What a difference a few award shows can make in the race for the Oscars. Just a few weeks ago there were still several serious contenders for best picture. "Milk" was the pick for best pic by the Gotham film critics while their LA counterparts went with "Wall-E." Two films — "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and "Frost/Nixon" — led the BAFTA long list with 14 mentions each. And the year-end opening "Gran Torino" was making a mint, pointing to the potential of yet another December derby surprise from veteran Oscar champ Clint Eastwood.

At first only the National Board of Review had singled out "Slumdog Millionaire" as the best picture of the year. Then this little charmer won over both the Broadcast Film Critics and the Golden Globes in quick succession. And this past weekend, the film solidified its front-runner status by being the choice of both the Producers Guild of America and the Screen Actors Guild. Though "Benjamin Button" got a leading 13 Oscar nods, "Slumdog" seems inevitable to take the top prize.

However, the four acting races remain open, to one degree or another. Yes, Sean Penn ("Milk") was right when he said in his SAG acceptance speech last night that the Oscar race was down to him and Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler"). While Penn has also picked up critics' prizes on both coasts, as well as the BFCA award, Rourke won the Golden Globe and has the far more compelling personal narrative. Frank Langella will have the Tony Award he won for the stage version of "Frost/Nixon" to keep him company while "Benjamin Button" star Brad Pitt will at least get to go home with Angelina Jolie and Richard Jenkins ("The Visitor") will be glad just to have been asked to the party.

With Kate Winslet being bumped up to lead at the Oscars for a role in "The Reader" that has won her supporting prizes from the BFCA, Globes and SAG, she is the most serious threat to Meryl Streep ("Doubt") who tied for the lead BFCA prize and won the SAG award outright. Anne Hathaway ("Rachel Getting Married") will have to make do with that half a BFCA award. Angelina Jolie ("Changeling") has Brad Pitt's broad shoulder to cry on and Melissa Leo ("Frozen River") can think of poor "Happy-Go-Lucky" star Sally Hawkins, who couldn't even get an invite from Oscar despite being both the Gotham and LA crix pick and winning a Golden Globe.