• Dave Karger of EW has posted his predictions for the Oscar nominees in the top eight categories a little earlier than he would like. As he explains, "Even though two of the most reliable Oscar predictors (the Producers Guild and Directors Guild nominees) haven't been announced yet, my bosses at EW asked me to come up with my forecasted nominees." Dave is one of best Oscarologists around and he has "The Dark Knight" making the top five for best picture while he calls one-time front-runner Kate Winslet, Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway shoo-ins for best-actress nods. He also thinks that helmer Clint Eastwood will have to settle for acting nods for himself in "Gran Torino." ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY

• In the latest installment of their weekly Oscar futures column in New York magazine, the Vultures feast on the ups of "Slumdog Millionaire" — " has, seemingly, not just the most proponents (and critics' awards) but also the fewest haters of any serious contender" — and helmer Danny Boyle — "Of the twentysomething pre-Oscar awards for best director, he's won sixteen" — and the downs of "Revolutionary Road" and stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet — "Reviews weren't as strong as expected, and now everybody's piling on." NEW YORK MAGAZINE

• AwardsDaily.com crunches the box office numbers of the top 10 possible best picture nominees and compares them to the final five from last year. It explores the theory that that the No. 2-grossing film among the eventual nominees prevails and points out indirectly that 35 of the last 50 best picture contenders have grossed between $10 and $100 million by nomination day with 11 above that and only four below it, adding, "In light of those stats, 'Revolutionary Road' and 'The Wrestler' need to go wide and start raking in some cash, and fast." AWARDS DAILY

• My envelope colleague Scott Feinberg analyzes those dozen instances over the past decade when a performer was nominated by both the Golden Globes and SAG and then got snubbed by the Oscars and, perhaps even more importantly, those 15 times when the reverse happened with surprise Academy Award nominations for previously passed-over performers. With that info in mind, he then lists a lucky 13 who may have been overlooked so far in the kudos race but could still get good news on nomination morning (Cate Blanchett in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," Michael Shannon in "Revolutionary Road") while flagging 15 more whose luck may have run out (Amy Adams in "Doubt," Robert Downey Jr. in "Tropic Thunder"). Don't be surprised if Kathy Bates ("Revolutionary Road") rallies from early snubs. She's not only a past best-actress champ ("Misery," 1990), but former vice chair and governor of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. THE FEINBERG FILES

• The three New York Times film critics — Manohla Dargis, Stephen Holden and A.O. Scott — are not members of the Gotham circle bestowing their top prizes Monday night. However, as with all the oh-so-serious cineastes who pooh-pooh the Oscars, this trio also wants to influence who gets nominated. To that end, they have penned a piece entitled, of course, 'For Your Consideration, Academy.' Of the three, Scott has the most realistic list, touting such pictures as "Milk" "Wall-E." Dargis, with the exception of "The Dark Knight," focuses on obscure features like "Silent Light", a story of Mexican Mennonites. And Holden holds out hope for last year's snubbed foreign film entry "4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days." NEW YORK TIMES

• As David Carr, aka the Carpetbagger, writes, in his usual sardonic style, "There are seven weeks to go before the Academy Awards ceremony, and for those who claim to follow such things — would-be experts who pontificate about which movie will win best picture or who seems like a lock for best supporting actor — peer pressure is mounting to have seen all the movies that could be in contention. But Hollywood and the people who show its films to the world seem to be doing everything in their power to make sure that it’s difficult. Seeing all the films that may receive Oscar nods this season requires a single-mindedness bordering on mania, while getting a seat in the front of a theater is akin to an assault of Tora Bora." He proceeds to tell all about his misadventures in Manhattan when "a trip to the modern multiplex has become a cinematic smorgasbord, a groaning board." NEW YORK TIMES

Photos: Warner Bros., Paramount Vantage