X | X | X | X | X | |
| Brad Pitt, 'Benjamin Button' | X | X | X | X | |||
| Mickey Rourke, 'The Wrestler' | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| BEST ACTRESS | Anthony Breznican | Edward Douglas | Scott Feinberg | Pete Hammond | Dave Karger | Tom O'Neil | Jeffrey Wells |
| Kate Beckinsale, 'Nothing but the Truth' | X | ||||||
| Cate Blanchett, 'Benjamin Button' | X | ||||||
| Anne Hathaway, 'Rachel Getting Married' | X | X | X | X | X | ||
| Sally Hawkins, 'Happy-Go-Lucky' | X | ||||||
| Angelina Jolie, 'Changeling' | X | X | X | X | X | X | |
| Nicole Kidman, 'Australia' | X | X | |||||
| Keira Knightley, 'The Duchess' | X | ||||||
| Melissa Leo, 'Frozen River' | X | ||||||
| Meryl Streep, 'Doubt' | X | X | X | X | X | ||
| Kristin Scott Thomas, 'I've Loved You So Long' | X | X | X | X | X | ||
| Kate Winslet, 'Revolutionary Road' | X | X | X | X | X | X |
Do you really want this to be Meryl Streep's legacy?
These countless nominations and no wins is beginning to be an embarrassment to the entire process.
It's been nearly 30 years and she has had to sit there 12 times and see the Oscar given to someone else when in fact she has turned in several Oscar worthy performances. I hope they don't make this #13.
I saw Doubt and her performance was brilliant. It is a memorable script. Cherry Jones got her Tony and rightfully so. Meryl Streep deserves an Oscar for that role. She put in the work in all the complexity of the character she played.
Posted by: Roxanne | January 29, 2009 at 05:59 AM
Jamie Foxx will get nominated for The Soloist in Best Actor - it's such an obvious Oscar bid. Plus, the Academy has a tendency to recognize solid African-American performances even in competitive years (how else to do you explain Will Smith's nod for Pursuit of Happyness?). I also doubt that Benjamin Button will be a serious contender. The Academy does not "get" David Fincher & has not even rewarded ONE of his films with a SINGLE nomination.
Posted by: SetPhysician | October 05, 2008 at 10:46 PM
You couldn't find one, single woman to ask for an opinion??!! This is totally bogus and not even worth looking at. The L.A. Times and Hollywood need to get up to speed. Hello? The twenty first century. Heard of it?
Posted by: Maggie | October 02, 2008 at 10:58 AM
In totally disregarding a female perspective you're reiterating Hollywood's modus operandi of disregarding women.
How's about being a part of change for the positive by encouraging more involvement of women in film instead of reinforcing Hollywood's outdated, unfair and oppressive ways?
Posted by: Lou | October 02, 2008 at 03:41 AM
Did I only see 2 Xs for 'Dark Knight'? It got great reviews from critics. The grade it got was an A. Why were there only two Xs. My Opinion, 'Dark Knight' will slip in for as best picture nominee. Also looking forward to 'Benjamin Button'.
Posted by: Austin | October 02, 2008 at 01:26 AM
Excuse me,
why weren't any women consulted?
Are women allowed to vote in the actual Oscars? Are they members of the Academy? Are they 51% of the population?
Have they proven that women like to see female characters in film with, well, (developed) Character ?
Why didn't you ask any women their opinion?
Please answer while looking in a mirror . Please ask yourself if you are a part of the change you want to see in the world.
signed,
tired !!!!!
of sexism in the film industry!!!!
Posted by: T | October 01, 2008 at 04:01 PM
GOT MILK? Hope so. It's my early pick along with Doubt. Frost/Nixon and Rev Road will get acting nods. Roarke will make a drunken fool of himself over the course of awards season and not even get a nod.
Posted by: TorontoTom | October 01, 2008 at 11:42 AM
doobiedoo, personally I think the 10 bad performances Meryl Streep gave this year will probably dissuade Academy voters from her one potentially good one but frankly I think the time of Meryl getting a nomination every year is gone... there are just too many other strong performances this year.
SD, I believe that the panelists including myself believe that Heath Ledger would be nominated in the supporting category... it's a supporting role. He's not in every scene of the movie and is probably only in about 15 minutes of the first hour of the movie.
Posted by: Edward Douglas | October 01, 2008 at 04:18 AM
How is it possible in 2008 that you could put a group like this together and not include a single woman's opinions.
Shameful.
Posted by: Melissa Silverstein | September 30, 2008 at 05:21 PM
I thought Keira Knightley was excellent as The Duchess. The fact that she is the youngest person on that list in contention speaks volumes about her talent. Maybe she won't get nominated this year, but she sure as hell has proven that she is a very good actress, as she already has a nod behind her and continues to create buzz. So you can laugh all you want, but nobody cares anyways.
Posted by: Amanda | September 30, 2008 at 03:02 PM
Who was Breznican's fifth actress projection? Streep? Even if Doubt is a bust, Streep has a shot at a nom for Mamma Mia...
Posted by: JBH | September 30, 2008 at 09:47 AM
Keira Knightley as Best Actress for THE DUCHESS? Hahahahaha.
Oh Pete Hammond, how you make me laugh.
Posted by: doobiedoo | September 29, 2008 at 08:13 PM
I "doubt" that Anthony Breznican and Edward Douglas were correct in leaving off Meryl Streep. (To SD, Heath Ledger is more likely in Supporting Actor.)
Posted by: dude | September 29, 2008 at 06:15 PM
^Because he's a supporting actor
Posted by: Ruff ruff | September 29, 2008 at 06:02 PM
heath ledger was a supporting actor and for sure he will be part of that category
Posted by: alberto | September 29, 2008 at 05:57 PM
Never understood how this worked behind closed doors. Seems almost too easy to be influenced by money.
Posted by: charles | September 29, 2008 at 03:43 PM
As our economy freefalls, I suppose it is comforting to see that these folks are gainfully employed predicting trade awards for films that have not been released or (in some cases) seen by them! Good work if you can get it....
Posted by: Mike M | September 29, 2008 at 03:11 PM
Just a quick question, I am a great fan of the Gold Derby and check on it everyday, but, when it comes to polls like this, I must admit I'm a bit confused. I know some of these films have already screened at the fests, but what about the ones, such as Australia and Revolutionary Road, that haven't? Do these critics have inside information? Have they seen rough cuts? Or are they making their best educated guesses?
Posted by: David | September 29, 2008 at 02:02 PM
Why isn't Heath Ledger on this list???
Posted by: SD | September 29, 2008 at 01:32 PM