Yesterday's WGA nominees narrowed the possible winners for the best picture Oscar down to 10. Today's Directors Guild of America nominations have given us a good indication of the final five contenders, which just happen to coincide with the PGA contenders.

The DGA nominees are: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" — David Fincher; "The Dark Knight" — Christopher Nolan; "Frost/Nixon" — Ron Howard; "Milk" — Gus Van Sant; "Slumdog Millionaire" — Danny Boyle.

The five films nominated by the Directors Guild of America tend to be the ones that make the Academy Awards best-picture list. Last year proved to be the rare exception to that rule as DGA contenders "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Julian Schnabel) and "Into the Wild" (Sean Penn) were replaced in the Oscars best picture race by "Atonement" and "Juno."

Over the five previous years, only one film cited by the DGA did not make it into the top Oscar category — in 2006, "Dreamgirls" got bumped by "Letters From Iwo Jima." In fact, there is far more agreement between those two categories than between the DGA list and Oscar's best-director lineup. For example, helmers of foreign-language art-house flicks like "City of God" (Fernando Meirelles) and "Talk to Her" (Pedro Almodovar) may make it into the Oscar race for best director, but that phenom occurs less frequently at DGA. Last year, Julian Schnabel, the American helmer of French-lingo "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly," did get a DGA nod but celebrated director Almodovar has never been cited by DGA.

Since the DGA began handing out awards in 1949, the winning helmer has gone on to take home the Oscar with six exceptions. And one of those snubbed directors –- Ron Howard –- is in contention this year. Back in 1995, he won the DGA for "Apollo 13" and while the film contended for best picture at the Oscars (remember our rule), Howard was not even nominated. Mel Gibson won for directing the best picture champ "Braveheart."

The other five instances of disagreement between the DGA and the Oscars were:

1968 –- DGA to Anthony Harvey for "The Lion in Winter" and Oscar to Carol Reed for "Oliver!"

1972 –- DGA to Francis Ford Coppola for "The Godfather" and Oscar to Bob Fosse for "Cabaret"

1985 –- DGA to Steven Spielberg for "The Color Purple" and Oscar to Sydney Pollack for "Out of Africa"

2000 –- DGA to Ang Lee for "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" and Oscar to Steven Soderbergh for "Traffic"

2002 –- DGA to Rob Marshall for "Chicago" and Oscar to Roman Polanski for "The Pianist"

To predict the DGA remember these factors: The group is comprised of 13,000 members who primarily work in television, not feature films. About 8,000 live in the Los Angeles area — the rest are scattered across the U.S. They are not permitted to receive DVDs, so they must view films at industry screenings or their local cineplex. Considering all that — plus the fact that DGA ballots were shipped the first week of December — how many members do you think had even seen the late December limited releases? And, finally, DGA uses a weighted ballot, not a preferential one. If you don't know the difference, you haven't been reading Gold Derby regularly. Shame, shame!

Photo: Warner Bros.