Gold Derby

The inside track on Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and all the award shows.

« Previous Post | Gold Derby Home | Next Post »

Grammy predictions: Jonas Brothers will lose best new artist

February 4, 2009 | 12:51 pm

When it comes time to make Grammy predictions, our forum moderators David "Guru" Schnelwar and Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch usually clash. However, this year they're in perfect harmony on all four top races. Previously, you read their predix for best record and song. Below: races for best album and new artist of the year.

Favorite - Robert Plant & Alison Krauss, "Raising Sand"
Possible - Coldplay, "Viva La Vida or Death and All His Friends"

I believe rock voters will be split between Coldplay and Radiohead and urban voters will be split between Lil Wayne and Ne-Yo, leaving Robert Plant and Alison Krauss to win.  Plant and Krauss are nominated in multiple fields like pop, country and folk, which helps their chances.

Voters might mark their ballots for Coldplay throughout the general field.  So they are still possible.

No one expected Herbie Hancock to win here last year.  So anything can happen.



Favorite – "Raising Sand," Robert Plant & Alison Krauss
Possible – "Viva la Vida or Death and All His Friends," Coldplay

Robert Plant never won a Grammy while with Led Zeppelin and he has only two Grammys to date. Krauss is a Grammy favorite (and a past winner here for the "O Brother" soundtrack) and Raising Sand got fantastic reviews, so I think Plant/Krauss will easily prevail here. If they lose, it’ll be to Coldplay, who will surely win multiple Grammys this year. Watch out for Lil Wayne’s "Tha Carter III" though. It’s one of the best-reviewed (and bestselling) albums of 2008, but Grammy voters still have a bias toward urban music in the general field.

Favorite - Adele
Possible - Duffy

Last year, I was the lone person to predict Taylor Swift instead of Amy Winehouse.  A year later, Taylor Swift has the No. 1 album in the U.S. for six weeks and counting, and Amy Winehouse's future musical status is a mystery.

One thing I learned from predicting Taylor Swift last year is that only twice in 20 years has an artist with one nomination won best new artist — Milli Vanilli in 1989 and Shelby Lynne in 2000.  This is what hurts the Jonas Brothers' chances, despite being the biggest name and seller in this category.

Lady Antebellum and Jazmine Sullivan are not crossover enough to win.

It is between Adele and Duffy.  Adele has the upper hand because she is nominated for record of the year and song of the year.  But do not count out Duffy.  She is a critical favorite and still poses competition.

Favorite  - Adele
Possible – Jonas Brothers

Adele’s exposure from "Saturday Night Live" garnered her four unexpected Grammy nominations; I think her nods for record, song and pop female make her a favorite here. Watch out for the Jonas Brothers though. They are easily the most recognizable name in this category, and they’ve been campaigning hard to win this Grammy.


Our Forum Pundits Pick Coldplay to Win Grammys for Record and Song of the Year

See a List of Grammy Nominees

See Grammy Predix from L.A. Times Writers

Photos: Wire Image, NARAS

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.