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Dueling Grammy predix: Record of the Year

November 30, 2008 |  8:14 pm

LATimes.com readers have already seen what our Pop & Hiss blog says will nab bids for record of the year when Grammy nominations are announced this Wednesday, Dec. 3. To make things interesting, I requested challenging views from two of The Envelope's experts — our forum moderators David "Guru" Schnelwar and Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch.

Of the five songs cited by the Pop & Hiss blogger Todd Martens, Guru and Double D agree on only one: Coldplay's "Viva la Vida." However, Guru and Double D agree with each other on another likely nominee: Duffy's "Mercy."

Coldplay_viva_la_vida_edited1

They also think these tunes have a shot, but in varying degrees: Katy Perry's "I Kissed a Girl" and Leona Lewis' "Bleeding Love." They also agree that Rihanna's "Take a Bow" is a possibility.

Only one of those choices lands in the top five picks at Pop & Hiss: Leona Lewis' "Bleeding Love." See the full blog list HERE. Below, Guru and Double D's predix and reasoning. First, Guru.

RECORD OF THE YEAR: GURU'S PREDIX
(Front-runners)
"I Kissed a Girl," Katy Perry
"Mercy," Duffy
"Viva La Vida," Coldplay

(Possibles)
"All Summer Long," Kid Rock
"Bleeding Love," Leona Lewis
"Lollipop," Lil Wayne
"I'm Yours," Jason Mraz
"Take a Bow," Rihanna

(Long Shots)
"4 Minutes," Madonna featuring Justin Timberlake & Timbaland
"Love Song," Sara Bareilles
"No Air," Jordin Sparks & Chris Brown
"With You," Chris Brown

GURU'S THOUGHTS: I believe this category will be dominated by Pop songs this year.

Coldplay are no strangers to this category. They won Record of the Year for "Clocks" in 2003 and are strong contenders to win again for "Viva La Vida."

I believe Rihanna will be a back to back nominee. Her situation is similar to the one the Black Eyed Peas were in 2003 & 2004. Rihanna had multiple hits this year and is likely to be the #1 on VH1's Top 40 of 2008. I'm leaning towards "Disturbia" but it might be "Take a Bow."

Katy Perry's "I Kissed A Girl" was too big a hit to ignore in 2008.. "I Kissed A Girl." is the "Girls Just Wanna Have Fun" of this decade. Which was a Record of the Year nominee in 1984.

Duffy's "Mercy" seems like a seat filler for Amy Winehouse's "Rehab."

I am really uncertain who will be the fifth nominee. I am between Jason Mraz's "I'm Yours" and Kid Rock's "All Summer Long." Both artists I predicted for Record of the Year in the past and both failed to get nominated (Kid Rock's "Picture" in 2003 and Jason Mraz's "The Remedy"). Anything can happen.

RECORD OF THE YEAR: DOUBLE D's PREDIX
(Front-runners)
"Viva la Vida," Coldplay
"Mercy," Duffy
"American Boy," Estelle f/Kanye West
"Bleeding Love," Leona Lewis
"Apologize," One Republic

(Possibilities)
"Love Song," Sara Bareilles
"With You" or "Forever," Chris Brown
"I Kissed a Girl," Katy Perry
"Take a Bow," Rihanna
"Stay," Sugarland

(Long Shots)"Touch My Body," Mariah Carey"Love Is Free," Sheryl Crow"Busy Being Fabulous," The Eagles"
Lollipop," Lil Wayne"Paper Planes," M.I.A.

DOUBLE D'S THOUGHTS: "Viva la Vida" and "Bleeding Love" are big, soaring, epic ballads that NARAS voters adore in this category. Both are slam dunks for nominations here and the former is the frontrunner to win.

"Mercy" is a retro throwback that will go over well with voters. Urban music will be represented in this category and I think "American Boy" has the best shot of cracking this list out of all of the probable contenders. The last spot will probably go to "Apologize," a song that had an almost unprecedented run on the charts. Chris Brown had a good year and Katy Perry’s "I Kissed A Girl" was ubiquitous this year; either could sneak in for a nod. Sugarland’s "Stay" is probably too low-key to get nodded here but will surely make Song of the Year. Never count out veteran acts so don’t be surprised if Crow, The Eagles or Carey’s record breaking single make the cut.

Photo: Capitol Records

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Comments

Madonna is the Grammy queen! 4 MINUTES will be nominated up there!

Madonna's 4 Minutes should be nominated! The Queen of Pop deserves all teh ajor Grammys for next year.

I think everybody is forgetting about Adele. Her appearance on SNL which made a huge splash corresponded I believe with the nomination period.

Throw "Chasing Pavements" into Record or Song of the Year category for me.

I'm pretty sure Disturbia wasn't submitted for Record Of the Year.

Surprised not to see much love for Beyonce's If I Was A Boy which I thought would be a shoo in.

Is this because of the controversy over the writing credits or the fact that the "worldwide premiere" came a week after the submission deadline?

Hi Tom,

Thanks for the link, and thanks for furthering the discussion. These are all solid picks. Duffy's "Mercy" is certainly a cut that has a pretty good shot of getting in, and I included that as one of my possibles. When I wrote my post, I was wavering between "Mercy" and "Love Song."

And I did have this as an alternate, but I'm just not hearing the love for Katy Perry's "I Kissed A Girl." I think either of the Chris Brown tracks Double D mentions have a better shot. He's viewed as a bit more of a long-term artist.

I'm sticking with Leona as a best bet, though. "Bleeding Love" seems designed for the Grammys.

Anyway, more picks to argue about come this week. We're wrapping up with best new artist and album of the year.

Thanks again for reading and the link,


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