Three times in Academy Awards history a movie won the top prize without its helmer being nominated! Which of the four films pictured below did have its director in the running? That helmer won, but was never nominated again. CLICK HERE to see the answer.

The design is by Los Angeles artist Colin McGreal in association with Famous Frames. The poster will be distributed to the 1,300 guests attending the ceremony on January 11 at the Beverly Hilton.

Photo: Hollywood Foreign Press Association

• My Envelope colleague Pete Hammond delivers his usual punchy insight into the state of the Oscars derby as academy voters receive their nomination ballots this week. Pete focuses on the various strategies at play as the widely released hit "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" goes up against the limited unspooling of pictures like "Revolutionary Road." For Pete, it is all about having your film seen by the people that matter -- the 5,810 Oscar voters. NOTES ON A SEASON

• Another of my Envelope colleagues, Scott Feinberg, has lined up one of those voters -- an Oscar winning screenwriter -- to offer his thoughts on the various pictures in the running at this point in the race. Using the oh-so-apt moniker "Deep Vote," he gave a thumbs up to "Happy-Go-Lucky" while dismissing "The Reader." And as for "The Wrestler" -- "I liked Mickey Rourke well enough, but the trouble is there is no story." FEINBERG FILES

• Sasha Stone of AwardsDaily.com surveys the field and says quite frankly, "Nobody knows anything. Not right now anyway. We’re dealing with a lot of opinions out there. What we do know is that there is only one movie at this moment that appeals across the board to the majority: 'Slumdog Millionaire'." Harking back to previous best picture winners, Sasha cites these examples to refute "two possible turn-offs — one, no major American stars. The last time a film like that won Best Pic was 'The Last Emperor' and even that one was a sweeping epic and had Peter O’Toole in it. Two, subtitles. That didn’t stop 'Schindler’s List' from getting nominated, and weren’t there subtitles in 'The English Patient'? Both 'The Last Emperor' and 'The English Patient' remind me of 'Slumdog's' chances in this race. All three films have an inevitability about them, partly because they have no viable challengers. No film came remotely close to beating 'The English Patient' and 'The Last Emperor'." AWARDS DAILY

• Dave Karger of EW wonders whether box office should affect the Oscars. As he notes, "Certainly poor box office performance helped kill movies like 'Memoirs of a Geisha' and 'The Kite Runner' in the past, while blockbusters like 'The Sixth Sense' and 'The Fugitive' capitalized on their financial success to earn Oscar nods." After analyzing the box office returns of the likeliest contenders, he concludes, "should it make a difference? Whether or not The Dark Knight ends up snagging the fifth slot may just provide the answer." ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY

• Nathaniel Rogers of TheFilmExperience has grown weary of Hollywood studios dumping their Oscar hopefuls in December of every year. "Research shows that the problem is getting worse, " he sighs. "I took all the release dates from IMDB stretching back 50 years and the "December Glut" problem does indeed worsen each decade. " Check it out his graphic chart. FILM EXPERIENCE

• Being released so late in December may have hurt one top contender, according to Anne Thompson of Variety. "Why did 'Revolutionary Road' wait until the day after Christmas to open?" she asks. "By waiting so long, the movie may have lost the opportunity to be explained and supported by critics and press . . . . I'm missing that sense of growing momentum that it should have right now . . . . 'Rev Road' is shaping up as more admired than beloved. At the Academy screening this weekend — the year's last — not many voters showed up, although it did get applause. (Many folks are away and will watch it on DVD.) " THOMPSON ON HOLLYWOOD

• Dan Kois, one of those rascally Vultures over at New York magazine, has fun poking holes in the aging-in-reverse plot point central to "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button." As per Dan: "David Fincher delivers the old-man baby the trailer promised, but completely botches it in portraying the old-baby man that Brad Pitt should've become at the end of the movie. Benjamin Button is born an old-man baby: a wizened, 80-year-old man, stuffed into a body the size and shape of a newborn infant's. His body grows taller and larger throughout his "childhood," until, by the time he's 18 or so, his body is the size of an adult's, even though he still looks, like, 60. So it stands to reason that, as Benjamin Button approaches the end of his life, he should become a child, and then a baby, stuffed into a body the size and shape of an old man's, right?" NEW YORK VULTURE

• Forget the best movies of 2008 for just a sec. Kris Tapley of InContention.com lists his top 10 worst flicks of the year. On top: "88 Minutes" ("It only felt like 88 weeks," Kris kvetches.) No. 2: "10,000 B.C." No. 3: "The Love Guru." Hey, where's "The Hottie and the Nottie," Kris? That Paris Hilton classic — certain to be a hottie Razzies contender — is nowhere in your rundown! It not only scored a lowly 7 at MetaCritic.com, but the site ranks it as the tenth worst film ever! Ranked at No.16 worst of all time — this year's "Meet the Spartans" (9 score), also skunked by you, Kris! For shame! IN CONTENTION

• Brad Trechak of TV Squad offers his unique spin on the USPS announcement of a new series of stamps commemorating the best of the so-called "Golden Age" of television. Among the 20 shows to be featured -- along with such timeless classics as "I Love Lucy" and "The Honeymooners" (the creation of perpetually Emmy-snubbed Jackie Gleason) -- is three-time Emmy champ "The Phil Silvers Show." As faithful readers of this column know, I was able to buy one of those Emmys at auction several weeks back. Look for it on display in the near future at the Hollywood Museum. TV SQUAD

Photos: Paramount, Paramount Vantage, Regent Releasing, Columbia Pictures

"Wall-E" makes a dramatic breakthrough into The Envelope's Buzzmeter as Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com) is our first prognosticator to predict that it'll be among the five best-picture nominees. In Gold Derby's recent poll of our readers, by the way, respondents split almost exactly 50-50 about its chances. See poll results here and read more about the pros and cons of its high hopes, according to the views of top Oscar experts who piped in with their opinions, including Wells.

Wells pegs "Slumdog Millionaire" to be the eventual winner, just like four other gurus in this sampling of seven pundits: Thelma Adams (Us Weekly), Scott Feinberg (Feinberg Files, The Envelope), Mark Harris (Entertainment Weekly) and Kevin Lewin (World Entertainment News Network). "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" gets backing from two seers: T.L. Stanley (Gold Rush, Hollywood Reporter) and Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today).

Sean Penn ("Milk") continues to dominate the actors' battle, reaping support from five of these seven pundits. Kate Winslet ("Revolutionary Road") has a slight edge over Meryl Streep ("Doubt") in the leading ladies' clawfest. Note that poor Cate Blanchett ("Curious Case of Benjamin Button") fell off this chart due to no votes. She does get some at our Buzzmeter, which includes the input of many more pundits. To see the predix of each guru, click on the link "See Panelists," then select the name of each prophet to see their forecasts. Underneath each category, it's important to click on the link marked "expand to see all picks" in order to behold our rankings in each race.

Photo: Disney

As every Oscarologist knows, this year poor Kate Winslet could not only tie Deborah Kerr's and Thelma Ritter's record as the biggest losing actress, but surpass it — that is, if she gets her wish and she's nominated in lead for "Revolutionary Road" and in supporting for "The Reader." (And she loses both.) Does Village Voice wag Michael Musto think she can prevail?

Well, let's put it this way: He agrees with me that she may get only one nomination — in lead for "The Reader," not "Revolutionary Road" — and he's betting (for now) on Meryl Streep ("Doubt") to claim that top trophy. Check out what Michael thinks about the best-actor derby and, separately, why he thinks this year's Oscars will be the gayest affair ever.

Camera work by Paul Sheehan

Photos: 20th Century Fox, Paramount Vantage

Now that Oscars ballots are in the hands of academy voters, the derby has officially started and the campaign blitz of DVD screeners is over. The last to arrive in the mailboxes of the full academy membership: "Australia" around Dec. 23.

That's strange because its star, Hugh Jackman, is host of the Oscar gala and because 20th Century Fox had early, high Oscar hopes for the latest screen work by director Baz Luhrmann, whose "Moulin Rouge!" scored eight nominations in 2001, including best picture. That's not going to happen to "Australia" now that stone-hearted film critics with no sense of humor attacked it with nuclear weapons.

However, many audiences — and Oscar voters — adored it and it may do well in crafts categories where it might even make Oscar history if Mandy Walker becomes the first female ever nominated for best cinematography. Hopefully, most Oscar voters saw her dazzling, epic lens work up on the big screen. A rep for the studio says that the reason the DVD was shipped so late was to force academy members to see "Australia" in theaters and screening rooms "as Baz intended," not on small TV screens at home.

It's understandable why "In Bruges" shipped so late, arriving in voters' mailboxes around Dec. 22. Focus Features rushed it out after its surprisingly strong showing at the Golden Globes nominations where it earned top bids for best picture and actors Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson.

Considering all of the hype around "Gomorrah" — Italy's entry for best foreign film, which just swept the European Film Awards, winning five, including best picture — you'd think producers would've shipped it sooner to academy members considering it in the directing and writing races. Members of those academy branches (not the full membership) got that DVD around Dec. 20.

Technically, the very last DVD shipped to voters, as far as I can tell, was "Jodhaa Akbar," director Ashutosh Gowariker's magnum opus is competing for best foreign film at BAFTA. It's not India's official entry at the Oscars ("Taare Zameen Par" was submitted), but it's being considered in other categories. It was shipped to one or two academy branches on Saturday, Dec. 27, which was after the academy sent out ballots.

DVD SCREENERS SENT TO THE FULL ACADEMY MEMBERSHIP
(If you know of others that I missed, please email me at GoldDerby@gmail.com)

DEC 23 - "Australia "

DEC 22 - "In Bruges"

DEC. 19-22 — "Seven Pounds"<

The Daily Beast reports that it's obtained a private text message in which "Mickey Rourke bashes Sean Penn — his chief rival in the Oscar race — as a 'homophobe' and an 'average' actor. "

Columnist Gerald Posner says a Los Angeles entertainment honcho showed him the text message, which read: "Look seans an old friend of mine and i didnt buy his performance at all—thought he did an average pretend acting like he was gay besides hes one of the most homophobic people i kno' [sic] "

When asked for a response, Rourke's publicist told Posner that she was "completely unaware of the text" and stressed that the two actors have "been friends for a very long time. Mickey attended the New York premiere of 'Milk' to support Sean and only has the greatest respect for him."

Photos: Fox Searchlight, Focus Features

• Over at AwardsDaily.com , Sasha Stone reviews the surprising backgrounds of some of the front-runners for this year's best director kudos. Sasha serves up an insightful mix of biographical details of the likes of Danny Boyle ("Slumdog Millionaire") and David Fincher ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button") mixed with video evidence of their past achievements. AWARDS DAILY

• Lou Lumenick of the New York Post wonders whether the box office success of "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" will bump "The Dark Knight" from the final five best picture nominees. Says Lou: "With 'Button' now clearly a 'popular' movie as well as an arty one, will Oscar voters want to nominate two of them for best picture? Looking back over the last four years of best picture nominees, only one for each year grossed north of $100 million in North America." NEW YORK POST

• Kris Tapley of InContention.com pens a memo to the Academy voters making his case on five separate issues beginning with "Give Bill Condon and Larry Mark something to work with." By that, Kris means the voters should "embrace the critically acclaimed populist titles of the year and perhaps find the answers to not only reinvigorating your annual telecast, but settling any debate over the film-going passion of your ranks. Show the world you are willing to slap some dust off of your typically safe tastes and that you welcome the idea of evolution." To read the rest of his provocative suggestions INCONTENTION.COM

• My Envelope colleague Scott Feinberg delivers another one of his insightful interviews with award contenders in this podcast with Sir Ben Kingsley. Among the subjects covered in their half hour conversation are "the mixed emotions he felt after 'Gandhi' (he was so good at playing a moral character that, for years, people were reluctant to cast him as an immoral character)" and "the deeply personal things he brought to his most recent performance, opposite Penelope Cruz in the critically acclaimed film 'Elegy.'" To listen FEINBERG FILES

• L.A. Times theater critic Charles McNulty provides an interesting perspective on the stage-to-screen adaptations of "Doubt" and "Frost/Nixon." As per Charles, the plays "haven’t been radically altered, but changes in thematic emphasis, acting style and dramatic pacing might upset viewers silly enough to want to relive their theatrical experiences at the multiplex. The films will also have to contend with the particular snobbery of moviegoers all set to encounter modern drama at its finest." To read his full verdict L.A. TIMES

Photo: Warner Bros.

Twenty years ago, "The Phantom of the Opera" opened on Broadway to mixed reviews, but still went on to win seven Tony Awards, including best musical. The various productions of the show have grossed more than $3 billion to date.

And in the ultimate slap in the face to critics, the tuner became the longest-running show in the history of the rialto in January 2006 and is still running strong. And the show it edged out for this honor? "Cats," which was also penned by composer Andrew Lloyd Webber.

Now the titled tunesmith tells the Times of London that "the button is pushed on the sequel to the world's most lucrative musical. Entitled 'Phantom: Love Never Dies,' it will receive its premiere at the end of next year and will make theatrical history if, as Lloyd Webber intends, it opens in London, Broadway and an Asian city, possibly Shanghai, at the same time."

Michael Musto of the Village Voice isn't the only guru who believes that Clint Eastwood ("Gran Torino") will win best actor at the Oscars. Snooping through The Envelope's Buzzmeter, I see that Anne Thompson of Variety, Jeff Wells of Hollywood-Elsewhere.com and Kris Tapley of InContention.com agree. Thelma Adams of Us Weekly ranks Clint second behind Sean Penn ("Milk").

Hmmmm. Most other pundits rank Clint Eastwood low — down in the fourth position (Sasha Stone of AwardsDaily.com, Lou Lumenick of the New York Post and Ed Douglas of Comingsoon.net) or fifth place (Pete Hammond, Scott Feinberg, Mark Olsen and Patrick Kevin Day of The Envelope, Anthony Breznican of USA Today and Susan Wloszczyna of USA Today.

Personally, I'm not confident about what to think. Right now I've got Clint dangling dubiously in my fifth slot, but I'm tempted to boot him for Richard Jenkins ("The Visitor"), who got a SAG nomination. Clint got snubbed by SAG and the Golden Globes. Yikes — that's serious!

However, looking back over the past three years — 60 Oscar noms for acting in lead and supporting — three contenders did manage to break into the academy derby after being similarly skunked earlier: Tommy Lee Jones ("In the Valley of Elah," 2007), Laura Linney ("The Savages," 2007) and William Hurt ("History of Violence," 2005). Please note: none of them won.

Clint's never received solo acting nominations at the Golden Globes or SAG, come to think of it, but he nonetheless got nominated twice at the Oscars for acting in best-picture nominees "Unforgiven" (1992) and Million Dollar Baby" (2004). So perhaps those snubs are meaningless again this time.

Maybe Clint is cursed just like all of those other actors who won for directing, like Robert Redford ("Ordinary People," 1980), Warren Beatty ("Reds," 1981), Kevin Costner ("Dances with Wolves," 1990), Mel Gibson ("Braveheart," 1995) — even John Huston ("Treasure of the Sierra Madre," 1948), Woody Allen ("Annie Hall," 1977), Richard Attenborough ("Gandhi," 1982) and Syndey Pollack ("Out of Africa," 1985). No actor who's won an Oscar for directing has ever prevailed in a performance category.

Sure, Clint is that rare, enduring superstar who's proved to be a Super Man in many showbiz fields — and "Gran Torino" may be special too. Clint insists that it's his last acting role. Is that enough to get him nominated? And get him a breakthrough, historic win? Currently, he holds four Oscar statuettes, two for directing and two for producing best picture champs "Unforgiven" and "Million Dollar Baby."

Yes, Clint won best actor from National Board of Review, but, come one, so did Campbell Scott ("Roger Dodger," 2002).