Gold Derby's gutsy, 100% accurate Oscars predictions
Comparison shopping is always a good thing. So check out the rival Oscars predictions of Scott Feinberg (Feinberg Files, The Envelope), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), 
David Carr (Carpetbagger, New York Times), Nathaniel Rogers (Film Experience), Kris Tapley (InContention.com), Tariq Khan (FoxNews.com) .
See The Envelope's full list of Oscars nominations.
Picture: "Slumdog Millionaire"
Director, Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Actor: Sean Penn, "Milk"
Actress: Kate Winslet, "The Reader"
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
Supporting Actress: Penélope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black, "Milk"
Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Animated Film: "Wall-E"
Foreign-Language Film: "Departures"
Documentary: "Trouble the Water"
Editing: "Slumdog Millionaire"
Cinematography: "Slumdog Millionaire"
Art Direction: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Costume Design: "The Duchess"
Makeup: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Music Score: "Slumdog Millionaire
Song: "Jai Ho," Slumdog Millionaire
Visual Effects: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Sound Editing: "The Dark Knight"
Sound Mixing: "The Dark Knight"
Live Action Short: "Spielzugland (Toyland)"
Animated Short: "La Maison en Petits Cubes" (NOTE: Changed from Presto" on Feb. 20)
Documentary Short: "The Witness: From the Balcony of Room 306"
RELATED:
Gold Derby's Odds on the top Oscars' races
Experts predict who'll win the Oscars
Experts predict who'll win the Oscars, Part 2
PUNDITS SMACKDOWN VIDEO: Can 'Wall-E' beat 'Milk' for best screenplay at the Oscars?
PUNDITS SMACKDOWN VIDEO: Can Meryl Streep beat Kate Winslet for best actress?
Why 'The Class' won't win best foreign film
Photo: AMPAS
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Hey thanks for the research. I won the $100 pot at my neighbor's Oscar party with your help. Good job. I had 20 out of 22 but had the sense to go for Man on WIre over Still the Water. My daughter thought it was cheating but I said I was just doing my homework!
Posted by: Rickovitz | February 23, 2009 at 09:50 AM
Good job, only three wrong. Good to pick both Departures and Maison on the same list of predictions.
Posted by: Zach | February 23, 2009 at 12:57 AM
i want meryl to win her 3rd oscar - it's long overdue!
Posted by: katy | February 22, 2009 at 05:38 PM
And what's backstage in the Green Room & Dressing Rooms to keep all these Stars going all night long? Terry's Toffee! From Chicago!! 15 flavors of gourmet toffee backstage all night on Oscar night. Visit us at www.terrystoffee.com
Posted by: Terry Opalek | February 21, 2009 at 10:30 AM
Great coverage once again of everything Oscar at the Envelope, we salute you. And will put your predictions to the test in a head-to-head matchup with other Oscar pundits in the annual "Can You Beat the Crowd?" challenge at www.srmedia.com/BeatTheCrowd.
Can Gold Derby edge out The Carpetbagger for Best Predictor?
Posted by: crowdmaster | February 21, 2009 at 10:15 AM
I'm only going by having seen two movies out of the batch: SD and Wrestler, so I'm with Marisa Tomei and Mickey....and Slum Dog to sweep.
Off topic: Mickey was offered $250K for Iron Man 2 -- TAKE IT MICKEY...plus the backend deal and endorsements.
Posted by: Chicago48 | February 21, 2009 at 08:06 AM
I guess I'm really having trouble seeing how Kate Winslet is such a sure thing. She's lost this five times before. That's not a good thing, as many are trumpeting it to be. The same Academy who denied her five times is likely to do it again. Also, to anyone who says 'give it to Kate because of RR', remember that she's nominated for "The Reader". Not RR. JUST "The Reader". And before you start saying that the Academy will keep both performances in mind, remember this: they already snubbed her once for the RR performance.
Winslet just isn't as good in "The Reader", and so many non-actors are going to vote for Meryl Streep. I think this is gonna be tight, but I'd give it to Meryl. Melissa Leo will never win. Ever.
Mickey Rourke will only win if Kate Winslet wins. Notice the trend at most major awards shows: if Winslet wins, Rourke wins. If Penn wins, Streep wins. That hasn't happened in every case, but it has in a lot of them.
I'd be happy with either a Viola Davis or Penelope Cruz win, but something tells me there's been some vote-splitting between Davis and Amy Adams, so I'd give it to Cruz.
And, of course, there's Heath Ledger.
Posted by: Jason | February 21, 2009 at 06:42 AM
I hope you're right about the length of the award show. I remember when 3 hours was normal.
Posted by: Lee Barnathan | February 20, 2009 at 10:14 PM
Thanks, Free! You're right. Fixed now.
Posted by: tomoneil | February 20, 2009 at 09:43 PM
Yeah, that should say SLUMDOG WINS: 7
1. Picture
2. Director
3. Adapted Screenplay
4. Cinematography
5. Editing
6. Score
7. Song
*Not 6
Posted by: Free | February 20, 2009 at 07:22 PM
What's so "gutsty" about these predictions? Looks like all the safe bets. All the ones people assume are going to win.
Posted by: Tim | February 20, 2009 at 05:32 PM
If this all happens it'll be a pretty predictable, boring show. I think there will be a couple of upsets in the acting category. Perhaps Viola Davis for Supporting Actress and Mickey Rourke for Best Actor. I wouldn't be surprised if Meryl won, and I will jump off my balcony if the Academy REALLY does the right thing and awards Melissa Leo.
Posted by: GLENN | February 20, 2009 at 05:01 PM
It takes some balls to make more than one out-on-a-limb prediction.
Posted by: Zach | February 20, 2009 at 02:55 PM