Oscars nominations predictions: Smackdown!
Two of our forum moderators make bold Academy Awards predictions here while forecasting tomorrow's Oscars nominations. I've pitted them against each other: Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria.
BEST PICTURE
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" - RL, CB
"The Dark Knight" - RL
"Frost/Nixon" - RL, CB
"Milk" - RL, CB
"The Reader" - CB
"Slumdog Millionaire" - RL, CB (WINNER = RL, CB)
ROB'S COMMENTARY: I am reluctant to pick "The Dark Knight" over what I feel will most likely be in that fifth Oscars slot –- "Gran Torino" (or "The Reader" at a stretch). However, with the almost across-the-board guild support, and the tech branches seemingly behind this film, I am backing it to break through and take that fifth slot. It would be a great day to see any of the other four so-called "locks" not make the grade, as these kinds of surprises tend to happen year after year, with nobody foreseeing them. But maybe we shouldn’t even bother with five nominees –- "Slumdog Millionaire" will win. Period.
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: Four of these films seem safe, with all of the support they have received from the guilds, Globes, critics and BAFTA. "The Dark Knight" might well be the overall leader in Academy Award nomination totals, but I think the snubs by BAFTA, Globes and SAG in the main race are significant. "Wall-E" is the other box-office champ with a real shot at the fifth slot, but it seems to be destined to stay just in the animated feature race (yet again). I honestly don't know what to do with "Doubt," but just can't imagine it getting this competitive fifth slot (even though it has that impressive SAG ensemble nod). Other films might be making a charge ("Gran Torino," "The Wrestler"), but I've got a real feeling that "The Reader" is being underestimated in its appeal. It is among the last screeners being viewed, has Harvey Weinstein pushing for it, has the late Sydney Pollack and Anthony Minghella as producers, has a potential Oscar-winning performance by Kate Winslet, showed some real support from British voters this week, and on top of all of that, has an Oscar-baiting Holocaust story as its frame.
BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire" -- CB, RL (WINNER = CB, RL)
David Fincher, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" -- CB, RL
Ron Howard, "Frost/Nixon" -- CB, RL
Christopher Nolan, "The Dark Knight" -- CB, RL
Gus Van Sant, "Milk" -- CB, RL
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: I see no reason to go with anything different than the DGA nominees recently announced. Nolan is most likely the most vulnerable and could be replaced by Clint Eastwood, Darren Aronofsky or Stephen Daldry (in that order).
ROB'S COMMENTARY: I agree that the DGA five are most probably it. However, it I were to go for that "lone director" nod, I would lean toward Darren Aronofsky.
BEST ACTOR
Clint Eastwood, "Gran Torino" -- RL, CB
Richard Jenkins, "The Visitor" -- RL, CB
Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon" -- RL, CB
Sean Penn, "Milk" -- RL, CB
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler" -- RL, CB (WINNER = RL, CB)
ROB'S COMMENTARY: I almost picked Brad Pitt, who I think deserves a go in this Academy Awards category, but I agree that this will be our likely final five. I only wish that Michael Sheen was given more of a chance, and if there is any justice, Leonardo DiCaprio will receive a well-deserved nod.
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: It is very easy to mark down Langella, Penn and Rourke for their slots. After that, there are 3 men contending for 2 remaining nominations. Eastwood's movie is peaking at just the right moment (and he seems to still be beloved by Oscar voters). So that leaves Pitt and Jenkins fighting it out. The smart money would certainly be on Pitt, who has every possible precursor award/nomination and is the title character in a Best Picture contender. I loved his performance but can see how voters might hold it against him that so much of it is created by the technicians. I think Jenkins has a lot of No. 1 votes on his side so will go with him in a surprise upset over Pitt.
BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married" -- RL, CB (WINNER = RL)
Sally Hawkins, "Happy-Go-Lucky" -- RL, CB
Angelina Jolie, "Changeling" -- RL
Melissa Leo, "Frozen River" -- CB
Meryl Streep, "Doubt" -- RL, CB (WINNER = CB)
Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road" -- RL, CB
ROB'S COMMENTARY: What a competitive group this year –- with Cate Blanchett poised to upset and nab a surprise nod, along with Melissa Leo.
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: Other than Streep, I don't think anybody is 100% guaranteed to make this very competitive lineup this year. A BFCA win for Hathaway and Globe wins for Hawkins and Winslet really help their cases on my predictions list. That fifth slot is almost impossible to predict. Angelina Jolie has done everything necessary with the precursors. Melissa Leo and Kristin Scott Thomas have tons of support and probably many No. 1 votes on the Oscar ballots. Cate Blanchett should never be underestimated and is actually in a big Oscar contender this time (but I think the BAFTA snub is telling). I am just guessing and using the well-deserved SAG nom as a guide to place Leo in my 5th slot.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, "Milk" -- RL, CB
Robert Downey Jr., "Tropic Thunder"-- RL, CB
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight" -- RL, CB (WINNER = RL, CB)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt" -- RL, CB
Dev Patel, "Slumdog Millionaire" -- RL, CB
ROB'S COMMENTARY: I can't imagine who else can break through this category, but I am expecting some surprises, and it is probably going to happen in this category. But let's just call it now, shall we –- Heath must win for one of the most iconic movie performances ever.
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: It is the exact same lineup as SAG, but that does happen sometimes. The only real contender for an upset nod is Ralph Fiennes for "The Reader" (probably replacing Brolin). His biggest problems are that he has three performances in the supporting category and that he has big competition from his own film in David Kross. I guess James Franco is also possible, but this lineup seems very strong to me.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" -- RL, CB
Viola Davis, "Doubt" -- RL, CB
Taraji P. Henson, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" -- RL
Freida Pinto, "Slumdog Millionaire" -- CB
Marisa Tomei, "The Wrestler" -- RL, CB
Kate Winslet, "The Reader" -- RL, CB (WINNER = RL, CB)
ROB'S COMMENTARY: I am hoping that Henson makes the grade here, and don’t hold out much hope for Freida Pinto, although Amy Adams could surprise. I really wish Kate Winslet (as much as I admire her) won’t be nominated in this category –- it’s just not fair to all of the other real supporting players.
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: Everybody is predicting nominations for Winslet, Cruz and Davis. Tomei is pushing hard for her slot and should get brought along with Rourke (although the lack of a nom from SAG is possibly a bad sign). My big surprise of the day will be that Pinto gets swept into the Slumdog lovefest. I was already considering this option for the past 2-3 weeks and then she got the nod at BAFTA. That gave me all the reasons I needed to add her to my predictions. Taraji P. Henson is a strong bet, but I just can't imagine how anybody could mark her No.1 on their ballot. The same goes for Amy Adams, who shouldn't be receiving any No. 1 votes from fans of her own film.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Simon Beaufoy, "Slumdog Millionaire" -- RL, CB (WINNER = RL, CB)
David Hare, "The Reader" -- RL, CB
Peter Morgan, "Frost /Nixon" -- RL, CB
Eric Roth & Robin Swicord, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button -- RL, CB
John Patrick Shanley, "Doubt -- RL, CB
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: With the most likely downfall of "Revolutionary Road," the only other real option is "The Dark Knight," and it could certainly take the place of either "The Reader" or "Doubt."
ROB'S COMMENARY: I agree that these will be the most likely nominees in this category, with "Revolutionary Road" the spoiler.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Woody Allen, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" -- RL, CB
Dustin Lance Black, "Milk" -- RL, CB (WINNER = RL, CB)
Tom McCarthy, "The Visitor" - -CB
Nick Schenk, "Gran Torino" -- RL
Robert Siegel, "The Wrestler" -- RL, CB
Andrew Stanton & Pete Docter, "Wall-E" -- RL, CB
ROB'S COMMENTARY: I wanted to pick "Happy-Go-Lucky," but I can't seem to find room for it. Ditto "The Visitor," "Burn After Reading," "Rachel Getting Married," "Changeling" and "In Bruges."
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: I am probably ignorant for leaving off the Coen Brothers since they received screenplay nominations from both WGA and BAFTA. They were so well-rewarded last year and the fact that this category is overstocked with great work, I'll take a chance and say they don't get nominated this time. Next in line is probably "In Bruges," "Waltz With Bashir," "Happy-Go-Lucky" and maybe "Rachel Getting Married" (but that movie has taken a big tumble in recent weeks).
BOOMER'S OTHER OSCARS PREDICTIONS
ANIMATED FEATURE
"Kung Fu Panda"
"Wall-E" ***
"Waltz With Bashir"
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
"The Baader Meinhof Complex" (Germany)
"The Class" (France) ***
"Departures" (Japan)
"The Necessities of Life" (Canada)
"Waltz With Bashir" (Israel)
ART DIRECTION
"Changeling"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" ***
"The Dark Knight"
"Milk"
"The Reader"
CINEMATOGRAPHY
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"The Reader" ***
"Revolutionary Road"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
COSTUME DESIGN
"Changeling"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"The Duchess" ***
"Sex and the City"
FILM EDITING
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"Frost/Nixon"
"Milk"
"Slumdog Millionaire" ***
MAKEUP
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" ***
"The Dark Knight"
"Tropic Thunder"
ORIGINAL SCORE
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"Defiance"
"Frost/Nixon"
"Slumdog Millionaire" ***
"Wall-E"
ORIGINAL SONG
"Cadillac Records" ("Once in a Lifetime" -- Beyonce Knowles, Amanda Ghost, Scott McFarnon, Ian Dench, James Dring, Jody Sweet)
"Madagascar 2" ("The Traveling Song" -- will.i.am, Hans Zimmer
"Slumdog Millionaire" ("Jai Ho" -- A.R. Rahman)
"Wall-E" ("Down to Earth" -- Peter Gabriel, Thomas Newman)
"The Wrestler" ("The Wrestler" -- Bruce Springsteen) ***
SOUND EDITING
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight" ***
"Iron Man"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
"Wall-E"
SOUND MIXING
"The Dark Knight"
"Iron Man"
"Mamma Mia!"
"Tropic Thunder"
"Wall-E" ***
VISUAL EFFECTS
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" ***
"The Dark Knight"
"Iron Man"
NOMINATION TOTALS
11 for "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
10 for "The Dark Knight"
10 for "Slumdog Millionaire"
7 for "Milk"
6 for "Frost/Nixon"
6 for "Wall-E"
5 for "The Reader"
4 for "Doubt"
4 for "The Wrestler"
3 for "Iron Man"
3 for "Tropic Thunder"
2 for "Changeling"
2 for "Revolutionary Road""
2 for "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
2 for "The Visitor"
2 for "Waltz With Bashir"
WIN TOTALS
5 for "Slumdog Millionaire"
3 for "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
2 for "The Dark Knight"
2 for "The Reader"
2 for "Wall-E"
2 for "The Wrestler"
1 for "Doubt"
1 for "The Duchess"
1 for "Milk"
*****************
ROB L'S OTHER OSCARs PREDICTIONS
ANIMATED FEATURE
"Bolt"
"Wall-E" ***
"Waltz With Bashir"
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
"The Baader Meinhof Complex" (Germany)
"The Class" (France)
"Departures" (Japan)
"Three Monkeys" (Turkey)
"Waltz With Bashir" (Israel) ***
ART DIRECTION
"Changeling"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" ***
"The Dark Knight"
"Milk"
"Revolutionary Road"
CINEMATOGRAPHY
"Australia"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"Revolutionary Road"
"Slumdog Millionaire" ***
COSTUME DESIGN
"Changeling"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" ***
"The Dark Knight"
"The Duchess"
"The Fall"
FILM EDITING
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"Frost/Nixon"
"Milk"
"Slumdog Millionaire" ***
MAKEUP
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" ***
"The Dark Knight"
"Hellboy II: The Golden Army"
ORIGINAL SCORE
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"Defiance"
"Revolutionary Road"
"Slumdog Millionaire" ***
"Wall-E"
ORIGINAL SONG
"Bolt" -- "I Thought I Lost You"
"Gran Torino" -- "Gran Torino"
"Slumdog Millionaire -- "Jai Ho"
"Wall-E" -- "Down to Earth"
"The Wrestler" -- "The Wrestler" ***
SOUND EDITING
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight" ***
"Iron Man"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
"Wall-E"
SOUND MIXING
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"Defiance"
"Iron Man"
"Wall-E" ***
VISUAL EFFECTS
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" ***
"The Dark Knight"
"Iron Man"
Photos: Weinstein Co., Warner Bros.
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I am still in shock about this year's noms. Thank god Mickey & Marisa are both there. Winslet vs Streep in the Actress race should be interesting! The predictions were close except Clint was ignored.
Posted by: Tom | January 22, 2009 at 06:15 AM
Best Film
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
(alternate; Wall-E, The Wrestler)
***************************
Best Director
Danny Boyle(Slumdog Millionaire)
David Fincher(The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button)
Ron Howard(Frost/Nixon)
Christopher Nolan(The Dark Knigt)
Gus Van, Sant(Milk)
(alternate; Darren Aronofsky, Mike Leigh)
****************************
Best Actor
Clint Eastwood(Gran Torino)
Richard Jenkis(The Visitor)
Frank Langella(Frost/Nixon)
Mickey Rourke(The Wrestler)
Sean Penn(Milk)
(alternate; Brad Pitt, Colin Farrel)
****************************
Best Actress
Anne Hathaway(Rachel Getting Married)
Sally Hawkins(Happy Go-Lucky)
Melissa Leo(Frozen River)
Meryl Streep(Doubt)
Kate Winslett(Revolutionary Road)
(alternate; Angelina Jolie, Cate Blanchett)
*****************************
Best Supporting Actor
Robert Downey, Jr.(Tropic Thunder)
Josh Brolin(Milk)
Philip Seymour Hoffman(Doubt)
Heath Ledger(The Dark Knight)
Dev Patel(Slumdog Millionaire)
(alternate; Ralp Finnes, Michael Shannon)
*****************************
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams(Doubt)
Penelope Cruz(Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Viola Davis(Doubt)
Marisa Tomei(The Wrestler)
Kate Winslett(The Reader)
(alternate; Taraji P. Henson, Frieda Pinto)
*****************************
Best Original Screenplay
Happy Go-Lucky(Mike Leigh)
Milk(Dustin Lance Black)
Vicky Cristina Barcelona(Woody Allen)
Wall-E(Andrew Stanton)
The wrestler(Robert D.Siegel)
(alternate; The Visitor, Rachel Getting Married)
******************************
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button(Eric Roth)
Doubt(John Patrick Shanley)
Frost/Nixon(Peter Morgan)
The Reader(David Hare)
Slumdog Millionaire(Simon Beaufoy)
(alternate; Dark Knight, Revolutionary Road)
*******************************
Cinematography
Slumdog Millionaire(Anthony Dod Mantle)
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button(Claudio Miranda)
The Dark Knigt(Wally Pfister)
Revolutionary Road(Roger Deakins)
Australia(Mandy Walker)
(alternate; The Reader, Defiance)
*******************************
Best Film Editing
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button(Kirk Boxter&Angus Wall)
The Dark Knight(Lee Smith)
Frost/Nixon(Daniel P.Hill and Mike Hill)
Slumdog Millionaire(Chris Dckens)
Milk(Eliot Graham)
(alternate; Wall-E, Australia)
*******************************
Best Art Direction
Changeling(James Murakami)
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button(Donald Graham Burt)
The Dark Knight(Nathan Crowley)
Revolutionary Road(Kristia Zea)
Indıana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystall Skull(Guy Hendrix Dyas)
(alternate; Slumdog Millionaire, The Duchess)
*******************************
Best Custume Design
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button(Jacqueline West)
Changeling(Deborah Hopper)
The Duchess(Michael O'Conner)
Revolutionary Road(Albert Walsky)
Australia(Catherine Martin)
(alternate; Dark Knight, Sex And The City)
*******************************
Best Original Score
The Dark Knight(Hans Zimmer and James N.Howard)
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button(Alexandre Desplat)
Slumdog Millionaire(A.R. Rahman)
Wall-E(Thomas Newman)
Milk(Danny Elfman)
(alternate, Revolutionary Road, Defiance)
*******************************
Best Original Song
"The Wrestler" Performed by Bruce Springsteen(The Wrestler)
"Dawn To Earth" Performed by Peter Gabriel(Wall-E)
"I Thought I Lost You" Performed by Miley Cyrus, John Travolta(Bolt)
"Jaiho" Performed by Sukhwinder Singh(Slumdog Millionaire)
"The Call" Performed by Regina Spektor(The Chronicles Of Narnia)
(alternate; Once İn A LifeTime, Gran Torino)
*******************************
Best Sound Mixing
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Wall-E
Quantum of Solace
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
(alternate; Slumdog Millionaire, Defiance)
*******************************
Best Sound Editing
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Wall-E
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Indıana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystall Skull
(alternate; Australia, Quantum Of Solace)
*******************************
Best Visual Effect
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
(alternate; Australia, Hellboy 2)
*******************************
Best Make Up
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Synecdoche, New York
Tropic Thunder
(alternate; The Dark Knight, The Reader)
*******************************
Best Animated Feature Film
Wall-E
Kung Fu Panda
Bolt
(alternate: Waltz With Bashir, Horton)
*******************************
Best Foreign Language Film
The Class(France)
The Baader Meinhof Complex(Germany)
Everlasting Moments(Sweeden)
Waltz With Bashir(Israel)
Three Monkeys(Turkey)
(alternate; The Necessities Of Life, Revanche)
*******************************
Best Documentary Feature Film
I.O.U.S.A
Man On Wire
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble The Water
Blessed Is The Match: The Life and Death Of Hannah Snesh
(alternative; At The Death House Door, Made İn America)
Posted by: Shattered Glass | January 21, 2009 at 09:42 PM