Album of the year predix: Hey, why no Grammy pundit smackdown?
When Grammy nominations are announced on Wednesday, expect lots of head-scratchers, particularly in the top four categories: best album, record, song and new artist of the year. Those are all determined by a secret committee of "music experts" who powwow in a hotel over one weekend and listen to the discs that landed in the top 20 when the votes were cast by the general membership of the National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences.
Getting in the heads of those mysterious gurus is frustrating, so it's tough to try to predict nominees. But not impossible. Pundits have a good guess about what music probably made the top 20 runoffs — then they just need to keep in mind what the secret gurus usually do. That is, they like to be democratic and all-inclusive, scattering the five nominees among music genres, so it's not likely, say, that several rap works will be nominated together. Below, our forum moderators David "Guru" Schnelwar and Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch explain that voting trend in more detail as they offer up their predix of what they think will be nominated for best album of the year on Dec. 3. To see more Grammy predix from our forum posters, click here.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR: GURU'S PREDIX
(Front-runners)
"Viva la Vida or Death and All His Friends," Coldplay
"Long Road Out of Eden," Eagles
"As I Am," Alicia Keys
"Raising Sand," Robert Plant & Alison Krauss
(Possible)
"Rockferry," Duffy
"Lay It Down," Al Green
"Tha Carter III," Lil Wayne
(Long Shots)
"American Gangster," Jay-Z
"Detours," Sheryl Crow
"Hard Candy," Madonna
"In Rainbows," Radiohead
"Modern Guilt," Beck
"Rock N Roll Jesus," Kid Rock
"Sleeping Through the Static," Jack Johnson
GURU'S THOUGHTS: In 2007, the five nominees were each from a different genre field: Herbie Hancock (jazz), Vince Gill (country), Foo Fighters (rock), Amy Winehouse (pop) and Kanye West (rap).
I'm guessing the same thing could happen this year: Coldplay (rock), the Eagles (pop), Alicia Keys (R&B) and Robert Plant and Alison Krauss (folk). The fifth nomination is up for grabs. I think it will between Duffy (pop) and Lil Wayne (rap).
The Eagles, Alicia Keys and Robert Plant and Alison Krauss all won last year before their albums were eligible. That is usually a good indicator.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR: DOUBLE D'S PREDIX
(Front-runners)
"As I Am," Alicia Keys
"Long Road Out of Eden," The Eagles
"Viva la Vida or Death and All His Friends," Coldplay
"Raising Sand," Robert Plant & Alison Krauss
"Tha Carter III," Lil Wayne
(Possibilities)
"Death Magnetic," Metallica
"Detours," Sheryl Crow
"Love on the Inside," Sugarland
"One Kind Favor," B.B. King
"Rockferry," Duffy
(Long Shots)
"Accelerate," R.E.M.
"Carnival Ride," Carrie Underwood
"In Rainbows," Radiohead
"Lay It Down," Al Green
"Modern Guilt," Beck
"Spirit," Leona Lewis
"Still Unforgettable," Natalie Cole
"Two Men With the Blues," Willie Nelson and Wynton Marsalis
DOUBLE D'S THOUGHTS: Keys is a Grammy favorite, a past nominee here, and Billboard just named her disc the best-selling album of 2008; she's in. The Eagles' comeback record is also sure to get in here and they will win. Coldplay returned strong and will earn their first nod in this category. Krauss is a 21-time Grammy winner and her duet disc with Robert Plant will be like catnip to NARAS voters.
Last year all five nominees in this category were from different genres, so I think Lil Wayne's album will be the final nominee. It is the best-selling hip-hop album of the year and got terrific reviews. If any of those five don't come through, then I think Sugarland's "Love on the Inside" — their first No. 1 album — is next in line. And never discount any of these veteran acts. Voters love to honor vets in this category, as evidenced by the ridiculous nominations of Herbie Hancock and the Foo Fighters last year.
Photo credits: Capitol, Rounder, J. Records, Eagles Recording Co.



