• "Slumdog Millionaire" won best picture, director and newcomer (Dev Patel) at the British Independent Film Awards. Best actor champ: Michael Fassbender, "Hunger." Best actress: Vera Farmiga, "The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas." READ MORE.

These kudos are poor Oscar prophets. "Control" swept last year. In 2006, "This Is England" beat "The Queen" and "Last King of Scotland" for best British film, but those two losers received apt consolation prizes (best director and screenplay).

• All Oscar voters were shipped "The Wrestler" and "Che" DVDs late last week. Some received them in time for the Thanksgiving break. Others didn't. Earlier last week, all voters received "Frost/Nixon," "The Duchess" and "Quantum of Solace." To see what they received prior to that, CLICK HERE!

• Grammy nominations will be announced this Wednesday, Dec. 3. Check out the predictions of our forum posters, plus pipe in with your own views — CLICK HERE!

• Speaking of our forums: Are you confused about what's being campaigned at the Oscars and in what category? Check out the thread in our message boards that's constantly updated by our forums moderator Chris "Boomer" Beachum and our posters as they track "For Your Consideration" ads in Variety, Hollywood Reporter, L.A. Times, etc. — CLICK HERE!

• We may be haughty Oscarologists, but we Envelope bloggers are humbly grateful for some things. Over at the Feinberg Files blog, in honor of Thanksgiving weekend, Scott Feinberg features the 10 movies that he, Pete Hammond and I are most thankful for. By the way, "Peggy Sue Got Married" is not only one of my 10 favorite films, it's also on my list of 10 greatest pix. Go 'head and laugh and I'll come out swinging something to be found in another one of the pix on my list, "The Shining" — Jack Nicholson's hatchet.

• If you were hoping to hustle an invite to Vanity Fair's Oscar party for the first time this year, forget it. "We're going to scale back the guest list considerably," says editor Graydon Carter of the bash to be held on Feb. 22 at the Sunset Tower Hotel. "It will be a cozier, more understated event." READ MORE

• The New York Times' Carpetbagger David Carr — hooray — has started to pipe in about Oscarmania, noting that the "seasons seems even sillier than usual. After all, who really cares about the throwdown for best supporting actor at a time when the citizenry seems poised for a run on its own banks? But watching Hollywood hug itself in an orgy of self-congratulation has some real psychic benefit." READ MORE. But, hey, why hasn't Carr restarted the crazy carousel at his blog HERE?

Photos: Fox Searchlight, Tristar

Variety's review of "The Reader" is good news/ bad news. Todd McCarthy says, "Stephen Daldry's film is sensitively realized and dramatically absorbing, but comes across as an essentially cerebral experience without gut impact . . . . Kate Winslet supplies a haunting shell to this internally decimated woman," but McCarthy feels cheated because she's so emotionally remote that "one can never look inside the character of Hanna."

Already Oscarologists Kris Tapley of InContention.com and Jeff Wells of Hollywood-Elsewhere.com are bailing on "The Reader," which I think is a huge mistake. It's a serious contender for best picture and actress as the nominations for the Satellite Awards just demonstrated. Sure, those awards aren't important themselves, but often they are fascinating tea leaves not to be ignored.

In recent years the Satellites were the first awards of derby season to bestow best-picture noms to small contenders like "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Little Miss Sunshine," "Juno" and "Lost in Translation." Sure, they nominated other flicks that got skunked like "Antwone Fisher," "Flags of Our Fathers" and "Jarhead," but some past best-pic nominees like "Half Nelson" and "Hustle & Flow" at least poked through in acting slots at the Oscars, which may be significant this year because of Kate Winslet's dueling bids for "The Reader" and "Revolutionary Road."

Meantime, I stand by my declaration that "The Reader" is a serious contender in all top Oscar races — READ MORE

Photo: Weinstein Co.

Uh-oh! Kate Winslet's vote-splitting has officially begun! The Satellite Awards just nominated Kate Winslet in the best-actress race for "The Reader" instead of "Revolutionary Road," thus ignoring her campaign to put the "Reader" role in supporting. However, both films are up for best drama picture, but there are several, big curious omissions in that race: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," "Doubt" and "The Dark Knight." The latter snub is especially bizarre considering Christopher Nolan is up for best director.

The other contenders for best drama pic: "Slumdog Millionaire," "Frost/Nixon," "Milk" and — surprise — "Frozen River." The pix up for best comedy/musical: "Happy-Go-Lucky," "Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist," "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," "Tropic Thunder," "In Bruges," "Choke." Notable snubs: "Burn After Reading," "Mamma Mia!" and "High School Musical 3," which all could rally at the Golden Globes.

None of the helmers of those comedies got a bid for best director. In addition to Nolan, the nominees for that race: Thomas McCarthy ("The Visitor"), Ron Howard ("Frost/Nixon"), Gus Van Sant ("Milk"), Christopher Nolan ("The Dark Knight"), Danny Boyle ("Slumdog Millionaire") and Stephen Daldry ("The Reader"). The snub of Sam Mendes ("Revolutionary Road") is surprising.

There are lots of other peculiarities in this year's list. "Australia" has nine nominations, but none for best picture. Penelope Cruz is considered to be a front-runner at the Oscars in the supporting race, but she isn't nominated by the Satellites for "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," which is up for best comedy. She did score a bid for "Elegy," though. "Benjamin Button" is based upon a short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald, but it's nommed in the category for original screenplays.

The Satellites are bestowed by a rebel group of foreign journos who broke off from the Golden Globes back in the early 1990s. Often their tastes reflect the views of their foreign colleagues, who in turn mirror the outcome of the Oscars. But often the views of the Satellites can also seem like they're beamed in from the planet Neptune.

Last year they nominated only two of Oscar's five best-picture contenders: "Juno" and "No Country for Old Men." At least they managed to include the winner. Last year's Oscar champ as best actor, Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood"), wasn't nominated, but the film was probably absent from all races because voters didn't see the late-year release in time. (The same is probably true this year for "Gran Torino," which is snubbed.) In fact, the Satellites forecast only two of Oscar's best-actor finalists: Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises") and Tommy Lee Jones ("In the Valley of Elah"). However, they did tap all best-actress contenders.

How do the Satellites compare to the Globes? Just as often as they agree, they seem to disagree — drastically. Last year the Satellites for best picture went to "No Country for Old Men" and "Juno." Globers preferred "Atonement" and "Sweeney Todd." In 2007, the two awards agreed again on best comedy/musical ("Dreamgirls"), but the Globes chose "Babel" for best picture while the Satellites opted for "The Departed." The previous year both kudos picked "Brokeback Mountain" and "Walk the Line." In 2004, they split: Both chose "Sideways" as best comedy/musical pic, but the Satellites opted for "Hotel Rwanda" as best drama and the Globes went for "The Aviator."

Below is a partial list of nominees. See full list at the Satellites' website. The awards will be bestoed on Dec. 14 at the Century City InterContinental Hotel.

BEST PICTURE, DRAMA
"The Reader "
"Slumdog Millionaire "
"Revolutionary Road "
"Frost/Nixon "
"Milk "
"Frozen River "

BEST PICTURE, COMEDY/MUSICAL
"Happy-Go-Lucky "
"Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist "
"Vicky Cristina Barcelona "
"Tropic Thunder "
"In Bruges "
"Choke "

LATimes.com readers have already seen what our Pop & Hiss blog says will nab bids for record of the year when Grammy nominations are announced this Wednesday, Dec. 3. To make things interesting, I requested challenging views from two of The Envelope's experts — our forum moderators David "Guru" Schnelwar and Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch.

Of the five songs cited by the Pop & Hiss blogger Todd Martens, Guru and Double D agree on only one: Coldplay's "Viva la Vida." However, Guru and Double D agree with each other on another likely nominee: Duffy's "Mercy."

They also think these tunes have a shot, but in varying degrees: Katy Perry's "I Kissed a Girl" and Leona Lewis' "Bleeding Love." They also agree that Rihanna's "Take a Bow" is a possibility.

Only one of those choices lands in the top five picks at Pop & Hiss: Leona Lewis' "Bleeding Love." See the full blog list HERE. Below, Guru and Double D's predix and reasoning. First, Guru.

RECORD OF THE YEAR: GURU'S PREDIX
(Front-runners)
"I Kissed a Girl," Katy Perry
"Mercy," Duffy
"Viva La Vida," Coldplay

(Possibles)
"All Summer Long," Kid Rock
"Bleeding Love," Leona Lewis
"Lollipop," Lil Wayne
"I'm Yours," Jason Mraz
"Take a Bow," Rihanna

(Long Shots)
"4 Minutes," Madonna featuring Justin Timberlake & Timbaland
"Love Song," Sara Bareilles
"No Air," Jordin Sparks & Chris Brown
"With You," Chris Brown

GURU'S THOUGHTS: I believe this category will be dominated by Pop songs this year.

Coldplay are no strangers to this category. They won Record of the Year for "Clocks" in 2003 and are strong contenders to win again for "Viva La Vida."

I believe Rihanna will be a back to back nominee. Her situation is similar to the one the Black Eyed Peas were in 2003 & 2004. Rihanna had multiple hits this year and is likely to be the #1 on VH1's Top 40 of 2008. I'm leaning towards "Disturbia" but it might be "Take a Bow."

Katy Perry's "I Kissed A Girl" was too big a hit to ignore in 2008.. "I Kissed A Girl." is the "Girls Just Wanna Have Fun" of this decade. Which was a Record of the Year nominee in 1984.

Duffy's "Mercy" seems like a seat filler for Amy Winehouse's "Rehab."

I am really uncertain who will be the fifth nominee. I am between Jason Mraz's "I'm Yours" and Kid Rock's "All Summer Long." Both artists I predicted for Record of the Year in the past and both failed to get nominated (Kid Rock's "Picture" in 2003 and Jason Mraz's "The Remedy"). Anything can happen.

RECORD OF THE YEAR: DOUBLE D's PREDIX
(Front-runners)
"Viva la Vida," Coldplay
"Mercy," Duffy
"American Boy," Estelle f/Kanye West
"Bleeding Love," Leona Lewis
"Apologize," One Republic

(Possibilities)
"Love Song," Sara Bareilles
"With You" or "Forever," Chris Brown
"I Kissed a Girl," Katy Perry
"Take a Bow," Rihanna
"Stay," Sugarland

(Long Shots)"Touch My Body," Mariah Carey"Love Is Free," Sheryl Crow"Busy Being Fabulous," The Eagles"
Lollipop," Lil Wayne"Paper Planes," M.I.A.

DOUBLE D'S THOUGHTS: "Viva la Vida" and "Bleeding Love" are big, soaring, epic ballads that NARAS voters adore in this category. Both are slam dunks for nominations here and the former is the frontrunner to win.

It doesn't matter what acting category you campaign for at the Academy Awards — voters can put you wherever they want. Most frequently, when ignoring category guidance, they tend to promote contenders from the supporting race to lead like Keisha Castle-Hughes ("Whale Rider"), but sometimes they have the nerve to push a lead contender down to supporting. Which one of these actors suffered that humiliating fate? To see the answer, CLICK HERE!

Pundits are constantly updating their Oscars predix at the Envelope's Buzzmeter, so remember to keep checking back often. (Bookmark THIS LINK for quick access in the future.)

Below is a sampling of newest predix from top gurus, who include Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope), Peter Howell (Toronto Star), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Lou Lumenick (New York Post), Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily.com), Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com) and moi.

Notice how close the battle is over best picture. While four of these seven seers pick "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," two of us naysayers back "Slumdog Millionaire" and one opts for "Milk." All four "Button" backers put "Slumdog Millionaire" in second place. I — a "Slumdog" supporter — list "Button" as the runner-up."

Views are split over best actor: three votes for Frank Langella ("Frost/Nixon"), two for Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler"), one for Sean Penn ("Milk") and one for Leo DiCaprio ("Revolutionary Road").

Kate Winslet ("Revolutionary Road") zooms ahead of previous front-runner Meryl Streep ("Doubt") with four votes to one. Streep even falls behind Kristin Scott Thomas ("I've Loved You So Long"), who has two votes.

Photo: Miramax

Good news for Sean Penn fans: At the end of "Milk" — SPOILER ALERT — you get to watch your hero get blown away by gunfire.

Sorry, but that seems to be the price Penn must pay if he wants to win another Oscar to match the chunk of academy gold he nabbed for 2003's "Mystic River." That's because gay roles that win Academy Awards for actors almost always must suffer ghastly deaths.

No star has ever won an Oscar for portraying a gay, lesbian or transgender person who lives happily ever after. The character of Truman Capote (Philip Seymour Hoffman) gets to live, yes, at the end of "Capote," but we know that he'll end up croaking from booze and pills someday while stumbling around Joanne Carson's house in Beverly Hills.

The five other roles that paid off with Oscars have horrible ends on screen: Tom Hanks dies of AIDS in "Philadelphia," Hilary Swank gets beaten to death in "Boys Don't Cry," Nicole Kidman commits suicide in "The Hours," Charlize Theron is executed in "Monster," and William Hurt gets shot — much like Sean Penn — in "Kiss of the Spider Woman."

If you don't count roles that just hint at a character's homosexuality (Paul Newman in "Cat on a Hot Tin Roof" or Tom Courtenay in "The Dresser"), I've tallied up 28 gay, lesbian and transgender roles that have been nominated for Oscars. (Have I missed any? If so, click the comments link below.)

Nine get killed off. Some snuff themselves: Kathy Bates uses a pistol in "Primary Colors," Ian McKellen drowns himself in "Gods and Monsters," Ed Harris jumps out a window in "The Hours, " Javier Bardem dies of AIDS in "Before Night Falls."

The fact that Sean Penn is heterosexual in real life hikes his Oscar hopes significantly. No gay person has ever won an Academy Award for playing gay, and only two openly homosexual actors have been nominated for portraying someone with a lavender lilt: James Coco and Ian McKellen. Coco wasn't officially and fully "out" of the closet, but he was candid about his private life to friends and colleagues and frequently flaunted a flamboyant nature in public.

ACTORS NOMINATED FOR GAY ROLES
(X = Winner)
Estelle Parsons ("Rachel, Rachel") (1968)
Peter Finch, "Sunday Bloody Sunday" (1971)
Al Pacino, "Dog Day Afternoon" (1975)
Chris Sarandon, "Dog Day Afternoon" (1975)
John Lithgow, "World According to Garp" (1982)
Marcello Mastroianni, "A Special Day" (1977)
James Coco, "Only When I Laugh" (1981)
Robert Preston, "Victor, Victoria" (1982)
Cher, "Silkwood" (1983)
X - William Hurt, "Kiss of the Spider Woman" (1985)
Bruce Davison, "Longtime Companion" (1990)
Tommy Lee Jones, "JFK" (1991)
Jaye Davidson, "The Crying Game" (1992)
X - Tom Hanks, "Philadelphia" (1993)
Greg Kinnear, "As Good as It Gets" (1997)
Ian McKellen, "Gods and Monsters" (1998)
Kathy Bates, "Primary Colors" (1998)
X - Hilary Swank, "Boys Don't Cry" (1999)
Javier Bardem, "Before Night Falls" (2000)
Ed Harris, "The Hours" (2002)
X - Nicole Kidman, "The Hours" (2002)
Julianne Moore, "The Hours" (2002)
X - Charlize Theron, "Monster" (2003)
X - Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote" (2005)
Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica" (2005)
Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain" (2005)
Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain" (2005)
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal" (2006)

Photos: TriStar, Island Alive, Miramax, Fox Searchlight

Tub-thumping for SAG Awards is much less ambitious than blitzing all 13,000 members of the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences to be in the Emmy running. For the first round, you just need to target the 2,100 members of the Screen Actors Guild nominating committee. Check out Showtime's campaign box that was recently shipped, containing these DVDs:

"Brotherhood" — Episodes 301, 302
"Californication" — Episodes 201-204, 207, 210
"Dexter" — Episodes 301, 302, 303, 304
"The L Word" — Episodes 509-512
"Secret Diary of a Call Girl" — Episodes 101-106
"Tracey Ullman's State of the Union" — Episodes 101-105 (entire first season)
"Weeds" — Episodes 403, 408-413

Nominations will be announced Dec. 18.

While Brooke Burke waltzed off with the win in the seventh-season finale of "Dancing with the Stars," it is one of her three judges who could end up as an Emmy champ. Next fall, the judges of reality shows are slated to get their own Emmy category. Last September, show emcee Tom Bergeron lost the first-ever Emmy Award for reality host to Jeff Probst of "Survivor." While there are no judges on "Survivor," any or all of the "DWTS" trio could face strong competition from that triumvirate who sits in judgment on "American Idol."

Soon after this season of "DWTS" launched, Gold Derby readers favored feisty Bruno Tonioli as the likely winner of this new award, and he reaped slightly more than half of the 1,348 votes cast in our poll. His fellow judges lagged far behind, with Len Goodman registering 29% and Carrie Anne Inaba managing only 20% support. Throughout the ensuing weeks, all three judges have proven themselves to be every bit as entertaining as the celebrities who are dancing to impress them. And remember — the Emmy judges will be judging these judges based upon a sample of their work.

Goodman and Tonioli enthusiastically backed Burke from the start as a potential champ, and the public followed suit. Any of those rhapsodic reviews of her fancy footwork would make for a fine Emmy submission. However, on many of those shows, they were equally dismissive of Cloris Leachman. As the all-time Emmy winner rallied enough votes to last seven weeks before being eliminated, their comments could be construed as bad sportsmanship.

Indeed, on this fall's edition of the original British version of the show, "Strictly Come Dancing," these two judges railed continually against one contestant -- former BBC news anchor John Sergeant -- to no avail. The 64-year-old with two left feet proved to be the people's favorite and was kept in week after week by the public vote, despite low marks from the judges. Faced with overwhelming criticism from the panel and daunted by the prospect he might actually win, Sergeant withdrew from the show last week. The ensuing scandal tarnished the reputation of the reality show in old Blighty as going against the wishes of the audience. Luckily for Goodman and Tonioli, the American viewers went with the woman they thought to be the winner all along.

Photo: Associated Press

No wonder that notorious rascal Harvey Weinstein was so hellbent to push "The Reader" into this year's Oscars derby. It became quite clear after a screening Tuesday night in New York: It's a serious contender for best picture, director, actress (lead or supporting — more on that later), supporting actors, screenplay plus other slots. And that could possibly trip up a rival contender.

There have been grave doubts about "The Reader" because it takes an ambivalent look at a perpetrator of the Holocaust rather than a sympathetic one of the victims. Kate Winslet portrays a woman who dispatched Jews to gas chambers and doesn't seem obviously repentant later when she's tried in court. How can anyone, especially Jewish Oscar voters, embrace that?

The question got a fascinating test at the screening at a Jewish organization, the 92nd Street Y, a branch of YMHA, where the audience of more than 750-plus viewers was largely enthralled. Afterward, I overhead lots of huzzahs and no slams.

The screening was followed by a Q&A session conducted by Columbia University professor Annette Insdorf with director Stephen Daldry, who savvily articulated the reasons why "The Reader's" story may not be offensive. Kate Winslet's character isn't overtly sorry for her past, no, not early in the film anyway, but viewers may believe she becomes so later, especially when she does something that may be perceived as punishing herself. The uncertainty makes "The Reader" all the more fascinating as a drama.

"I tried to leave things ambiguous," Daldry said. "I want to keep what she learned and what she didn't from us. It's not for us to know."

During the first part of the film, it's clear that Kate Winslet's character, Hanna, is "morally illiterate," Daldry added. (There were loud gasps throughout the audience when he uttered that phrase.) But later in the story, Daldry said, he and screenwriter David Hare cautiously applied "complicated calibration to try to find careful relations to when you are sympathetic to her and when you're not."

Two Oscar pundits who saw "Revolutionary Road" and "The Reader" this week and who asked not to quoted by name (for reasons I don't understand but will honor) believe that "The Reader" has a better shot at a best-picture nomination and even a lead actress bid for Winslet. A few others I admire disagree and pick "Revolutionary Road" for both categories. Personally, I haven't sorted out my own thoughts yet, but the former opinions — and the response "The Reader" got Tuesday night in New York — tell me that Harvey Weinstein may be quite happy on Jan. 22 when noms are unveiled.

Let's consider, first, a best picture bid. "The Reader" will get a chunk of No. 1 votes on nomination ballots, but enough? Dunno. Considering how Oscar voting works, using that odd preferential ballot, it could get in with a strong minority vote even if it's not listed among the five choices ranked by a majority of academy members. Remember, only No. 1 (and sometimes No. 2) votes really count when tallies are done.

Secondly, about 80% of best pic nominees usually line up with films in the helming race. That's great news for "The Reader." Stephen Daldry has never not been nominated for best director. "The Reader" is his third feature film, and he previously reaped bids for "The Hours" and "Billy Elliot." "The Hours" got nommed for best pic, "Billy Elliot" didn't.

Thirdly, movies nominated for best picture usually get corresponding bids in screenplay and acting, and "The Reader" is strong in those races. David Hare got nominated for penning "The Hours," and Ralph Fiennes and David Kross are strong contenders for supporting actor.

Now let's consider the lead actress race, the most intriguing Oscar mystery of all. Kate Winslet is campaigning in lead for "Revolutionary Road" and supporting in "The Reader." That preference may make sense to Winslet — "Revolutionary Road" is directed by her husband, Sam Mendes — but, frankly, it's absurd to define her role in "The Reader" as supporting.

Winslet gives powerhouse lead performances in both films, but according to the academy's bizarre rules, she can only be nominated once per category. (Directors and writers, however, can have multiple bids per slot.) Oscar voters may graciously assign her two roles to the separate categories, as she asks, but they've ignored category guidance in the past in cases like "Whale Rider" star Keisha Castle-Hughes, who campaigned for supporting and got upped to lead when noms came out.

KEEP READING - CLICK HERE!