The first thing I thought upon viewing the new trailer to the much-buzzed-about "The Reader" was: uh-oh, Kate Winslet's performance is not supporting, which is its official Oscar campaign classification.

Obviously, it's a lead role and one that poses a serious threat to her other lead role this derby season — the one she prefers in "Revolutionary Road," probably because her hubby Sam Mendes directed the flick. There's so much Oscar bait in "The Reader" that Kate could hook a whole school of academy fish. It's a Holocaust pic. She has an accent. We see her age over many decades. She sacrifices her beauty to show us how she's ravaged by tragedy. Compare all that to what we see of her in "Road" — nothing truly revolutionary. Looks a lot like the usual Kate, which is always good, but, hey, we're talking Oscars here.

Poor Kate Winslet — a five-time loser so far — can't do anything about this possible Oscars mess without insulting her husband, of course. However, if it turns out that she really is more Oscary in "Reader" — and that's a big if — then academy members can easily ignore her campaigns and put either role in any category they wish. That's what happened to Keisha Castle-Hughes, who campaigned in supporting for "Whale Rider" in 2002, but was placed in lead by voters.

(Weinstein Co., Paramount Vantage)

United Artists insists that Tom Cruise's next flick "Valkyrie" is not an Oscar contender. Studio execs claim it's just a great, old-fashioned popcorn thriller that just so happens to showcase an Oscar-overdue superstar in a film opening up at peak Oscar time: Dec. 26. That's the same day that top derby contender "Revolutionary Road" debuts and, curiously, one day after another lead pony, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," hits the track running.

Do we believe UA? Should we write off "Valkyrie"? Or are the studio chiefs just downplaying Oscar expectations to dodge humiliation if the controversial Cruise gets snubbed? No such Oscar pooh-poohing went on early this year when "Valkyrie" was still scheduled to debut in theaters at the start of Oscar season — Oct. 3. However, when the trailer came out in summer and some bully bloggers mocked Tom Cruise for using a Yankee accent to portray a Nazi, "Valkyrie" suddenly got pushed out of the derby entirely. Its release date got bumped to next February.

But then later, quietly, it got moved back onto the 2008 calendar and we Oscarologists must now wonder: Should we watch that sneaky Nazi flick closely? "Valkyrie" has a lot of Oscar-friendly elements and, if it's as good as its early buzz (which is strong), it could take us by surprise and break out as a major contender if Hollywood suddenly decides that this is the moment to forgive Cruise for all past craziness. In recent months, he has been handling his PR rehabilitation admirably.

At 46, Tom Cruise is at a crossroads career-wise. His action movies are not the guaranteed hits they once were and his last serious film, "Lions for Lambs," was slaughtered by critics. However, after three losing Oscar bids ("Born on the Fourth of July," "Jerry Maguire," and "Magnolia"), some may consider Cruise overdue to win. His latest role certainly ticks a lot of boxes on the acting checklist.

Tom Cruise plays a true-life WW II hero, as did past acting champs Adrien Brody ("The Pianist") and William Holden ("Stalag 17"). This hero has a physical handicap (covered by that eye patch) just like past winners Al Pacino ("Scent of a Woman") and Daniel Day-Lewis ("My Left Foot"). However, just as his "Lambs" co-star Robert Redford chose not to attempt an accent while portraying an Englishman in "Out of Africa," Cruise chooses not to sound too German as an officer plotting to kill Hitler. His other "Lambs" co-star, Meryl Streep, could have reminded Cruise that, if a foreign accent is successfully employed, it can boost a star's odds to be nominated, but he didn't want to chance it. Perhaps wisely. As a payoff for pulling off a Danish lilt in "Out of Africa," Streep received one of the 11 nominations reaped by the eventual best picture champ of 1985. However, costar Robert Redford got skunked.

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"Lawrence of Arabia" won seven Academy Awards in 1962, including best picture and director (David Lean). Did it really deserve to beat "The Longest Day," "The Music Man," "Mutiny on the Bounty" and "To Kill a Mockingbird" for the top prize?

It got some socko reviews back then. Variety called the $15-million production "a king-size adventure yarn." But those were the days when most film-goers confused best picture with big picture, especially Oscar voters. Bosley Crowther of the New York Times insisted that an intimate little film, "A Taste of Honey," was really the best film of 1962 and he dismissed "Lawrence of Arabia" as "a lot of sand and fury signifying little or nothing about Lawrence."

Was Crowther right? Well, indeed, the movie reveals little about who Lawrence really was, but that was standard operating procedure for sugar-coated Hollywood bios back then. Furthermore, much of what was on the wide screen was fictional (the attack on Aqaba) or inaccurate (mass desertions by his Arab soldiers). Does that matter?

Crowther thought so and continued to blast away at it: "'Lawrence of Arabia' is, in the last analysis, just a huge, thundering camel-opera that tends to run down rather badly as it rolls on into its third hour and gets involved with sullen disillusion and political deceit." Crowther wasn't alone. Also among its haters was Andrew Sarris, the then-Village Voice scribe who's venerated today as a god among film critics.

Nonetheless, "Lawrence of Arabia" reigns in the top 10 of greatest movies ever made as listed by the American Film Institute (ranked No. 5 in 1997 and No. 7 in 2007).

(Columbia Pictures)

• Dave Karger is reporting that Ralph Fiennes is dropping down to the supporting actor race for "The Reader" as he shares the role with newcomer David Kross. This means Oscars voters will have to choose between this upcoming performance by Fiennes as a man who discovers his former lover (Kate Winslet) was a Nazi and his recent acclaimed turn as the hard-hearted husband of Keira Knightley in the costume biopic "The Duchess." As Karger writes, "With his costar Kate Winslet currently set to be campaigned as Best Supporting Actress for the film, the movie now has no lead-acting contenders at all. The Academy usually lets that fly for an ensemble film like 'Babel' or 'Crash'; will they accept it for a three-hander like 'The Reader'?"Entertainment Weekly

• In the fourth of a weekly series of "Oscar Futures," those wags at New York mag's Vulture blog have the newly screened "Milk" up in the best picture race with "Gran Torino" down and out of the final five as "Wall-E" makes an appearance alongside perennial picks "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," "Revolutionary Road," and "Slumdog Millionaire. " While "Milk" star Sean Penn is up in the best actor race, supporting player Josh Brolin is bounced in favor of James Franco. And though Michael Sheen plays one of the two title characters in "Frost/Nixon, " he is urged to drop down to supporting. New York Vulture

• Anthony Breznican recaps the upcoming Oscar contenders with release dates, plot summaries, awards appeal and quotes from the filmmakers. Due out next is "Slumdog Millionaire" on Nov. 12 which he says, "could fill the perennial underdog slot in the best-picture race. Reviews have been great, and academy voters like scrappy movies with big heart. " And as per director Danny Boyle on the main character: "He's got nothing going for him really, other than his determination and his dream. People will be rooting for him. " USA Today

• Talk about scary! The ladies of "The View" dress up as five former presidents for the Halloween edition of the daytime dishfest. Their political bickering has turned this talker into must-see TV and today should be no different with Whoopi Goldberg as FDR, Joy Behar as Teddy Roosevelt, Sherri Shepherd as Abraham Lincoln, Elisabeth Hasselbeck as Ronald Reagan, and Barbara Walters as George Washington. Could this be the sample episode that finally wins them that Emmy for hosting after 11 consecutive losses? Remember, all contenders submit just one example of their best work from the past TV season to Emmy judges. E Online

• Emmy winner Michael Imperioli ("The Sopranos") talks about returning to series TV in "Life on Mars" with this change of pace role as a good guy (of sorts). As he explains his character in this time-shifting drama set in 1973, "P.C. has not even been a blip on the radar screen yet. To be a big-city detective is a very cool thing." New York Times

• Matt Mitovich proposes a plan to keep the suddenly red-hot "Saturday Night Live" on the front burner following next week's election. Among his suggestions, have Tina Fey as her "30 Rock" character botching an imitation of VP hopeful Governor Sarah Palin. Could that triple Emmy champ's continued appearances bring this late night staple its first win as best variety series since 1993? TV Guide

• The last time Oscar nominee Mary McDonnell guested on a medical drama, she picked up an Emmy nod for playing Noah Wyle's mean mama on "ER" in 2002. Now, as Michael Ausiello discovers in this revealing interview, she is checking into "Grey's Anatomy" on Nov. 13 for a three-episode arc as "a very dignified real human being with a disability that can be very problematic for everyone." Entertainment Weekly

• The list of performers and presenters at the upcoming ninth annual Latin Grammys, continues to grow as we near the Nov. 13 kudocast airing live on Univision. Among the new names announced appearing at Houston's Toyota Center are Bando el Recodo and Los Tigres del Norte. Houston Chronicle

• Tony-nominated set designer David Rockwell ("Hairspray") will be handling the stagecraft for the Oscars this coming February. While this is his first time working on the kudocast, his firm designed the awards new home at the Kodak Theatre. AMPAS

• Last week, the first rialto revival of David Mamet's "Speed-the-Plow" opened to rave reviews. Tonight marks the first preview performance of the second revival of his breakthrough 1976 play "American Buffalo" with Tony nominee John Leguziamo joined by Broadway newcomers Cedric the Entertainer and Oscar nominee Haley Joel Osment ("The Sixth Sense") as three would-be thieves. Playbill

• Hong Kong helmer Peter Chan's historic epic "The Warlords" leads with 12 nominations " including film, director and actor Jet Li for Taiwan's Golden Horse Film awards. While the box office hit "Cape No. 7" nabbed nine noms, John Woo's $80 million "Red Cliff" managed only four nods. The 45th edition of this awardsfest will be held December 6 in Taichung with winners being decided by a jury. Variety has the full list of contenders.

While up at the Toronto Film Festival last month, Sally Hawkins and I had a cheery-go-snappy chat about her new film, which was quite a wild ride — literally — during production, often calling for her to zip through narrow, crowded London streets at reckless speeds in a tiny car with a lunatic inside. Oh, yeah, and Sally also tattles to Gold Derby on the wild ride she's having in the best-actress race this award season. Catch a ride by clicking the play button below.

The winner of best reality program at the Emmys for the past two years brought her statuettes along when she appeared on Craig Ferguson's show Monday night.

"I can tell you think it's tacky that I brought them," Kathy Griffin said, but she said she doesn't care, confessing that she carts them around everywhere. "I even take them to the In and Out Burger."

There's a lot of other talk about Emmys in this clip as Kathy spills beans about hanging out with Don Rickles at the awardsfest — and, of course, she disses her nemesis Ryan Seacrest in the aftermath of the bad reviews he and his four fellow reality TV hosts got for co-hosting.

If it strikes you as weird that there's a lot of odd talk of lesbians in this clip, you should know that it's a continuation of what happened on the show before the start of this clip — when Craig has fun riffing with a lesbian in the audience.

(CBS)

Villainous performances have been sweeping the Oscars lately (three took four of the acting slots last year: Daniel Day-Louis, Javier Bardem, Tilda Swinton). But they used to triumph only rarely. In 1990, Kathy Bates' victory as best actress was a shockeroo, hitting  Oscarwatchers like, well, a sledgehammer. She beat Anjelica Houston ("The Grifters"), Joanne Woodward ("Mr. and Mrs. Bridge"), Meryl Streep ("Postcards from the Edge") and Julia Roberts ("Pretty Woman"). Who might have claimed that gold if she hadn't turned down the role? To see the answer, CLICK HERE!

• Brad Brevet has assembled an impressive list of the various "For Your Consideration" websites set up by the studios. Among the goodies on offer are the scripts for contenders like "Changeling" and "Vicky Cristina Barcelona." Rope of Silicon

• Pete Hammond delivers a top-notch report from the Hollywood Film Festival that is full of fascinating insight into the workings of early awardsfests such as this one. As usual, he has snagged must-read interviews with the likes of "The Dark Knight" helmer Christopher Nolan and "Doubt" writer-director John Patrick Shanley as well as fest founder Carlos De Abreu. Notes on a Season

• The first trailer for Oscar hopeful "Slumdug Millionaire" trailer unspools at Yahoo Movies. Very curious: This teaser focuses on the romantic undercurrent of the picture rather than its shocking glimpses of violence and poverty in India's terrifying slums.

• Scott Feinberg offers his analysis of the awards prospects of the just-unspooled "Milk," praising the performance of Sean Penn as one "that's so alive that one could be forgiven for forgetting that the real Milk has been dead for 30 years" and predicting Penn is the one to beat for the best-actor Oscar. The Feinberg Files

• Dave Karger reminds us that while this might be the year of the Kate (phonetically speaking) at the Oscars, with Beckinsale and Winslet along with Cate Blanchett in contention, there has already been one occasion where three similarly named actresses competed in the same category. Can you name them? Entertainment Weekly

• Gerard Kennedy continues his crackerjack job of analyzing such behind-the-camera Oscar categories as sound editing and art direction, which often get short shrift when we concentrate on the big eight awards. In Contention

• Patrick Goldstein urges the powers that be at the academy to lighten up and begin categories honoring comedy films and performances. Cited is the example of Paul Rudd in the forthcoming "Role Models." The Big Picture

• Awards Daily offers a cheeky comparison of two upcoming Ron Howard films — this fall's "Frost/Nixon" and next spring's "Angels & Demons."

(Warner Bros., Yari Film Group, Paramount)

-- The first screening of "Revolutionary Road" generates a thumbs-up review from Variety's Anne Thompson, who shares the e-mail she received as spy report at her blog Thompson on Hollywood: " wow! very powerful two-hander for Leo and Kate . . . It's powerful and also beautifully written and filmed. Sam Mendes doing suburban angst again, but this time in the 1950s. I daresay it may be a modern classic. also, the screenplay race this year is unusually light on adaptations, so this being an adaptation of the Richard Yates novel, I'd look for a nomination."

-- Heath Ledger is among those competing for an international award while "The Black Balloon" and "Unfinished Sky" lead noms at Australian film kudos.  Sydney Morning Herald

-- He'll never win an Oscar now. Furthermore, past nominee Joaquin Phoenix ("Walk the Line") may have just as hard a time winning a Grammy.  New York Vulture

-- George Lucas is set to be feted at 13th annual Art Directors Guild award fest on Valentine's Day. Variety

-- Tony Awards committee membership is announced for management (oversee kudo cast) and administration (determine eligibility). Playbill

-- Lauren Graham ("Gilmore Girls") to make her Broadway debut in an upcoming "Guys and Dolls" revival. TV Guide

--'W.' screenwriter Stanley Weiser tells RopeOfSilicon: "What I was trying to get across in the movie is a story of a guy who is an abject failure, tries to redeem himself . . . and yet he is hapless and clueless as a leader."

-- Simon Cowell gets special kudos, "Doctor Who" makes it four in a row and TV presenters Ant & Dec are British viewers' choice for eighth consecutive year at the National Television Awards. BBC News

-- Russell Brand, this year's MTV VMA host, is yanked off BBC Radio for a lewd prank phone call to "Fawlty Towers" star Andrew Sachs (Manuel). Daily Mail

-- "Mamma Mia!" edges out "Harry Potter" for the No. 2 spot on the all-time British box office chart and is only 2 million pounds behind "Titanic." Daily Telegraph

In her podcast chat with Gold Derby, Rosemarie DeWitt reveals that, while filming "Rachel Getting Married," there were takes of scenes "where I felt like Al Pacino in 'Serpico' — I was screaming at (Anne Hathaway) and I was spitting in her face." Some of those scenes were actually written to be played mellow, but director Jonathan Demme urged the cast to take wild creative chances.

When shooting another scene, for example, "that was written with a lot of capital letters and exclamation marks, (Jonathan) said, 'Don't yell. Be quiet and see what happens,'" she adds. "It was that kind of freedom" that helped the film succeed, resulting in socko critics' reviews and major Oscars buzz.

Rosemarie DeWitt is on quite a kudos role lately. After she appeared in six episodes of "Mad Men," it became the first basic-cable show to win best series at the Emmys. Over the past week she reaped a nomination as breakthrough actor of the year at the Gotham Awards for her screen turn in "Rachel Getting Married." Now she's shooting Showtime's hot new TV series "United States of Tara," created by Steven Spielberg and "Juno" scribe Diablo Cody.

CLICK HERE to download the MP3 audio file and listen to our chat about all of these ventures. (Note: You may have to hold down your computer's control key while clicking.)

(Sony Pictures Classics)