SubscribeOscars predix: Best picture hopes brighten for 'The Dark Knight'
"Gran Torino" and "The Reader" have dropped out of the best picture running, and Kate Beckinsale ("Nothing But the Truth") and Richard Jenkins ("The Visitor") have vanished from the acting races, according to the latest batch of our pundits' predix. Piping in are Scott Bowles (USA Today), Erik Davis (Cinematical), Greg Ellwood (MSN Movies), Scott Feinberg (The Feinberg Files, The Envelope), Nathaniel Rogers (TheFilmExperience) and me.
Only two flicks get unanimous support for best picture bids: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and "Slumdog Millionaire." Not only has backing for "The Dark Knight" grown significantly in the last two weeks, but hugely: Five of our six prognosticators now foresee a top nom. Support for "Milk" has evaporated a bit (formerly, it got backing from a majority of seers), and there seems to be genuine doubt about "Doubt" (only one vote), but those flicks may rally in our next predix roundup when we tap additional gurus. Also noteworthy: Finally, Cate Blanchett ("Benjamin Button") is getting notice in the actress lineup. She has excellent odds to be nominated. She not only stars in the best picture front-runner, but she ages dramatically on screen (like many past winners, including last year's champ Marion Cotillard in "La Vie en Rose"). I want to add Cate to my list too, but I just can't (for now) cruelly boot out one of my current fave five. Hey, I try to remain loyal to my gals ... as long as I can in fickle Hollywood, anyway.
| BEST PICTURE | Bowles | Feinberg | O'Neil | Rogers | Davis | Ellwood |
| 'Australia' |
X |
X |
||||
| 'Benjamin Button' |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
| 'Dark Knight' |
X |
|
X |
X |
X |
X |
|
'Doubt' |
X |
|||||
| 'Frost/Nixon' |
X |
X |
X |
|
|
X |
| 'Milk' |
X |
|
|
X |
|
|
| 'Revolutionary Road' |
|
X |
X |
|
X |
X |
| 'Slumdog Millionaire' |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
| BEST ACTOR | Bowles | Feinberg | O'Neil | Rogers | Davis | Ellwood |
| Leo DiCaprio, 'Revolutionary Road |
X |
X |
|
X |
X | |
| Clint Eastwood, 'Gran Torino' |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
|
|
Benicio del Toro, 'Che' |
X |
|||||
| Frank Langella, 'Frost/Nixon' |
X |
|
X |
X |
X |
X |
| Sean Penn, 'Milk' |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
| Brad Pitt, 'Benjamin Button' |
|
X |
X |
X |
|
X |
| Mickey Rourke, 'The Wrestler' |
X |
X |
|
X |
X |
X |
| BEST ACTRESS | Bowles | Feinberg | O'Neil | Rogers | Davis | Ellwood |
| Cate Blanchett, 'Benjamin Button' |
X |
X | ||||
| Anne Hathaway, 'Rachel Getting Married' |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
| Sally Hawkins, 'Happy-Go-Lucky' |
X |
|
X |
X |
|
|
| Angelina Jolie, 'Changeling' |
|
|
X |
|
X |
X |
| Nicole Kidman, 'Australia' |
|
X |
||||
| Meryl Streep, 'Doubt' |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
| Kristin Scott Thomas, 'I've Loved You So Long' |
X |
|
|
X |
X |
X |
| Kate Winslet, 'Revolutionary Road' |
X |
X |
|
X |
X |
X |
| Kate Winslet, 'The Reader' |
X |
|
(Warner Bros.)
And Wall-E??? it deserves a nomination!!!
The best movie of the year!!
i loved Changeling too.
Posted by: Diego | November 20, 2008 at 01:12 PM
Ledger should get (and win) supporting actor.
He'd get destroyed in the best actor category...
Posted by: 4nea | November 15, 2008 at 05:19 PM
What about the Wrestler?? It has literally perfect reviews and is sure to get a pest pic nom.
Posted by: Coog | November 13, 2008 at 03:47 AM
I would think they'll give a nod to Wall-e since the push is big from many different sources. Plus, Beauty and the Beast was nominated and lost out to Silence of the Lambs. As for Ledger, I think they'll have him in the supporting actor, even tho screen time shouldn't be a factor (Hopkins wasn't on screen long for Lecter, and Ledger had that kind of impact)
Posted by: Lance | November 06, 2008 at 10:27 PM
Where's WALL-E?? I can't believe it's not even talked about or mentioned anywhere in the article. I understand TDK moving up since no serious contenders have appeared in the last weeks, but come on, Wall-E is not even considered a plausible contender?
Posted by: Jorge | November 05, 2008 at 04:59 PM
The only two I care that get BP nods are The Dark Knight and Wall-E. Are you guys anti-animation or is there some rule against it? Just because it's gonna win in it's own category doesn't mean it can't get the nod for normal BP does it?
Posted by: Aura | November 05, 2008 at 04:55 PM
i hope these are not the final nominations for the AAs. WALL-E deserves at least nomination for Best Picture (despite the fact that it's a almost gaurenteed for Best Animated Pic). And Heath Ledger deserves nomination for the Joker in The Dark Knight. I don't care if he wins (it would be nice if he did), he should be nominated at least.
Posted by: jake | November 04, 2008 at 02:17 PM
I agree with Arous, what about Wall-E?
Posted by: Kristy | November 04, 2008 at 12:38 PM
I love and appreciate these roundups, but when is the Buzzmeter going to start up again? It's, without a doubt, the most useful Oscar prediction tool I've ever seen.
Posted by: Jack | November 03, 2008 at 08:10 PM
Clint Eastwood, 'Gran Torino'!
You have got to be kidding! The trailer alone was a laff fest!
Posted by: Arous | November 03, 2008 at 03:55 PM
What about Wall*E, hands down one of the best movie of the year.
Posted by: Zlantan | November 03, 2008 at 03:24 PM
Yay! I really hope the Oscars recognize this movie as one of the (if not the) best movie of the year and not cast it aside for being "another billion dollar summer blockbuster" movie.
Posted by: Amar | November 03, 2008 at 12:30 PM