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Oscars experts' betting on 'Slumdog Millionaire' and Sean Penn

December 21, 2008 | 11:45 am

Oh, how fickle Hollywood awards can be! Considering her double Oscars nominations last year, Cate Blanchett was recently presumed to be a likely nominee for "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" — until, that is, she got skunked this week by the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Now only one of our six pundits spotlighted here expects her to be nominated at the Oscars. Support for other SAG snubbees like Leonardo DiCaprio ("Revolutionary Road") has also plummeted.

Meryl_streep_kate_winslet2

Curiously, "Milk" didn't suffer from its top snub at the Golden Globes. All pundits continue to list it as one of Oscar's five best-pic rivals. However, "Doubt" and "Revolutionary Road" took hits after being snubbed in the best-pic race at, respectively, the Globes and Critics Choice Awards. Each film gets only one vote from our six Oscarologists.

Those half-dozen pundits are Edward Douglas (Comingsoon.net), Mark Harris (Entertainment Weekly), Mark Olsen (contributor, The Envelope), Anne Thompson (Variety), Tom Tapp (TheDailyBeast.com) and me. See more of their predix in other categories plus the views of our many other Oscars seers at the Buzzmeter.

In the best-picture race, "Slumdog Millionaire" (three votes) leads "Benjamin Button" (two) and "Milk" (one). Sean Penn ("Milk") romps over the best-actor track (five top votes), while the lead-actress matchup looks like an even-handed diva smackdown between Meryl Streep ("Doubt") and Kate Winslet ("Revolutionary Road"). Speaking of Winslet, I'm still citing her for "Rev Road" but believe there's a good chance she'll be nominated in lead instead for "The Reader."

BEST PICTURE Douglas Harris Olsen O'Neil Thompson Tapp
'Benjamin Button'

2

2

1

2

3

1

'Dark Knight'

4

5

5

3

4

 

'Doubt'

 

 

 

 

 

5

'Frost/Nixon'

 

4

4

5

5

3

'Milk'

3

3

3

4

1

4

'Revolutionary Road'

5

 

 

   

 

'Slumdog Millionaire'

1

1

2

1

2

2

BEST ACTOR Douglas Harris Olsen O'Neil Thompson Tapp
Leo DiCaprio, 'Revolutionary Road

 

 

 

5

 

Clint Eastwood, 'Gran Torino'

4

 

5

4

1

2

Richard Jenkins,

'The Visitor'

 

5

 

  

 

  

Frank Langella, 'Frost/Nixon'

3

3

3

2

3

3

Sean Penn, 'Milk'

1

1

1

1

2

1

Brad Pitt, 'Benjamin Button'

5

4

 

5

 

5

Mickey Rourke, 'The Wrestler'

2

2

2

3

4

4

BEST ACTRESS Douglas Harris Olsen O'Neil Thompson Tapp
Anne Hathaway, 'Rachel Getting Married'

3

2

3

2

 

2

Cate Blanchett, 'Benjamin Button'

4

 

 

 

 

 

Sally Hawkins, 'Happy-Go-Lucky'

2

4

4

4

5

 
Angelina Jolie, 'Changeling'

 

 

 

5

 

4

Melissa Leo, 'Frozen River'

 

5

 

 

4

 

Meryl Streep, 'Doubt'

3

1

1

3

2

1

Kristin Scott Thomas, 'I've Loved You So Long'

5

 

5

 

3

5

Kate Winslet, 'Revolutionary Road'

1

3

2

1

1

3

Photos: Miramax, Paramount Vantage


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