Oscars experts' betting on 'Slumdog Millionaire' and Sean Penn
Oh, how fickle Hollywood awards can be! Considering her double Oscars nominations last year, Cate Blanchett was recently presumed to be a likely nominee for "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" — until, that is, she got skunked this week by the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Now only one of our six pundits spotlighted here expects her to be nominated at the Oscars. Support for other SAG snubbees like Leonardo DiCaprio ("Revolutionary Road") has also plummeted.
Curiously, "Milk" didn't suffer from its top snub at the Golden Globes. All pundits continue to list it as one of Oscar's five best-pic rivals. However, "Doubt" and "Revolutionary Road" took hits after being snubbed in the best-pic race at, respectively, the Globes and Critics Choice Awards. Each film gets only one vote from our six Oscarologists.
Those half-dozen pundits are Edward Douglas (Comingsoon.net), Mark Harris (Entertainment Weekly), Mark Olsen (contributor, The Envelope), Anne Thompson (Variety), Tom Tapp (TheDailyBeast.com) and me. See more of their predix in other categories plus the views of our many other Oscars seers at the Buzzmeter.
In the best-picture race, "Slumdog Millionaire" (three votes) leads "Benjamin Button" (two) and "Milk" (one). Sean Penn ("Milk") romps over the best-actor track (five top votes), while the lead-actress matchup looks like an even-handed diva smackdown between Meryl Streep ("Doubt") and Kate Winslet ("Revolutionary Road"). Speaking of Winslet, I'm still citing her for "Rev Road" but believe there's a good chance she'll be nominated in lead instead for "The Reader."
| BEST PICTURE | Douglas | Harris | Olsen | O'Neil | Thompson | Tapp |
| 'Benjamin Button' |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
| 'Dark Knight' |
4 |
5 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
|
|
'Doubt' |
|
|
|
|
5 |
|
| 'Frost/Nixon' |
|
4 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
3 |
| 'Milk' |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
4 |
| 'Revolutionary Road' |
5 |
|
|
|
||
| 'Slumdog Millionaire' |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
| BEST ACTOR | Douglas | Harris | Olsen | O'Neil | Thompson | Tapp |
| Leo DiCaprio, 'Revolutionary Road |
|
|
4 |
5 |
|
|
| Clint Eastwood, 'Gran Torino' |
4 |
|
5 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
|
Richard Jenkins, 'The Visitor' |
|
5 |
|
|
|
|
| Frank Langella, 'Frost/Nixon' |
3 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
| Sean Penn, 'Milk' |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
| Brad Pitt, 'Benjamin Button' |
5 |
4 |
|
5 |
5 |
|
| Mickey Rourke, 'The Wrestler' |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
| BEST ACTRESS | Douglas | Harris | Olsen | O'Neil | Thompson | Tapp |
| Anne Hathaway, 'Rachel Getting Married' |
3 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
|
2 |
| Cate Blanchett, 'Benjamin Button' |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sally Hawkins, 'Happy-Go-Lucky' |
2 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
|
| Angelina Jolie, 'Changeling' |
|
|
|
5 |
4 |
|
| Melissa Leo, 'Frozen River' |
|
5 |
|
4 |
|
|
| Meryl Streep, 'Doubt' |
3 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
| Kristin Scott Thomas, 'I've Loved You So Long' |
5 |
|
5 |
3 |
5 |
|
| Kate Winslet, 'Revolutionary Road' |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
Photos: Miramax, Paramount Vantage
slumdog is still looked down on , as so many people don't understand it
i hope it gets a fair chance at the awards as its hard to judge something that is so completely different in style from the typical Hollywood films
cheers to creativity!
Posted by: DS | January 13, 2009 at 03:09 PM
if danny of slumdog wins the oscar.....its gonna be the best day of my life.......i cried in the end.....i almost fell of my seat......wen i cried...i knew the tears wer tears of joy....the connection that he forms with the mass is some never seen
Posted by: Aditya | January 08, 2009 at 02:18 AM
Go Slumdog!!!!!! By far the year's best film!
Posted by: Sarah | December 28, 2008 at 06:14 AM
Why do the Academy ignore DiCaprio? He's a great actor, he deserves a nomination...
BEST ACTOR;:
Leonardo DiCaprio
Sean Penn
Frank Langella
Mickey Rourke
Clint Eastwood
BEST ACTRESS:
Kate Winslet
Meryl Streep
Anne Hathaway
Kristin Scott Thomas
Cate Blanchett
Posted by: Leila Recchi | December 28, 2008 at 06:14 AM
Over the weekend, I've read several very negative reviews for "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and its lead actor, Brad Pitt, from leading newspaper critics.
Posted by: A M | December 25, 2008 at 08:28 PM
Best Picture: MILK
Best Actor: Sean Penn
Best Actress: Meryl Streep
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet (The Reader)
Director: Gus Van Sant- MILK
Posted by: Gary | December 22, 2008 at 11:08 AM
i dont under stand how you did this please explain
Posted by: ben | December 22, 2008 at 07:20 AM
"Revolutionary Road" and "Doubt" were not snubbed by the Golden Globes. Both received nominations for best picture.
Posted by: Bobby | December 22, 2008 at 07:20 AM
It's great that critics recognize the talents of Sally Hawkins, as they did not snub as many as the year goes to the actress; bode well for an excellent performance and honestly is the most difficult performance of the year, without detracting from the actions of Winslet, Streep, Hathaway and read, who should be their rivals.
I hope more recognition for so unforgettable performance, I'd like to see it in BAFTA and oscar nomination, hopefully.
Go Sally.....
Posted by: Sofía | December 22, 2008 at 07:20 AM
Tom and all the critics. I think you missed several outstanding films. This is how I see the nominations shaping up. cheers! keith
BEST PICTURE
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
FROST/NIXON
THE READER
MILK
DOUBT
BEST ACTOR
BRAD PITT – BENJAMIN BUTTON
FRANK LANGELLA – FROST/NIXON
MICKEY ROURKE – THE WRESTLER
SEAN PENN – MILK
LEONARD DICAPRIO – REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
BEST ACTRESS
MERYL STREEP - DOUBT
KATE WINSLETT – REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
ANNE HATHAWAY – RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
KRISTIN SCOTT THOMAS – I'VE LOVED YOU SO LONG
ANGELINA JOLIE – THE CHANGLING
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
RALPH FIENNES – THE READER
JAMES FRANCO – MILK
PHILLIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN – DOUBT
HEATH LEDGER – DARK KNIGHT
BILL IRWIN – RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
CATE BLANCHETT – BENJAMIN BUTTON
KATE WINSLETT – THE READER
VIOLA DAVIS – DOUBT
MARISSA TOMEI – THE WRESTLER
AMY ADAMS - DOUBT
BEST DIRECTOR
RON HOWARD – FROST/NIXON
STEPHEN DALDRY – THE READER
DANNY BOYLE – SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
GUS VAN SANT - MILK
DAVID FINCHER – BENJAMIN BUTTON
Posted by: keith | December 22, 2008 at 07:20 AM