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Oscars predictions: Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke in a real heavyweight bout

February 15, 2009 |  9:39 pm

Oscar_predictions_academy_awards_ne

Check out The Envelope's Buzzmeter, where our shrewd Oscar seers are posting updated predix. Below is a random sampling with a few surprises. While Sean Penn ("Milk") leads among all of our pundits, Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler") gets the backing of most of these leading Oscarologists for best actor.

Prognosticators featured in our chart below: Thelma Adams (Us Weekly), Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope), Mark Olsen (The Envelope), Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily.com), Kris Tapley (InContention.com), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com).

BEST PICTURE Adams Hammond Olsen Stone Tapley Wells
'Benjamin Button'

3

2

3

2

3

4

'Frost/Nixon'

5

5

4

4

5

5

'Milk'

2

5

2

3

2

2

'The Reader'

4

3

5

5

4

3

'Slumdog Millionaire'

1

1

1

1

1

1

BEST ACTOR Adams Hammond Olsen Stone Tapley Wells

Richard Jenkins, 'The Visitor'

4

4

5

5

4

3

Frank Langella, 'Frost/Nixon'

3

3

3

3

3

4

Sean Penn, 'Milk'

1

1

2

2

2

2

Brad Pitt, 'Benjamin Button'

5

5

4

4

5

Mickey Rourke, 'The Wrestler'

2

2

1

1

1

1

BEST ACTRESS Adams Hammond Olsen Stone Tapley Wells

Anne Hathaway, 'Rachel Getting Married'

4

5

3

3

3

3

Angelina Jolie, 'Changeling'

5

3

5

5

5

5

Melissa Leo, 'Frozen River"

3

4

4

4

4

4

Meryl Streep, 'Doubt'

2

2

2

2

2

1

Kate Winslet, 'The Reader'

1

1

1

1

1

2

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Adams Hammond Olsen Stone Tapley Wells

Josh Brolin, 'Milk'

4

3

2

3

4

2

Robert Downey Jr. 'Tropic Thunder'

3

2

5

2

2

5

Philip Seymour Hoffman, 'Doubt'

2

4

3

4

5

3

Heath Ledger, 'The Dark Knight'

1

1

1

1

1

1

Michael Shannon, 'Revolutionary Road'

5

5

4

5

3

4

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Adams Hammond Olsen Stone Tapley Wells

Amy Adams, 'Doubt'

5

4

5

5

5

Penelope Cruz, 'Vicky Cristina Barcelona'

1

1

1

1

1

1

Viola Davis, 'Doubt'

2

2

2

4

2

2

Taraji P. Henson, 'Benjamin Button'

4

5

4

3

3

4

Marisa Tomei, 'The Wrestler'

3

3

3

2

4

3

Photos: Focus Features, Fox Searchlight

The comments to this entry are closed.

Comments

I hope mick "Ram Jams" Penn at the oscars, he deserves it just as much as ledger does for supporting, those two roles were magic on screen, Rourke and Ledger made there characters truly come to life and no one did a better job then them, no one!

I hope you are right, Ross. i am so pulling for Rourke to pull off the win. Randy the Ram is a character for the ages and only Mick could have given that role so much heart.

First, check again! It's three times. In 2002 Adrien Brody lost the SAG to Sean Penn. So, it's three times.

Then again:

Stop with the history thing! Just check what the mood is! Right now everything's working for Rourke! When Hilary Swank was nominated for Boys Don't Cry, everyone pointed out that only ONCE (!) the SAG winner failed to win the Oscar! Annette Bening was the SAG winner and she was in a best picture favorite! What happened? Bening lost. Swank just had way too much attention! Rourke has it now! Penn won the SAG because it was a way to honor a film and because he lost the times he was nominated before. But I believe Rourke has the Oscar!

Um, to the person below me, you're forgetting about 2002, when Daniel Day-Lewis won the SAG for "Gangs of New York" and Adrien Brody won the Oscar for "The Pianist"

Only twice since the Screen Actors Guild began doling out acting awards has it failed to predict the Oscar winner in the leading man category. Both times, the circumstances were a bit peculiar.

In 2001, for example, the Guild gave its top male acting prize to Benicio del Toro for Traffic. Del Toro went on to win an Oscar for the same role, but in the supporting category. The leading male Oscar went to Russell Crowe for Gladiator.

Then in 2004, the Guild gave its top award for a male actor to Johnny Depp for Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl. Movies based on comics, cartoons and theme park rides aren’t generally recognized at the Academy Awards (save for the transcendent performance of Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight, of course). Penn rightly won the Oscar that year for Mystic River.

Every other year, the Guild has been spot on in this category.

The trend will hold this year.


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